Some math to find out delivery timeline for your Bronco

[regularbronco]

Guys, reservations are only likely to be fewer than 8000 units at this point. Realistically maybe 6000 between US and Canada.

Bronco is hardly affordable as most units in the launch will be around $45K for passionate buyers. Mine will top $50K+. Not a ton of Ford buyers for this at that price point for a purpose built vehicle.

if they top 25K preorders by Sept 1 Ford will win the luxury car race. These will not be fleet vehicles and we are in a recession with high unemployment to boot.

they can crank out 25K with some ease. Day one guys will take delivery in March 2021.

rest easy gents, the future is coming.

Actually, 8000 reservations were exceeded hours after reservations opened. Not sure the cancel or multiple order rate though.

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[EvlNvrDys]

Do you think changing your model will reset your reservation number? Thus pushing back your delivery date.

My 'assumption' (key word) is if you mean trying to change model now, then yes. Only way I see that possible is to cancel current reservation and then create a new one. Now if you mean change at time of order, then I sure as hell hope not because I may very well do it then as well. Some people talk about how Ford plans on doing them in order, more realistically though they'll do it by demand I would think. Which is to pick (1) model run a good chunk of them first, switch to second model and repeat. But I don't work at a vehicle manufacturing plant, so all that is purely speculation.

 

[Imprezive]

If you’re listening to car salesmen at a volume car manufacturer‘s dealer, let me caution you to not do that.

Some dude at a dealership knows nothing, and I mean nothing. Ford doesn’t talk to them, that’s a very leaky ship. They know no more than you right now.

Dealerships want to build hype for guys like us (enthusiasts) for this truck in order to make you move faster, compromise more, and pay them more for the privilege to buy one. $50K is luxury car price point, man. Not a ton of people with that type of coin that aren’t in luxury car dealerships or looking for family haulers.

Bronco isn’t a vehicle built for hauling the kids soccer team. There’s no 3rd row, barely can hold a child seat, etc. Those car buyers can’t buy this vehicle.

Bronco is a toy for men and women who have the money, live active, and want to show that they do shit other than sit at home typing on the internet and watching Netflix.

That’s you, me, and most everyone on this forum, but not many others beyond this active population. Then keep in mind that many of these type of people are tied up paying for the Wrangler they financed over the past 3-5 years and can’t switch on day one.

I even know a ton of guys who won’t take a chance on a first year model; I share some concerns on that too.

Bronco will be popular, but it won’t sell 200K units in year one; more like by year 3 on the market.

Pre-ordering buyers who will actually complete the transaction will be fewer than 30K. If I am off on that, this would mean that Ford has a world beater. The off road market isn’t 400K vehicles annually. There will be some retraction.

I agree but also think we could be surprised. My buddy was going to buy a new G Wagen and is thinking about buying a Bronco instead now. I don’t think the Bronco will be confined to the off roader market. I think it could turn into the new LR Defender as they cool car for wealthy folks.

 

[MadMan4BamaNATL]

I agree but also think we could be surprised. My buddy was going to buy a new G Wagen and is thinking about buying a Bronco instead now. I don’t think the Bronco will be confined to the off roader market. I think it could turn into the new LR Defender as they cool car for wealthy folks.

I can assure you that your friend was not cross shopping a $127K starting price G Wagon with a damn Ford anything man, so don't put that story out there.

My past 7 or 8 cars have been BMWs since 2004, none even close to costing $100K. The people who buy these overpriced vehicles such as a G Wagon or BMWs, etc won't be caught dead in a Ford dealership. Regular car dealerships and their service centers are horrible places and far too down market, never mind the car. Luxury dealerships are nice, clean, pampering, free swag, salesmen laughing at your bad jokes, make you feel like you're in charge and know everything, complement you on the way you look and the size of your package, all that type of crap. I'm being a bit funny here, but you get the idea.

Unless talking sports cars or top performance trims, most people buy luxury cars for the badge and status. One thing I hate about BMW (still drive one and wife) are the douche bags who have them and stink up the forums and car clubs. These folks want status and to look cool. Nothing about a Ford to brag about at all; they are purpose built vehicles or status for a different class level. However, I'm not sure I'll buy another Bimmer until I get really old, or want to feel pampered again with the car experience; doubt it!

A G wagon is well known to be not too good off road; its an overlander and not a very good one. Most buy a Land Cruiser or other Toyota that's not even sold here for that purpose globally. Driving a Benz through remote areas of Africa or South America can get you killed. The G wagon is a status vehicle, nothing more. Just for those who want to look rugged, but don't really get their hands dirty or sweat, or muddy without an entourage catering to them with a warm towel.

 

[level3looper]

I wonder how many First Editions they actually sold. It would be interesting to know if they stopped exactly at 3500 or went over figuring they would have cancellations and folks switching packages. I finally reserved one after two hours of site crashing. Received number 101261xx.

