Estimated Build Date Graph

[FirstOnRaceDay]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.

so baring any further delays heres what i got .

first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)

so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.

now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly) updated May 25, 2022

so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)

i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at dealer with lots of orders move your time line later. If your at a dealer with fewer orders move it earlier.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.

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[Dads_bronze_bronco]

Two bad we can’t break this down by two door vs four and soft vs hard top.

I think given an ability to only produce 50-75% of the hard tops required the timeline for hard tops is probably 1.5 to 2x the estimated fulfillment rates by timestamp. Example - I am first 24 hours afternoon 7/14 two door reservation - at this point I think I’ll be produced when the 120000th bronco is produced insteadof the 80000th. 40000 less constrained mostly soft tops will fill in before me.

 

[Compta38]

no way this applies to Granger or SAC folks, though I would love to be scheduled next round.

 

[ATLbronco]

Two reactions:
1. where is the reservation date data coming from?
2. I think the major flaw in your projection is the assumption that the builds are being made in order of reservations.. I'm not sure anyone fully understands what is happening in the black box analysis that is producing build dates for specific orders, but it is clear that reservation time stamp is not the single determining variable (or possibly even the most significant one - see the countless threads discussing dealer allocations, changing commodity constraints, etc)

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Two reactions:
1. where is the reservation date data coming from?
2. I think the major flaw in your projection is the assumption that the builds are being made in order of reservations.. I'm not sure anyone fully understands what is happening in the black box analysis that is producing build dates for specific orders, but it is clear that reservation time stamp is not the single determining variable (or possibly even the most significant one - see the countless threads discussing dealer allocations, changing commodity constraints, etc)

Reservation data from articles from July 2020. And comparing that to the reservation tracker here on the site.

but agree this doesn’t do a full breakdown of which builds are done first ie hard top vs soft etc.
but just to give people an idea.

i know theres been people complaining about the raptor coming out. “But wheres mine?” I think most of the orders will be fulfilled BEFORE the raptor starts production this fall/winter

 

[Silver-Bolt]

Reservation date isn't relevant if the dealer doesn't have allocations. Estimated delivery date also assumes that there are no parts constraints.

 

[kevin.gt]

Nice work but I think you need a separate chart for each dealership

edit: and then maybe by trim
edit: and maybe two separate lists for walk ins vs. reservations
edit: and maybe a button that just scrambles up all plots

 

[Waiting for 4th Bronco]

Nice work, but still doesn't explain why folks are walking in to dealers without reservations and getting build dates in a couple of months. Even for Base 2dr. like I ordered.

 

[HotdogThud]

Not trying to be a troll (I know, tall order for me), but how does this factor in the rando's walking in off the street to dealers and ordering mid-december and then getting a build date 3 weeks later?

 

[Bdockins]

no way this applies to Granger or SAC folks, though I would love to be scheduled next round.

Took Tow off my Sac yesterday.
hoping for Summer at this point.

 

[Bdockins]

Not trying to be a troll (I know, tall order for me), but how does this factor in the rando's walking in off the street to dealers and ordering mid-december and then getting a build date 3 weeks later?

That’s the allocation factor. And there isn’t a solid data point on that either.

 

[Doum]

My god.Ordered mine sept 6 2021.Received 22 nov 2021.I am lucky
4 doors Big Bend,soft top,V6,towing package

 

[dbeyers]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.

so baring any further delays heres what i got .

first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)

so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.

now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly)

View attachment 254714
so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)

i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.

it is important to note that some options may take longer to build than others like
Hardtop vs soft top, 2 door vs 4 door, towing packages etc.

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take

Where did the data come from?

 

[DaveH]

This is helpful high level information. Thanks for putting it together. However, it doesn't consider constraints or allocation. I've been trying to aggregate allocation information on this thread.
https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/threads/dealer-backlogs-which-dealers-can-deliver-fastest.34813/

Haven't received much input yet.

 

[Compta38]

Took Tow off my Sac yesterday.
hoping for Summer at this point.

I'm currently #16 in a sea of Badlands with Lux. I'm hoping having only high package gets me in sooner but at this point I'm just shooting for summer as well. If it hits fall I'm going to 99 again and wait for 2023s. Hopefully some issues are addressed by then.

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