6/30 blend dates

[LeeMac]

It looks like that was sent to dealers for the roof replacements that they will be performing on the Broncos that have been delivered. So I’m betting that no MIC tops with a blend date after July 21st got shipped. I try to be a glass half full kinda guy but I’m just a realist at heart.

Edit: Looks like I replied to the wrong post. Pretend it was the one about July 21st.

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[BroncoDymond88]

It looks like that was sent to dealers for the roof replacements that they will be performing on the Broncos that have been delivered. So I’m betting that no MIC tops with a blend date after July 21st got shipped. I try to be a glass half full kinda guy but I’m just a realist at heart.

Edit: Looks like I replied to the wrong post. Pretend it was the one about July 21st.

I thought the same thing, but people on this forum are posting about receiving MIC builds this week.

 

[mpeugeot]

Let's be real, at a minimum, Ford is going to need to produce 12,000+ V2 MIC tops and they have publicly stated that they had not started production of those tops yet. If that is the case, then we are really screwed.

Let's imagine that Ford starts production of these tops (at full speed) starting on 1 September 2021.

Hardtops required in October - 3000 for already produced and delivered Broncos
Hardtops required in November - 3000 for Dirt Mountain Storage Complex Broncos
Hardtops required in October and November - 6000 for FE and scheduled MIC Broncos

That means under the most ideal of circumstances that the following must occur to meet the projected goals to replace all the tops and provide new tops to meet already scheduled and committed orders.

26 days production in September - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in October - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

Do you really think that is realistic?

What happens if tops don't start getting delivered to Ford daily until 15 September??? What will that do to the numbers???

13 days production in September - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in October - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

What happens if tops don't start getting delivered to Ford daily until 1 October??? What will that do to the numbers???

26 days production in October - 231 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 231 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

There is no way that will ever happen! Not even at 154 tops per day and certainly not at 231 tops per day... plus shipping lag... LMFAO. They are high, unless these tops are already rolling off a production line at 200 tops per day... Many of us will not see a Bronco until next year.

 

[Blaven]

Let's be real, at a minimum, Ford is going to need to produce 12,000+ V2 MIC tops and they have publicly stated that they had not started production of those tops yet. If that is the case, then we are really screwed.

Let's imagine that Ford starts production of these tops (at full speed) starting on 1 September 2021.

Hardtops required in October - 3000 for already produced and delivered Broncos
Hardtops required in November - 3000 for Dirt Mountain Storage Complex Broncos
Hardtops required in October and November - 6000 for FE and scheduled MIC Broncos

That means under the most ideal of circumstances that the following must occur to meet the projected goals to replace all the tops and provide new tops to meet already scheduled and committed orders.

26 days production in September - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in October - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

Do you really think that is realistic?

What happens if tops don't start getting delivered to Ford daily until 15 September??? What will that do to the numbers???

13 days production in September - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in October - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

What happens if tops don't start getting delivered to Ford daily until 1 October??? What will that do to the numbers???

26 days production in October - 231 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 231 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

There is no way that will ever happen! Not even at 154 tops per day and certainly not at 231 tops per day... plus shipping lag... LMFAO. They are high, unless these tops are already rolling off a production line at 200 tops per day... Many of us will not see a Bronco until next year.

I'm not expecting mine till at least December.

 

[myrealname123]

I'm not expecting mine till at least December.

Same. May be optimistic with Holiday shutdowns and ~3 weeks on a rail to CA.

 

[navi]

Let's be real, at a minimum, Ford is going to need to produce 12,000+ V2 MIC tops and they have publicly stated that they had not started production of those tops yet. If that is the case, then we are really screwed.

Let's imagine that Ford starts production of these tops (at full speed) starting on 1 September 2021.

Hardtops required in October - 3000 for already produced and delivered Broncos
Hardtops required in November - 3000 for Dirt Mountain Storage Complex Broncos
Hardtops required in October and November - 6000 for FE and scheduled MIC Broncos

That means under the most ideal of circumstances that the following must occur to meet the projected goals to replace all the tops and provide new tops to meet already scheduled and committed orders.

26 days production in September - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in October - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 154 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

Do you really think that is realistic?

What happens if tops don't start getting delivered to Ford daily until 15 September??? What will that do to the numbers???

13 days production in September - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in October - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 184 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

What happens if tops don't start getting delivered to Ford daily until 1 October??? What will that do to the numbers???

26 days production in October - 231 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered
26 days production in November - 231 tops per day - 100% perfect, 0% waste, delivered

There is no way that will ever happen! Not even at 154 tops per day and certainly not at 231 tops per day... plus shipping lag... LMFAO. They are high, unless these tops are already rolling off a production line at 200 tops per day... Many of us will not see a Bronco until next year.

There's only a few hundred produced and delivered Broncos with MIC, not 3000, according to premierdrum.
Does that change the computations at all?

 

[myrealname123]

There's only a few hundred produced and delivered Broncos with MIC, not 3000, according to premierdrum.
Does that change the computations at all?

I think the already shipped/delivered plus our dirt mountain lot together probably are around 3000.

 

[LeeMac]

I thought the same thing, but people on this forum are posting about receiving MIC builds this week.