I don't suppose it makes sense that your First Edition #Res number would be bigger than mine since I went for the Badlands. I think the reservation numbers are sequential - in that they increase based simply on when the order was technically received\processed. And that could have been disrupted by the many problems they had at that early time. Or, I simply got my Badlands order in earlier. I'm seeing claims in the other spreadsheet thread that people who ordered multiple of the same trim got one #Res number. I'm curious if people who ordered 2 different trims? Did they get 1 or 2 reservation numbers?

 

[Imprezive]

I can assure you that your friend was not cross shopping a $127K starting price G Wagon with a damn Ford anything man, so don't put that story out there.

My past 7 or 8 cars have been BMWs since 2004, none even close to costing $100K. The people who buy these overpriced vehicles such as a G Wagon or BMWs, etc won't be caught dead in a Ford dealership. Regular car dealerships and their service centers are horrible places and far too down market, never mind the car. Luxury dealerships are nice, clean, pampering, free swag, salesmen laughing at your bad jokes, make you feel like you're in charge and know everything, complement you on the way you look and the size of your package, all that type of crap. I'm being a bit funny here, but you get the idea.

Unless talking sports cars or top performance trims, most people buy luxury cars for the badge and status. One thing I hate about BMW (still drive one and wife) are the douche bags who have them and stink up the forums and car clubs. These folks want status and to look cool. Nothing about a Ford to brag about at all; they are purpose built vehicles or status for a different class level. However, I'm not sure I'll buy another Bimmer until I get really old, or want to feel pampered again with the car experience; doubt it!

A G wagon is well known to be not too good off road; its an overlander and not a very good one. Most buy a Land Cruiser or other Toyota that's not even sold here for that purpose globally. Driving a Benz through remote areas of Africa or South America can get you killed. The G wagon is a status vehicle, nothing more. Just for those who want to look rugged, but don't really get their hands dirty or sweat, or muddy without an entourage catering to them with a warm towel.

I don’t want to come off like an asshole but I don’t think you understand the rich person car market. These are people buying 2nd or 3rd cars not people maxing out their budget on a lease to feel fancy. Who do you think buys Ford GTs or all those ridiculous wranglers? Yeah a normal Ford dealer probably sucks but there are places like Galpin that will sell you a Bronco with mods and an Aston Martin who cater to this clientele.

 

[BroncoHooves]

I don't suppose it makes sense that your First Edition #Res number would be bigger than mine since I went for the Badlands. I think the reservation numbers are sequential - in that they increase based simply on when the order was technically received\processed. And that could have been disrupted by the many problems they had at that early time. Or, I simply got my Badlands order in earlier. I'm seeing claims in the other spreadsheet thread that people who ordered multiple of the same trim got one #Res number. I'm curious if people who ordered 2 different trims? Did they get 1 or 2 reservation numbers?

Reservation numbers are not sequential.

 

[LarryZiegler]

(disclaimer: i have failed several math classes)
first off, here are the numbers i will be using:

-bronco reservation numbers started at 10114000

-i, who was late to the party by a few days, have reservation number 10272837 (i hope there is nothing malicious that can be done with that lol)

-quick google search says Ford Michigan Assembly Plant made 350,000 cars in 2017 (i'm too lazy to find out what cars they were making so im just gunna assume they were slapin together fiestas and use the more conservative number of 250,000)

-Ford Michigan Assembly Plant will be making rangers and broncos: hopefully at a 50:50 split

-production (should) start (late?) december (so lets just say january)

-reserved broncos will be made first and in order of the reservation


math part:

250,000 cars and 50% broncos thats 125,000 broncos per year

125,000/365 thats bout 342 broncos a day (wow, those mass producers mass produce at quite a pace)

so

if you have a reservation (like me(not to brag this is relevant)), take your number and do this:

10272837 (my number)-10114000 and my bronco will be the 158,837th bronco made (dear lord)

158,837/342 (broncos a day) and thats bout 464 days untill my bronco is made.

so using math, i should see my bronco sometime around march of 2022.

now, if you don't have a reservation yet, lets just say it is going to be a while before broncos start showing up on dealer lots. here is a random youtube comment from a random ford dealer:

this has been math.

There is an error of the starting point as my order starts with 10114.....and I couldn’t get in to place my reservation until 3 hours after it began due to the website going down.

 

[Richtor]

Guys, reservations are only likely to be fewer than 8000 units at this point. Realistically maybe 6000 between US and Canada.

Bronco is hardly affordable as most units in the launch will be around $45K for passionate buyers. Mine will top $50K+. Not a ton of Ford buyers for this at that price point for a purpose built vehicle.

if they top 25K preorders by Sept 1 Ford will win the luxury car race. These will not be fleet vehicles and we are in a recession with high unemployment to boot.

they can crank out 25K with some ease. Day one guys will take delivery in March 2021.

rest easy gents, the future is coming.

