📈 Bronco January 2022 Sales & Production Numbers: 8,101 Sold / 12,938 Produced

[22OBX]

We all know it re

So Ford shouldn't build a single Bronco until they can do so in order of reservation? They did change the allocation rules, that's their bad. But commodity issues are REAL, and not under the control of Ford. I'm a supplier/distributor in the transportation industry, while there are things you can/could do to offset contraints, there a some issues where you're SOL and waiting with everyone else. Ford is no different.

I agree. They are a corporation and are governed as such, there is a board of directors, shareholders. It would never fly. Allocations were always going to be a thing. Especially when Demand > Production. They have too many dealer obligations, guidelines, laws to not allocate regardless of what was said by who. It's a vehicle, and there are other vehicles, but personally I want a Bronco and I'm willing to wait for a Bronco regardless. Just too many factors at play. Realistically, 75,000+ reservations were destined to be MY22 from the get go. If there wasn't a single non res Bronco built, they may have been able to fill ~40,000 of 120,000+ orders in MY21. That would mean they didn't produce and sell ~15,000 bronco's to those that didn't have res. and that wouldn't go over good with shareholders for sure. They have to have sales they have to have production otherwise it is reflected in stock prices. If they drop and there are no investors, there are no new broncos. With that said, I do think they should communicate better and advise to those with early res. dates of WHY their bronco hasn't been scheduled, or at least give them a timeline of when.

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[TNSasquatch]

Just spoke to a Ford rep. Anyone who ordered this year (January) should expect a wait of 6 months to a year. Just reconfirming what we already know.

Another I just spoke to a rep comment....

Drink!! Cheers everyone!!

 

[Bronc-O]

It's nuts they can build 13k in a month yet many of us that reserved the first few hours have no clue when our orders will even be looked at.

According to Long McArthur Ford, that production number is supposed to more than double for March and April. Their info has been pretty reliable, so we'll see.

 

[BenderSquatch]

I am not an accountant - are you saying it’s not possible, given that these are 99.99% finished? Got to be “ready to ship”? Part of me would like to believe that as it would mean “production” was actually much higher than 12,900 which would be great news.

In accounting, the choices are binary. If a product is still under production waiting for a bolt, then it's a WIP inventory not ready to sell. Plus, there are inherent risks selling an unfinished vehicle. Lemon laws, lawsuits, bad publicity and disgruntled customers. Basically like serving customers unfinished food, bad for business.

As for their investors?

If say Ford sells this unfinished product, then they are gonna have to increase their warranty expense allowance to cover future work at dealerships. This means profit/vehicle will be lower since they have cover any future expenses caused by the missing parts.

So, in their P&L they have to lower profits for the period by the estimated allowance, amount and on their balance sheets, the hey will carry a liability, since they will owe the buyers for parts, labor and other overhead associated with the fix.
Very risky for Ford to ship those incomplete vehicles.
Most likely that's why production numbers are low to avoid that minefield coz too much unfinished inventory requires storage costs and overhead like space, security weather damage etc. This obviously reduces profits.

 

[Compta38]

According to Long McArthur Ford, that production number is supposed to more than double for March and April. Their info has been pretty reliable, so we'll see.

Did they post that in a video or something? link?

 

[dbeyers]

In accounting, the choices are binary. If a product is still under production waiting for a bolt, then it's a WIP inventory not ready to sell. Plus, there are inherent risks selling an unfinished vehicle. Lemon laws, lawsuits, bad publicity and disgruntled customers. Basically like serving customers unfinished food, bad for business.

As for their investors?

If say Ford sells this unfinished product, then they are gonna have to increase their warranty expense allowance to cover future work at dealerships. This means profit/vehicle will be lower since they have cover any future expenses caused by the missing parts.

So, in their P&L they have to lower profits for the period by the estimated allowance, amount and on their balance sheets, the hey will carry a liability, since they will owe the buyers for parts, labor and other overhead associated with the fix.
Very risky for Ford to ship those incomplete vehicles.
Most likely that's why production numbers are low to avoid that minefield coz too much unfinished inventory requires storage costs and overhead like space, security weather damage etc. This obviously reduces profits.

Great explanation … to me the fact that they continue to produce WIP instead of shutting down indicates Ford sees a relatively short (1 - 2 month) “chip hold” vs a longer term “chip shortage”. I am heartened that they knocked out almost 13,000 vehicles (apparently except for certain chips). Maybe this indicates the second Webasto plant is starting to produce limited quantities.

 

[Bronc-O]

Did they post that in a video or something? link?

In one of their weekly videos about 2 months ago. Sorry, I don't have a link.

 

[$occercoach]

Bronco January 2022 Sales & Production Highlights

• Bronco Sales: 8,101 vehicles. Sales (YTD): 8,101 vehicles.
  • January 2022 sales represent a -11.4% decrease from December 2021.
• Bronco Production: 12,938 vehicles. Production (YTD): 12,938 vehicles.
  • January 2022 production represents a 9.24% increase from December 2021.

Do those January builds include all the ones that are on a chip hold??

 

[dbeyers]

Do those January builds include all the ones that are on a chip hold??

Read above?

