Some math to find out delivery timeline for your Bronco

[RG7]

I would be SHOCKED if they convert 30% of these. $100 refundable is a low barrier to entry. Based on zero math at all and just feeling, I’d say you’ll see your bronco sometime in 2021.

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[TJ1007]

(disclaimer: i have failed several math classes)
first off, here are the numbers i will be using:

-bronco reservation numbers started at 10114000

-i, who was late to the party by a few days, have reservation number 10272837 (i hope there is nothing malicious that can be done with that lol)

-quick google search says Ford Michigan Assembly Plant made 350,000 cars in 2017 (i'm too lazy to find out what cars they were making so im just gunna assume they were slapin together fiestas and use the more conservative number of 250,000)

-Ford Michigan Assembly Plant will be making rangers and broncos: hopefully at a 50:50 split

-production (should) start (late?) december (so lets just say january)

-reserved broncos will be made first and in order of the reservation


math part:

250,000 cars and 50% broncos thats 125,000 broncos per year

125,000/365 thats bout 342 broncos a day (wow, those mass producers mass produce at quite a pace)

so

if you have a reservation (like me(not to brag this is relevant)), take your number and do this:

10272837 (my number)-10114000 and my bronco will be the 158,837th bronco made (dear lord)

158,837/342 (broncos a day) and thats bout 464 days untill my bronco is made.

so using math, i should see my bronco sometime around march of 2022.

now, if you don't have a reservation yet, lets just say it is going to be a while before broncos start showing up on dealer lots. here is a random youtube comment from a random ford dealer:

this has been math.

According to ur math I’m less than 200 days. Pretty interesting I reserved mine about 14 hrs after launch

 

[MadMan4BamaNATL]

Guys, reservations are only likely to be fewer than 8000 units at this point. Realistically maybe 6000 between US and Canada.

Bronco is hardly affordable as most units in the launch will be around $45K for passionate buyers. Mine will top $50K+. Not a ton of Ford buyers for this at that price point for a purpose built vehicle.

if they top 25K preorders by Sept 1 Ford will win the luxury car race. These will not be fleet vehicles and we are in a recession with high unemployment to boot.

they can crank out 25K with some ease. Day one guys will take delivery in March 2021.

rest easy gents, the future is coming.

Boy was I waaaayyyy off on this! Ha ha! ?

Only off by around 140,000. Bronco is here to slay the Wrangler baby dragon!

 

[ThePayola]

I would be SHOCKED if they convert 30% of these. $100 refundable is a low barrier to entry. Based on zero math at all and just feeling, I’d say you’ll see your bronco sometime in 2021.

I completely agree. And given the cheap buy-in, I bet there are lots of opportunists who saw the hype and plunked down $100 to get an early reservation in hopes of selling their spot at a premium to someone who can’t stand the wait or can afford to pay to cut in line. No clue whether or not the reservations are transferable, but I’d be surprised if there aren’t plenty of people who jumped on the bandwagon right out of the gate hoping they could make a quick buck.

 

[iamchewby]

I mean, even if they convert 100,000 into orders, by the OP's guesstimate of 250,000 vehicles out of the plant, everyone will get their Bronco in 2021. 83,571 Rangers were sold in 2019 according to Google. Keeping all numbers the same with 100,000 orders and (we'll call it) 84,000 Rangers, that leaves the plant with 66,000 extra vehicles to play with. These numbers are purely made up but I think we'll all be okay

 

[Boston182]

I'll be damned. By your math, it'll only take 24 days for me.

Unlikely, but nice to think about.

 

[den_jkur]

I mean, even if they convert 100,000 into orders, by the OP's guesstimate of 250,000 vehicles out of the plant, everyone will get their Bronco in 2021. 83,571 Rangers were sold in 2019 according to Google. Keeping all numbers the same with 100,000 orders and (we'll call it) 84,000 Rangers, that leaves the plant with 66,000 extra vehicles to play with. These numbers are purely made up but I think we'll all be okay

As per the tweet below from Mike Levine not all of them will be delivered in 2021

 

[JDisFlip]

I completely agree. And given the cheap buy-in, I bet there are lots of opportunists who saw the hype and plunked down $100 to get an early reservation in hopes of selling their spot at a premium to someone who can’t stand the wait or can afford to pay to cut in line. No clue whether or not the reservations are transferable, but I’d be surprised if there aren’t plenty of people who jumped on the bandwagon right out of the gate hoping they could make a quick buck.

The reservations aren't transferable.

Id give the link to the website of the Bronco page, but im on break and dont have time.

Though im fairly certain that it is listed as non-transferable.

 

[iamchewby]

As per the tweet below from Mike Levine not all of them will be delivered in 2021

165,000 reservations will not be converted into orders. They have to plan for 165k, but that's not happening. How many people on this forum alone, have 2 reservations? Are they going to buy 2? No, 99% are not going to buy 2. Of the people I know personally that reserved on opening night, 4 of them have either already cancelled or plan to... leaving me... I'm the only one of my friends that are serious enough to hold on to my res. Let's high ball it and say 50% of reservations (based on the 165k) are converted to orders, which is actually obscenely high, that means there will be 82,500 orders. If their factory can't handle that... we have bigger issues than a delayed B&P.... like I said, we'll be okay

 

[Blitzinger]

I very much have a feeling there's more to it than just this but if this is right, I'm 113,000 so safe? Maybe? hopefully? Regardless, I can wait. More time to save up to put more cash down.

 

[Big L 65]

I’m at 102 number hopefully next summer I get mines

 

[dejones64]

I'm 104.... This is like the waiting list for Lambeau season tix.

LOL, at least the Bronco will be worth the wait.

 

[LarryZiegler]

Something isn't right as I was nowhere near the top of the reservation list and my order sequence line order would be under 200

 

[boom]

(disclaimer: i have failed several math classes)
first off, here are the numbers i will be using:

-bronco reservation numbers started at 10114000

-i, who was late to the party by a few days, have reservation number 10272837 (i hope there is nothing malicious that can be done with that lol)

-quick google search says Ford Michigan Assembly Plant made 350,000 cars in 2017 (i'm too lazy to find out what cars they were making so im just gunna assume they were slapin together fiestas and use the more conservative number of 250,000)

-Ford Michigan Assembly Plant will be making rangers and broncos: hopefully at a 50:50 split

-production (should) start (late?) december (so lets just say january)

-reserved broncos will be made first and in order of the reservation


math part:

250,000 cars and 50% broncos thats 125,000 broncos per year

125,000/365 thats bout 342 broncos a day (wow, those mass producers mass produce at quite a pace)

so

if you have a reservation (like me(not to brag this is relevant)), take your number and do this:

10272837 (my number)-10114000 and my bronco will be the 158,837th bronco made (dear lord)

158,837/342 (broncos a day) and thats bout 464 days untill my bronco is made.

so using math, i should see my bronco sometime around march of 2022.

now, if you don't have a reservation yet, lets just say it is going to be a while before broncos start showing up on dealer lots. here is a random youtube comment from a random ford dealer:

this has been math.

If you are right about the ford bronco sharing the manufacturing plant with a ranger they could temporarily slow down production for rangers to meet demands for ford broncos. They could re make the plant to be producing 75:25 ford bronco and ranger. HOWEVER I do not work in logistics or have ever worked manufacturing and I dont understand the logistical feat to re do a whole a manufacturing plant to meet demand.

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