I've been tracking these numbers over time:
I constructed this to get an approximation of the number of ponies on Dirt Mountain and to track production, sales and inventory.
Some points:
* Gross stocks (vehicles on dealer lots? - the numbers are not shown here) have risen from 0 in June to 6,200 in October.
* From June through August, production was much higher than sales and you can see that Estimated Dirt Mountain grew quickly (note I have deducted inventory from production to get to Estimated Dirt Mountain).
* Estimated Dirt Mountain has been dropping at a healthy rate beginning in August.
* Beginning in September, Sales and Production have been about the same number each month (indicating that dirt Mountain isn't growing?).
* If we assume a run-rate of about 8,000 per month for the remainder of the 2021 model year, MY21 production will be about 40,500 for MY21, maybe 48,500 for the calendar year.
* If we assume the same 8,000 per month for MY22, MY22 production will be about 96,000.
* If 120,000 of the MY21 reservations were converted to orders (ignoring people dropping off, code 99's, etc) and given 32,000 produced to date (ignoring that some of these are post-March 19 orders), given 6,200 in dealer stocks, there are about 85,000 MY21 reservations to build. In a perfect world at 8,000 a month, it will take 11 months to clear these.
* Hopefully the monthly build rate grows.
I constructed this to get an approximation of the number of ponies on Dirt Mountain and to track production, sales and inventory.
Some points:
* Gross stocks (vehicles on dealer lots? - the numbers are not shown here) have risen from 0 in June to 6,200 in October.
* From June through August, production was much higher than sales and you can see that Estimated Dirt Mountain grew quickly (note I have deducted inventory from production to get to Estimated Dirt Mountain).
* Estimated Dirt Mountain has been dropping at a healthy rate beginning in August.
* Beginning in September, Sales and Production have been about the same number each month (indicating that dirt Mountain isn't growing?).
* If we assume a run-rate of about 8,000 per month for the remainder of the 2021 model year, MY21 production will be about 40,500 for MY21, maybe 48,500 for the calendar year.
* If we assume the same 8,000 per month for MY22, MY22 production will be about 96,000.
* If 120,000 of the MY21 reservations were converted to orders (ignoring people dropping off, code 99's, etc) and given 32,000 produced to date (ignoring that some of these are post-March 19 orders), given 6,200 in dealer stocks, there are about 85,000 MY21 reservations to build. In a perfect world at 8,000 a month, it will take 11 months to clear these.
* Hopefully the monthly build rate grows.
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