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3/27/21 Update - Hardtop Headliner, Allocation, & Price Protection

Bronc-O

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The point though is the numbers also show that there is nothing unique about Granger. They are getting the same proportional allocation as other dealers.

If they attracted a smaller numbers of orders, they would have proportionally smaller allocation... and proportionally the same number waiting for final delivery once Ford gets their manufacturing ramped all the way up in MY22.

People are acting like this proves their claims Granger was a bad move, when in reality, it proves the opposite.
Percentage wise yes, but a dealer with 50 orders would only have a small amount of customers moved forward instead of hundreds.
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Razorbak86

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Some people warned months ago that this was likely to happen. That didn't go over very well with the believers. Now, you know the rest of the story.
Are you talking about this guy?

If your reservation is before Sept 18th, you should make the 21 cut.
... or this guy?

A new reservation will guarantee you will end up with a 22 sometime in 2022.
The first guy clearly didn’t know what the hell he was talking about, but the second guy was pretty smart. ;)
 

Cousin Eddie

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He would only have to go through the appeals process if he were in danger of running over the policy limit. There will always be some last-minute cancellations that he cannot predict, but the policy allows for that.
Agree. And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Granger or others who offered fantastic deals did anything wrong. I'm just spinning thoughts in my head while I "patiently" wait for more info. ;)
 

ZackDanger

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Percentage wise yes, but a dealer with 50 orders would only have a small amount of customers moved forward instead of hundreds.
So what?

The way this all works is that assuming the spread of reservation timestamps nationally are similar to the spread at a particular dealer, even though allocations are dealer specific, because allocation scales with orders an individual’s ranking is going to be more or less the same at whatever dealer they go to.

We’re talking about pre Sept 19 reservation holders, so there’s nothing happening here to skew Granger to a weird dispersion. What will be weird is the probably disproportionately higher October reservations they have, but really that’s not dissimilar than everything Ford is doing right now to push people to a MY22 when production and parts are more able to meet demand.

So someone at granger who’s in a huge pack of later deliveries, if they were transported to that smaller dealer you imagine, they would find them selves in a tiny pack of later deliveries. (Obviously specific cases will vary simply because of how the allocation formula works and variables in timestamps).

All the speculation about granger being a bad bet was predicated on them, for whatever reason, receiving a lower allocation percentage than the average dealer. We see now that didn’t play out.

The results are back. It’s over. We’re done.

Granger reservation holders saved a significant amount of money and weren’t otherwise penalized by the system for it.

Now, if you’d like to start surmising what will happen around MY22 allocations, and make an argument for why Granger would *then* for some reason be penalized by Ford for selling a whole bunch of Broncos, that’s an argument still unsettled... but I think by my tone you can probably guess where I land on the “does Ford want to do everything in its power to sell as many Broncos as possible to verified buyers?” question.
 
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ilbastarge

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So what?

The way this all works is that assuming the spread of reservation timestamps nationally are similar to the spread at a particular dealer, even though allocations are dealer specific, because allocation scales with orders an individual’s ranking is going to be more or less the same at whatever dealer they go to.

We’re talking about pre Sept 19 reservation holders, so there’s nothing happening here to skew Granger to a weird dispersion. What will be weird is the probably disproportionately higher October reservations they have, but really that’s not dissimilar than everything Ford is doing right now to push people to a MY22 when production and parts are more able to meet demand.

So someone at granger who’s in a huge pack of later deliveries, if they were transported to that smaller dealer you imagine, they would find them selves in a tiny pack of later deliveries. (Obviously specific cases will vary simply because of how the allocation formula works and variables in timestamps).

All the speculation about granger being a bad bet was predicated on them, for whatever reason, receiving a lower allocation percentage than the average dealer. We see now that didn’t play out.

The results are back. It’s over. We’re done.

Granger reservation holders saved a significant amount of money and weren’t otherwise penalized by the system for it.

Now, if you’d like to start surmising what will happen around MY22 allocations, and make an argument for why Granger would *then* for some reason be penalized by Ford for selling a whole bunch of Broncos, that’s an argument still unsettled... but I think by my tone you can probably guess where I land on the “does Ford want to do everything in its power to sell as many Broncos as possible to verified buyers?” question.
There might be another way to do the allocation too. The first year is calculated as described but there could also be an aspect going forward that it is a "sell 1, get 1" (for as direct as that can possibly be, which it can't be perfectly 1:1 if total production capacity could be exceeded).

