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ffdemoss

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. . I wish we had a way to track mileage against build dates.
- your wish is my command . . lol
Edit Added:
- hadn't looked at this before, but when you posted I thought there's an interesting question

Ford Bronco 2.7L blown engine failure list . . 68 so far [Updated: December 13, 2022] bivariate - mileage vs ebd - 2022.Jan.23
 
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ffdemoss

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That October Engine Build had to be an anomaly.
 

NotApplicable

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That October Engine Build had to be an anomaly.
Or just one of the first ones of the newer batches to get some mileage on it…
 

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ran it again
Joseph....English please :)

is the declining failure rate indicative of some product/process improvement? Otherwise, I'd expect the yellow line to be flat?

thanks
 

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SPITmadFIRE

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Keep in mind, we have no idea how many 2.7L engines Lima produced on any given day. They could be producing far fewer engines today than they did on these failure days, either because of failure mitigations or because of supply constraints. So far, our assumptions are basing everything off a constant rate of engine production but I’m willing to bet the majority of 2.7L broncos built so far have engines from a few different hot spots of production weeks
 
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Have you excluded this datum (#31) from your analysis because the mileage is only approximate?
31) @matthiggins - 1st post - Jan 16, ~4900 mi
Yes, the X-Y plot includes only the 19 engines which we have both mileage and engine build-date - see table in OP
- we still don't have ebd for lines #31, #30, #27 - and others earlier
EDIT-3 Added:
- however, the Histogram on right border includes all 25 of the mileage data we have - not just the 19 w edb's
- and similarly, the Histogram on top border includes all 20 of the edb's we have - not just the 19 w mileage data

EDIT-2 Added:
- in Confidential listing in OP, I removed the exact mileage & fail-date to camouflage
- if you'd like the actual data, send DM


EDIT Added:
is the declining failure rate indicative of some product/process improvement? Otherwise, I'd expect the yellow line to be flat?
- wouldn't call it declining failure rate - it seems the Mileage at Failure is generally higher for the earlier ebd's
- but as I mentioned in EDIT, you would prob expect earlier engine build-dates to have more miles on them by now than later ebd's
- the linear fit here may just be common sense, because the later ebd's just don't have as many miles yet, in general
- the linear fit here may just be a 'truism'

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

- ran it again with 'Robust Fit' added, which in this case turns out linear fit
- the software checks polynomials, up to & including 6-degree
- this linear fit lists Chi Square and P Value, for those inclined
- I think others have mentioned these values in earlier posts
EDIT Added:
- not sure what this is telling us, since you would prob expect the earlier engine build-dates to have more miles on them by now than the later ebd's
- the linear fit here may just be common sense ?

Ford Bronco 2.7L blown engine failure list . . 68 so far [Updated: December 13, 2022] bivariate - mileage vs ebd - 2022.Jan.23.b
 
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SPITmadFIRE

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Yes, this only includes the 19 engines which we have both mileage and engine build-date - see table in OP
yeah, it’s unfortunate we only have about 2/3 of these build dates as well. For all we know the remaining third could all fill the gaps
 

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- ran it again with 'Robust Fit' added, which in this case turns out to be linear fit
- the software checks polynomial fit, up to & including 6-degree
- this linear fit lists Chi Square and P Value, for those inclined
- I think others have mentioned these values in earlier posts
EDIT Added:
- not sure what this is telling us, since you would prob expect the earlier engine build-dates to have more miles on them by now than the later ebd's
- the linear fit here may just be common sense ?

Ford Bronco 2.7L blown engine failure list . . 68 so far [Updated: December 13, 2022] bivariate - mileage vs ebd - 2022.Jan.23.b

Well, obviously (and as I said very early on) I am right in the middle of that circle. At 4,000 miles, I was at 100 hours of engine run time. I am approaching 6,000 miles (and willing to bet that I am approaching 150 hours - I will edit if I am off by more than 10 hours). I obviously have reason to be concerned.

I am running 87 octane as of today and will be running normal and eco modes to see if I can become a statistic. Mind you, I don't want to become a statistic, but I am in a position where I can tolerate the catastrophic failure of the engine with minimal hassle. So might as well roll the dice before I relocate the engine/transmission heat exchanger. I want 1500 more miles without failure under a variety of conditions before I make the modification - as I don't want Ford to come up with a bullshit reason for denying my warranty.
 

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Keep in mind, we have no idea how many 2.7L engines Lima produced on any given day. They could be producing far fewer engines today than they did on these failure days, either because of failure mitigations or because of supply constraints. So far, our assumptions are basing everything off a constant rate of engine production but I’m willing to bet the majority of 2.7L broncos built so far have engines from a few different hot spots of production weeks
As a matter of fact, during June/July they were largely shutdown due to the fact that Ford idled the plant several times during this period. There appear to be at least 3 distinct lines (120xxx,130xxx,131xxx), but motors on all lines have failed. All of which were 6007-AA motors (iirc). So it's not limited to one line of serials or the other.
 
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What buyers are choosing isn't the question. What Ford is actually delivering is.

The last time we got commodity numbers from within Ford, 72% of orders were 2.7L, and 60% of estimated production was 2.3L. This is what is meant by 2.7L being a constraint.

I'd love to have more updated real numbers, but I haven't gotten the sense that there's been a massive shift in production toward the 2.7L based on the builds I am seeing being delivered on here.
Not that this means squat, but over the last 45 days, my local dealer brought in five 2.7L and two 2.3L. Don't know how it is across the nation, this is just local to me.
 
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Not that this means squat, but over the last 45 days, my local dealer has brought in five 2.7L and two 2.3L. Don't know how it is across the nation, this is just local to me.
Well that is 70% 2.7's, close to the estimated split with 2.3's in total sales of 65% (2.7) vs 35% (2.3).
 
 


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