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MY23 / 2023 Delivery - Serious or Joking?

MyBroncoNotYours

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I’ve been reading comments saying that they expect a MY23/2023 delivery. Is this serious or are people joking?

I placed an order in April (very late obviously) so I don’t expect mine soon but I can’t wait until October 2022 or later. I currently have no car and walk everywhere including work. There are beaches and hikes near me but they are nowhere near walking distance.

I’m fine waiting up to May but beyond that it might be a struggle. I thought about getting a cheap lease while I wait but any short term solution is a waste of money.

From what I understand, there’s still only about 140K preorders but that number is from January. If full production starts in August and presuming 10K units/mo by June 100K will have been produced. I don’t have a constraining build I believe so I would expect even with my late order I might get it earlier than some.

2dr
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2.3L Man
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(Tow and Roof rails but those are short term constraints)
My dealer is a high volume dealer for Ford but somehow I’m only #40 in line (they didn’t tell me out of how many).

what do you think?
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Dads_bronze_bronco

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Most of that is cynical humor. What we don’t know about 2022 is how dealer stock plays into production scheduling versus customer orders. Theoretically at full production, they should be able to get through all the reservations converted to orders next year.
 

dwbronco

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I’ve been reading comments saying that they expect a MY23/2023 delivery. Is this serious or are people joking?

I placed an order in April (very late obviously) so I don’t expect mine soon but I can’t wait until October 2022 or later. I currently have no car and walk everywhere including work. There are beaches and hikes near me but they are nowhere near walking distance.

I’m fine waiting up to May but beyond that it might be a struggle. I thought about getting a cheap lease while I wait but any short term solution is a waste of money.

From what I understand, there’s still only about 140K preorders but that number is from January. If full production starts in August and presuming 10K units/mo by June 100K will have been produced. I don’t have a constraining build I believe so I would expect even with my late order I might get it earlier than some.

2dr
Badlands
2.3L Man
High Pkg
(Tow and Roof rails but those are short term constraints)
My dealer is a high volume dealer for Ford but somehow I’m only #40 in line (they didn’t tell me out of how many).

what do you think?
They (assuming "they" are random nobodies, who have no clue) are probably quite serious about their guess. They also have no clue what they are talking about. That said, it's likely Ford will sell a '23 model, and it's also likely some folks will order it. So, yeah, there will be orders in 2023.
 

Oceannomad

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I’ve been reading comments saying that they expect a MY23/2023 delivery. Is this serious or are people joking?

I placed an order in April (very late obviously) so I don’t expect mine soon but I can’t wait until October 2022 or later. I currently have no car and walk everywhere including work. There are beaches and hikes near me but they are nowhere near walking distance.

I’m fine waiting up to May but beyond that it might be a struggle. I thought about getting a cheap lease while I wait but any short term solution is a waste of money.

From what I understand, there’s still only about 140K preorders but that number is from January. If full production starts in August and presuming 10K units/mo by June 100K will have been produced. I don’t have a constraining build I believe so I would expect even with my late order I might get it earlier than some.

2dr
Badlands
2.3L Man
High Pkg
(Tow and Roof rails but those are short term constraints)
My dealer is a high volume dealer for Ford but somehow I’m only #40 in line (they didn’t tell me out of how many).

what do you think?
Kudos for your dealer telling you you’re #40 in line. I got the total number of reservations but my dealer won’t tell me my place in line
 

TripleB

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Come August, they’ll be pumping them out like crazy. Don’t worry. It’s coming.
 

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Skmac

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I’ve been reading comments saying that they expect a MY23/2023 delivery. Is this serious or are people joking?
Both Im on the front end of reservations but it's looking more and more likely that i'm not getting it this year and maybe I'll get it next spring. So for you as an april reservation I really see it as a late 22 or further out.
 

MorgansRun

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I don't think anyone really knows, plus a lot can change between now and then.
 

RG7

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Your main way to get an estimate is to figure out what that #40 in line really means. How many total orders do they have, how many were they allocated for 2021 (which tells you how many are ahead of you for ‘22 builds).

Edit: but even then that only gives you a rough idea. For example I’m 120ish in line at my dealer and they have about 100ish ‘21 allocations. Given I’m 2D/BD/SQ/2.7 I’m not expecting to see my Bronco in my driveway until this time next year, maybe a little earlier. 7/25 res FWIW.
 

Will2497

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@PREMiERdrum says the expectation is more likely 45K-55K units for 2021, so maybe all reservations will be filled by the end of 2022, but also consider commodity restraints and what not
 

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PREMiERdrum

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There are a few contingency plans in place to ensure that all current reservations are fulfilled before the end of MY2022.
 

AcesandEights

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You can get a pretty good idea if you look at the numbers. They had over 200k reservations prior to the end of 2020, and have continued to take reservations. They had approximately 70% conversion from reservations to orders in March.

The Michigan Assembly Plant has been producing approximately 11k Rangers per month, prior to Bronco production. If they "flip" production and produce 10k Broncos a month, starting in August you have some number by end of year. You've got some "knowns", right.

So, 200k * 70% puts us at 140k orders for 2021 vehicles by March 19.
Producing 10k units a month from August (when they go to full production), is 50k units by end of year. That's about 1/3 of the converted reservations. That puts all converted orders (by March 19) produced by about August/September 2022. So, any reservation not converted by March 19 should begin production sometime around third-quarter 2022. An early 2021 reservation, converted to an order after March 19 should be produced and delivered at the very end of 2022 or beginning 2023.

That's just looking at the knowns. They build them when they have parts, so someone that had a reservation in March and converted right away may get their Bronco first because they have the parts available.

Your build is exactly like mine, 2D Badlands, 2.3/MT, tow, high package. My reservation was early 7/14, converted from reservation to order on the first day. My dealer told me I was in their initial allocation, but with constraints, I may not see my Bronco in 2021. It was important to me to get it in 2021, as a 2021 model, so with all the constraints, hard top issues, I cancelled.

It wouldn't be unreasonable at all that you would see your Bronco in 2023, based on the knowns, but there is really no way of knowing.
 

ZackDanger

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All of the "back of the napkin math" I've seen or done myself, and I feel is honest and accurate, puts all current reservations being fulfilled before the end of 2022.

Global pandemics or commodity shortages, or mass cancellations when the reviews hit or the new 4runner is revealed, will obviously move that line.

$0.02
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