 

[BenderSquatch]

Great explanation … to me the fact that they continue to produce WIP instead of shutting down indicates Ford sees a relatively short (1 - 2 month) “chip hold” vs a longer term “chip shortage”. I am heartened that they knocked out almost 13,000 vehicles (apparently except for certain chips). Maybe this indicates the second Webasto plant is starting to produce limited quantities.

I think so too, a few days wait or a couple of weeks is great. You just wanna have minimum WIP at month-end for your inventory.

Building partial vehicles to pile up gets quite expensive in many ways with overhead. Luckily, they can produce multiple vehicles at their assembly lines to minimize downtime and furloughs

 

[ejinx]

What gets my goat is that there was a shortage on hard tops so they didn’t build mine, and now that they have my hard top there’s a shortage of chips… because they’ve been churning out base Broncos to send to people that order last month. So what, I have to wait until every last part is available at the same time?

Bullshit. I reserved mine day one. I paid a fee, I committed. Earmark my parts when they are available and when it adds up to 100% of a bronco, build it. It sucks to see someone walk in and buy a Bronco that I’ve been waiting on for 1.5 years out from under me, then be told mine is delayed because there’s a chip shortage. MFer, THAT ONE HAD A CHIP. That chip should have been in my Bronco. They’re straight shitting on the customers that were here first.

I get that they want to sell whatever they can produce, by my RESERVATION should have RESERVED the shit to make my truck.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

What gets my goat is that there was a shortage on hard tops so they didn’t build mine, and now that they have my hard top there’s a shortage of chips… because they’ve been churning out base Broncos to send to people that order last month. So what, I have to wait until every last part is available at the same time?

Bullshit. I reserved mine day one. I paid a fee, I committed. Earmark my parts when they are available and when it adds up to 100% of a bronco, build it. It sucks to see someone walk in and buy a Bronco that I’ve been waiting on for 1.5 years out from under me, then be told mine is delayed because there’s a chip shortage. MFer, THAT ONE HAD A CHIP. That chip should have been in my Bronco. They’re straight shitting on the customers that were here first.

I get that they want to sell whatever they can produce, by my RESERVATION should have RESERVED the shit to make my truck.

You ordered a Badlands, Sas, Lux MIC ALL of those options are delayed. As i said.
ford isnt going to cut production to 4000 just so they can build all the higher trim packages first they are going to build what they can.

 

[Compta38]

You ordered a Badlands, Sas, Lux MIC ALL of those options are delayed. As i said.
ford isnt going to cut production to 4000 just so they can build all the higher trim packages first they are going to build what they can.

While I agree that Ford shouldn't cut overall production it seems like EVERY SINGLE scheduling week we get a fresh account from a walk in that had no reservation, placed an order for a heavily constrained Bronco and got scheduled days later.

All we ask is that Ford commit to the customers that supported this launch early the same way we have made a commitment to them. There is no reason a 7/13 res shouldn't have been built by now.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

While I agree that Ford shouldn't cut overall production it seems like EVERY SINGLE scheduling week we get a fresh account from a walk in that had no reservation, placed an order for a heavily constrained Bronco and got scheduled days later.

All we ask is that Ford commit to the customers that supported this launch early the same way we have made a commitment to them. There is no reason a 7/13 res shouldn't have been built by now.

Even if there was no constraints and no dealer issues. There would STILL be ~20,000 people waiting for their new broncos that reserved day 1.

and looking at our list we have on the site. Many were enthusiasts. Ie people like you ordering 2door, or sas, or badlands. Rather then the people that waited a few days and ordered a more basic package.

as for people with similar builds getting theirs already, thats due to dealer allocation. Some people get lucky others not so much.

 

[22OBX]

Not that surprising when you look at the numbers (unfortunately).

They had 190,000 reservations at one point, the vast majority of reservations were placed within the first week of reservations opening. Granted there are probably some who canceled their reservation or never converted their reservation to an order... but there are also more who placed an order without a reservation.

Napkin math says 14-18 months to clear the backlog. They've only been in production since June 2021 (8 months), and to make matters worse the first 3-4 months had so many issues between the component shortages and hard tops that you can't even really consider them full production months.

So... best case scenario: the majority of the July 2020 reservation holders will get their build dates before the end of the summer. Obviously depends on if supply chains hold, which ain't lookin' good right now.

We got a LONG way to go.

2021
~120,000 reservation orders (estimated)
~55,000 produced in 21 (actual)
~35,000 non res orders (actual)
~100,000 to build going in to January

100,000 / 13,000 = 7.5 months assuming no new orders

2022
~13,000 produced (actual)
~8,000 new orders (actual)
New Feb estimated Balance 100,000 - 5,000 = 95,000 orders to build or 7.3 months.

Remember this is total back log if new orders = production this is the total amount of time to clear all orders. If new orders < current production like in Jan 22 it will just adjust down total backlog.

This doesn’t mean everyone will have a bronco in this timeframe. That will all depend on your build and dealer allocation. This is just a estimated calculation of the total backlog and how it may help define a potential delivery timeline. If your with a dealer that oversold based on the allocations they get it could be a longer wait. Example 150 orders and 10 allocations could mean it could take 15 months to fill that dealers orders.

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