Estimated Build Date Graph

[FirstOnRaceDay]

So if i read this correctly, I ordered end of December 2021. It should be delivered in June?
Seems awful fast compared to what I've been seeing on here. Lurking for over a year. lol
I'm excited to get this thing. I have a year left on my GMC.

Over half of the reservations were made in the first 24hours.
so if you ordered last month your (in theory) at the end of the line. So your about order number 150,000+++ so closer to the end of the year ~October- December 2022.
but again aside from the other factors such as dealer allocation and part supply

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[22OBX]

That’s the allocation factor. And there isn’t a solid data point on that either.

Agree. If the dealer has allocation more than they have orders, or if they have allocation and no buildable orders, anyone can walk in and order and get scheduled IF it has no constraint. Everything is broken down to the dealer level. Reservations do matter but for the given dealer you selected. If the dealers orders are buildable units then the dealers allocation will be filled based on time stamp of those orders. That’s why you can get orders from some dealers and not others and why some are ordering now and getting scheduled.

 

[lobbs611]

I'd love to believe this chart was even remotely true but we've seen far too much evidence that the changes Ford made to the allocation system has completely broken the reservation system. They could get every reservation filled by the end of this year. They are choosing not to. And to read Mr. Levine's Twitter they don't care either.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Rig

Agree. If the dealer has allocation more than they have orders, or if they have allocation and no buildable orders, anyone can walk in and order and get scheduled IF it has no constraint. Everything is broken down to the dealer level. Reservations do matter but for the given dealer you selected. If the dealers orders are buildable units then the dealers allocation will be filled based on time stamp of those orders. That’s why you can get orders from some dealers and not others and why some are ordering now and getting scheduled.

Right the tricky thing is is how many orders each dealer has too.
Big dealer gets 50 broncos a month
Smaller dealer gets 5 a month.
big dealer has 150 orders
Small dealer has 12 orders.
So big dealer can get yours in 4 months while small dealer can get yours in 3.

i get why they are doing it that way, its to make it fare for dealers to make profits. Every dealer has a sales goal. Its scaled. Smaller dealer needs to make $100k in sales vs big dealer needs $1m in sales. So ford is trying to evenly distribute the broncos to keep them all happy

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

I'd love to believe this chart was even remotely true but we've seen far too much evidence that the changes Ford made to the allocation system has completely broken the reservation system. They could get every reservation filled by the end of this year. They are choosing not to. And to read Mr. Levine's Twitter they don't care either.

Dealers have a bigger say than customers do (sad truth). Yet another reason dealers need to die and go to the Tesla/ Europe model. Stores ran by the company.

 

[22OBX]

Rig

Right the tricky thing is is how many orders each dealer has too.
Big dealer gets 50 broncos a month
Smaller dealer gets 5 a month.
big dealer has 150 orders
Small dealer has 12 orders.
So big dealer can get yours in 4 months while small dealer can get yours in 3.

i get why they are doing it that way, its to make it fare for dealers to make profits. Every dealer has a sales goal. Its scaled. Smaller dealer needs to make $100k in sales vs big dealer needs $1m in sales. So ford is trying to evenly distribute the broncos to keep them all happy

Yep. Every dealer has a performance metric they are measured by with Ford.

 

[Cornbred]

This is what makes this forum great, I can honestly say on the F150 and Super duty forum has anyone ever created anything to this degree, good work.

 

[markregel]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.

so baring any further delays heres what i got .

first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)

so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.

now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly)

View attachment 254714
so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)

i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.

I placed a non-reservation order December 1st. One week later I deleted the hard top and got scheduled the next day for a build week of Jan 31st. Today the tracker is showing its in production and I got the window sticker! Short of any significant delays I should have my Bronco within 3 months of order. Its a non sasquatch Base so that probably helped. I added a few options, HD bumper, brush guard, aux switches.

 

[markregel]

Not trying to be a troll (I know, tall order for me), but how does this factor in the rando's walking in off the street to dealers and ordering mid-december and then getting a build date 3 weeks later?

I'm in that situation. Ordered Dec 1st, dropped the hard top one week later and got a build date the next day!

 

[vrtical]

Sales vs Production

 

[Jonny way]

So made a few graphs to illustrate when you MIGHT expect YOUR bronco to be built based on when you ordered.
using numbers from how many reservations were made and assuming 70% order rate. Comparing that to production numbers which (fingers crossed) have been hovering around 10k units per month for the last 3 months.

so baring any further delays heres what i got .

first orders by day of reservation (first 30 days)

so as you can see the VAST majority of reservations were the first 24hrs after it went live. So if you reserved yours in that first day. Your in that group. Then a steady decline from there.
Total orders is (roughly) 140,000 units. Cant find any GOOD data on it. But roughly 70k of those were reserved in the first 24 hours or half the total.

now production numbers. (Will be updated Monthly)

View attachment 254714
so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)

i know thats a LONG time meaning some people will be waiting 24+ months from the time of reservation to delivery. But thats what happens when you have the hottest vehicle in 30 years mixed with a global supply chain issue.
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.

This may help graphically...tell me if I am using your numbers correctly?

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

This is what makes this forum great, I can honestly say on the F150 and Super duty forum has anyone ever created anything to this degree, good work.

We do our best around here.
definitely got tough when we went from like 2,000 members to 20,000 after the reveal.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

This may help graphically...tell me if I am using your numbers correctly?

CloseZ ill add something similar. Add more color coding and such.

 

[BUCKNUT1]

Well done. There is nothing better than a good graph. One of my favorites:

 

[Jonny way]

Well done. There is nothing better than a good graph. One of my favorites:

THE FALL OF THE German ARMY...I LIKE IT

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