Not saying it is definitely going to happen but something like it COULD happen.
 

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ZackDanger

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There might be another way to do the allocation too. The first year is calculated as described but there could also be an aspect going forward that it is a "sell 1, get 1" (for as direct as that can possibly be, which it can't be perfectly 1:1 if total production capacity could be exceeded).

Not saying it is definitely going to happen but something like it COULD happen.
Yeah. The thing to remember is Ford wants to sell Broncos. If they are being 100% selfish, that’s their goal.

Sure, they will want to produce, and dealer’s will want, Broncos for stock that can carry ADM and create buzz, and account for all the people who didn’t know about the reservation system...

...but Ford will have a non-insignificant Bronco production capacity once up to full production in MY22, and you’d have to be insane to think they’d see a stack of committed buyers waiting for theirs and for Ford to just not build and ship it.

The only question for MY22 is production capacity. If they can’t meet all the demand again, hold onto your butts for another allocation memo... but like we’ve already seen, and Zach has mentioned, there should be plenty of capacity to cover the balance of orders not filled in MY21.
 

ilbastarge

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Yeah. The thing to remember is Ford wants to sell Broncos. If they are being 100% selfish, that’s their goal.

Sure, they will want to produce, and dealer’s will want, Broncos for stock that can carry ADM and create buzz, and account for all the people who didn’t know about the reservation system...

...but Ford will have a non-insignificant Bronco production capacity once up to full production in MY22, and you’d have to be insane to think they’d see a stack of committed buyers waiting for theirs and for Ford to just not build and ship it.

The only question for MY22 is production capacity. If they can’t meet all the demand again, hold onto your butts for another allocation memo... but like we’ve already seen, and Zach has mentioned, there should be plenty of capacity to cover the balance of orders not filled in MY21.
I agree. Maybe I read something different than what you are describing. Just trying to describe a possible increase to allocation going forward (using the MY21 number as a base and then having the 1:1 afterwards).


No offense was meant.
 

ZackDanger

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I agree. Maybe I read something different than what you are describing. Just trying to describe a possible increase to allocation going forward (using the MY21 number as a base and then having the 1:1 afterwards).


No offense was meant.
Oh! Sorry!!

I’m actually in full agreement with you!

I’m just so jazzed up trying to explain how percentages work to other people I guess I came off as antagonistic.

My sincerest apologies.
 

Razorbak86

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Yup, I'm BOTH of those guys. Tell me I'm wrong. :unsure: You can defend that all you want, but close to 2 years minimum is spot on, based on their own projections.
The second guy was pretty smart (y), but the first guy was way off 😂.

Show me dealers with 9/18 reservation timestamps within 21MY allocations. Many dealers can only cover first week reservations. Some can’t even cover Day 3 reservations.

Generally, people don’t like to hear someone else say, “Told ya!” So when someone says, “You were warned,” I like to check to see what the warnings actually were, in case someone is cherry-picking their data.
 
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BroncoJay

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All I know is I’d like to meet @ZackDanger and @Zach@Granger for a beer in Iowa so I’m trying to time my delivery for that😃
You make it to our great state and I will for sure buy the 1st beer, or whiskey or cigar or all of the above...😎
 

Brocked

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Should rename this the Kool-Aid thread. Some are still enjoying the drink and some have looked down to realize the wall has been busted by a big fat red dude.
But big props to Granger for their transparency. Honesty is everything when you have that many customers to please.
 

Bronc-O

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The second guy was pretty smart, but the first guy was way off.

Show me dealers with 9/18 reservation timestamps within 21MY allocations. Many dealers can only cover first week reservations. Some can’t even cover Day 3 reservations.
5 months ago when I made that statement was like we were in a different world. It would be pretty amusing to go through some of those old threads and see some of the wild speculation.
 

Razorbak86

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Should rename this the Kool-Aid thread. Some are still enjoying the drink and some have looked down to realize the wall has been busted by a big fat red dude.
But big props to Granger for their transparency. Honesty is everything when you have that many customers to please.
Who’s still drinking the Kool-Aid, Brock?
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