I know a couple of people personally but they were built before 7/21. The shipping has been soooooo slow. The ones I know were by rail and had issues the whole way. There may have been some after that date, I don’t know.

 

[mpeugeot]

There's only a few hundred produced and delivered Broncos with MIC, not 3000, according to premierdrum.
Does that change the computations at all?

It would if that were actually true, it's closer to between one and two thousand I believe, likely to be on the low side of that. Even back in the first week of June (where Bronco Production was about 100 units per day) nearly 50% were hard tops. That's 250 just in the first week of June. Ross also stated that he expected MY21 to be around 40k units initially and the hardtops were being produced at greater rates than the soft-tops at many points along the way.

Also, with regard to the Dirt Mountain Storage Complex (DMSC), the 8/2/2021 build week, by itself, put a projected nearly 1600 hardtops into DMSC (1594 to be exact). Additionally, the week of 6/14 alone was another projected 770 hardtop builds - just those 2 weeks alone account for 2364 hardtop Bronco. July's overall production was nearly 6000 units, with probably near 1/2 hard tops, so it would be safe to assume that even if only 1/3 were hardtops, that would account to another 2000 units for a total of 4364 hardtops. Let's assume that the 8/9/2021 build week was also heavily populated with hardtop builds (and it likely was). Add another 1600 hardtops to the running total (6364 hardtops). I forgot to add in the 250 hardtops from the 1st week of June (6614 hardtops).

Does that help put the numbers in perspective??? So weeks I have some pretty good numbers for, but others escaped my seeing them. I really doubt that there are less than 1,000 hardtops in the wild and if there are, then there are over 5,000 Broncos at DMSC.

 

[Tangent27]

Day 50: Have not checked the tracker or my window sticker in about two weeks. Feels good. Set my sidesteps and hood struts I ordered on the ground and sat in the invisible bronco. Many sounds of vrooming. Cried.

 

[MacDonald_Photo]

Let's assume that the 8/9/2021 build week was also heavily populated with hardtop builds (and it likely was). Add another 1600 hardtops to the running total (6364 hardtops). I forgot to add in the 250 hardtops from the 1st week of June (6614 hardtops).

Why would you make that assumption?
This was well after people were informed that they should switch to a soft-top to expedite their build and who knows how many of those fall into that camp.

Too much speculation here if you ask me.
And if you don't ask me?
Still, too much speculation backed up by what? Speculation.

 

[drive21bronco]

It looks like that was sent to dealers for the roof replacements that they will be performing on the Broncos that have been delivered. So I’m betting that no MIC tops with a blend date after July 21st got shipped. I try to be a glass half full kinda guy but I’m just a realist at heart.

Edit: Looks like I replied to the wrong post. Pretend it was the one about July 21st.

I’m a July 23rd build with a MIC top and stuck at dirt mountain with the rest of y’all. In the 7/19 build week thread only a few MIC top builds escaped MAP and those that did were pre 7/21 builds. From what I’ve read all builds after 7/21 were transferred to the dirt lot regardless of how good the top looked.

 

[mpeugeot]

Why would you make that assumption?
This was well after people were informed that they should switch to a soft-top to expedite their build and who knows how many of those fall into that camp.

Too much speculation here if you ask me.
And if you don't ask me?
Still, too much speculation backed up by what? Speculation.

LOL, you're funny! It is speculation based on the data sourced from a random sample of VIN numbers. This data, while not perfect, can be used for estimating populations. Maybe you've haven't heard of statistics before.

So my data was based on the people with hardtops that were bounced from July 26th and a number of random window stickers I pulled using palsapp to source vin numbers. This VIN numbers and order numbers were then used to download the windowstickers to examine the data available on the stickers.

But hey, I am just some moron, ignore me if you don't like what I have to say.

 

[MacDonald_Photo]

This data, while not perfect, can be used for estimating populations. Maybe you've haven't heard of statistics before.



But hey, I am just some moron, ignore me if you don't like what I have to say.

Wow...You OK?
Kinda sensitive huh?

I guess if you are a statistician by trade (or uber geeky which is cool in my book) and know what sample size you need to generate a valid estimation then I suppose your numbers are solid and we'll be looking forward to celebrating your intelligence and snappy rebukes next year when we start taking delivery of our Broncos!

 

[mpeugeot]

Wow...You OK?
Kinda sensitive huh?

I guess if you are a statistician by trade (or uber geeky which is cool in my book) and know what sample size you need to generate a valid estimation then I suppose your numbers are solid and we'll be looking forward to celebrating your intelligence and snappy rebukes next year when we start taking delivery of our Broncos!

I'm fine. Not sensitive at all actually.

Nope, it's probably not a big enough sample, definitely underpowered... I never claimed this to be a statistical analysis and honestly I didn't feel like doing a full blown statistical analysis. Could I do it, yes, but I am also not a statistician, just in a field that requires a lot of statistics training.

Sure, I am not happy about the fiasco with the tops, but hey I don't think anyone wanted that outcome. Eventually the issue with the tops work itself out, but I suspect that it will be a longer time than is currently projected.

I would love to be proven wrong, but Ford has not exactly had a great track record so far. I am perfectly fine with eating some crow if I am wrong, because that just means that I will be driving my Bronco sooner.

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