My small town dealer with about 10k population has 20+ reservations another dealer in the Midwest has over 50 already. Less than a week after reveal. Ford will build and sell all 80k plus before March.
A 2 door JL Rubicon can be optioned at over $55k and Jeep sold over 220k units in 2019!

I can assure you that your friend was not cross shopping a $127K starting price G Wagon with a damn Ford anything man, so don't put that story out there.

My past 7 or 8 cars have been BMWs since 2004, none even close to costing $100K. The people who buy these overpriced vehicles such as a G Wagon or BMWs, etc won't be caught dead in a Ford dealership. Regular car dealerships and their service centers are horrible places and far too down market, never mind the car. Luxury dealerships are nice, clean, pampering, free swag, salesmen laughing at your bad jokes, make you feel like you're in charge and know everything, complement you on the way you look and the size of your package, all that type of crap. I'm being a bit funny here, but you get the idea.

Unless talking sports cars or top performance trims, most people buy luxury cars for the badge and status. One thing I hate about BMW (still drive one and wife) are the douche bags who have them and stink up the forums and car clubs. These folks want status and to look cool. Nothing about a Ford to brag about at all; they are purpose built vehicles or status for a different class level. However, I'm not sure I'll buy another Bimmer until I get really old, or want to feel pampered again with the car experience; doubt it!

A G wagon is well known to be not too good off road; its an overlander and not a very good one. Most buy a Land Cruiser or other Toyota that's not even sold here for that purpose globally. Driving a Benz through remote areas of Africa or South America can get you killed. The G wagon is a status vehicle, nothing more. Just for those who want to look rugged, but don't really get their hands dirty or sweat, or muddy without an entourage catering to them with a warm towel.

This statement is not true at all. People cross shop for all reasons. I was just cross shopping the JL Rubicon 2dr, Tremor Crewcab, and Charger Scatpack Widebody. I’ve seen others cross shop Porsche Turbo S and the Raptor. I know many multi millionaires with dedicated off road vehicles.
Hell Jason Oppenheim just purchased a refurbished Bronco. It’s amazing!!

 

[level3looper]

Reservation numbers are not sequential.

Based on the spreadsheet in that other thread, I'm clearly seeing an upward trend on the reservation numbers in relation to the reservation date.

 

[MadMan4BamaNATL]

My small town dealer with about 10k population has 20+ reservations another dealer in the Midwest has over 50 already. Less than a week after reveal. Ford will build and sell all 80k plus before March.
A 2 door JL Rubicon can be optioned at over $55k and Jeep sold over 220k units in 2019!

This statement is not true at all. People cross shop for all reasons. I was just cross shopping the JL Rubicon 2dr, Tremor Crewcab, and Charger Scatpack Widebody. I’ve seen others cross shop Porsche Turbo S and the Raptor. I know many multi millionaires with dedicated off road vehicles.
Hell Jason Oppenheim just purchased a refurbished Bronco. It’s amazing!!

Dude, this is a resto mod! Not even close to the same thing. Resto mod likely costing twice the price of the new Bronco when loaded.

No one is cross shopping a $120K plus Benz with this Ford!

I know you guys want to feel like you’re getting some super car, but you’re not. Is it going to be popular and cool, sure it is, but there isn’t anything else going on right now, so this is something to talk about. In the end, there won’t be 80K sold by pre order. it’s not a Tesla Model 3 either.

 

[cybersal]

I'd like to see the spreadsheet sorted by order number, trim, or order time. Just by looking at the trim and 2 vs 4-door, I didn't notice a pattern.

 

[BroncoHooves]

Based on the spreadsheet in that other thread, I'm clearly seeing an upward trend on the reservation numbers in relation to the reservation date.

Reservation numbers aren't sequential. I was one of the first ones in the gate and by the math in the first post my Bronco would be the 5069th one built.

We don't know if there's a way to decode the actual sequence number.

 

[LemonShark]

Real or not, I like your math, because it gets me a Bronco in 30.4 days!

 

[Richtor]

Dude, this is a resto mod! Not even close to the same thing. Resto mod likely costing twice the price of the new Bronco when loaded.

No one is cross shopping a $120K plus Benz with this Ford!

I know you guys want to feel like you’re getting some super car, but you’re not. Is it going to be popular and cool, sure it is, but there isn’t anything else going on right now, so this is something to talk about. In the end, there won’t be 80K sold by pre order. it’s not a Tesla Model 3 either.

I know multiple celebrities/athletes and other multi millionaires on the waiting list as we speak. The only question for them is do I get the G63 or the Bronco or both? I know many people who have both ferrari/lamborghini and a JL Rubicon. Hell there was a guy with 991 GT3 purchasing a Fiesta ST because its so fun to drive! Im going to buy one and mod the S#$% out of it, was his exact quote!

Get off your high horse, if your afraid to be seen in a Ford that is your problem!

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