7/14 reservation and have been told I'm 2022. Is Ford Production forecasts this poor for '21?

[firsttimefordbuyer]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

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[Vigor]

I know it sucks but this may make it more clear for you.

Let's say hypothetically 500k people reserved within the first 2 days. Realistically you can't expect Ford, with a max production run of a fraction of that, to be able to produce a Bronco for everyone just because they reserved in the first 2 days.

I'm using hyperbole to make a point. But reality is it doesn't matter if you were day 2 or not. A LOT of people reserved their Broncos within those first few days!

 

[xylophone solo]

Yes.

 

[Toccoa]

 

[Used2jeep]

I know it sucks but this may make it more clear for you.

Let's say hypothetically 500k people reserved within the first 2 days. Realistically you can't expect Ford, with a max production run of a fraction of that, to be able to produce a Bronco for everyone just because they reserved in the first 2 days.

I'm using hyperbole to make a point. But reality is it doesn't matter if you were day 2 or not. A LOT of people reserved their Broncos within those first few days!

If you're using hyperbole is there a lightbole? Or is it hyper that jumps you to light? What if you want to go slower than hyperbole?

 

[Used2jeep]

JAGSarge!

 

[pan-y-cerveza]

Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand.

Some dealers have 1000+ orders to deal with. Over two months that's still inputting 16/day. Punching it into the computer may be quick but interfacing with the customer will chew up time.

Regardless... Ford is still using this time to get the factory online and get commodities lined up.

 

[pan-y-cerveza]

If you're using hyperbole is there a lightbole? Or is it hyper that jumps you to light? What if you want to go slower than hyperbole?

Hypobole

 

[Jarrett]

Guessing the issue is more that your dealer has too many early timing reservations before you and not enough ‘21 allocations to cover. If you are willing to change dealers, I’m pretty sure your 7/14 reservation would be early enough to get a ‘21 allocation somewhere across the US because you should be within the first 60,000 reservations — which I believe is the number Ford plans to build in ‘21.

 

[Vigor]

If you're using hyperbole is there a lightbole? Or is it hyper that jumps you to light? What if you want to go slower than hyperbole?

If you want to go slower, believe they call that blackholepole. It sucks in all light so you go nowhere

 

[gentlemanbronco]

Quite the thesis typed up there... I mean, The broncos are gonna be late y'all! There's no getting around it. At this point most MY21 are going to be received probably right before MY22 are out and about. Plus the only benefit to scoring a MY21 is being able to say "I'm 1st."

 

[khatch]

I have a 7:00 AM 7/14 reservation and feel the same frustration that I'm possibly not getting a MY2021. I prefer the 2021, not just to have something sooner but because it's the first year of the new generation. It makes it feel a little more special but it's not a deal breaker for me if I get a 2022.

That said, I think what led to this situation were the delays that are behind us already. If we had ordered earlier, if Ford had started production earlier, etc. there would be more built in 2021. I hate to mention it but further delays at Ford could result in fewer 2021 models than we expect right now. That would probably make the 2021 owners feel even better but there would be fewer of them.

My understanding is that this is really all about timing of cars being built. Anything that knocks your bronco into or past December will probably mean that you get a 2022 model.

 

[firsttimefordbuyer]

I know it sucks but this may make it more clear for you.

Let's say hypothetically 500k people reserved within the first 2 days. Realistically you can't expect Ford, with a max production run of a fraction of that, to be able to produce a Bronco for everyone just because they reserved in the first 2 days.

I'm using hyperbole to make a point. But the reality is it doesn't matter if you were day 2 or not. A LOT of people reserved their Broncos within those first few days!

It makes sense however in my work, I"m challenged with these types of things for product launches and demand forecasting, predictive analytics, and market analysis should have positioned Ford to have a strong hypothesis of demand and work on gap analysis of production constraints.

Regardless, at a macro level what you are saying is logical but the dealer allocation impact on customers is the concern. If the problem is really as big as your example, requiring a deposit would more than likely minimize or fix it. Also (probably uncontrollable) there are resellers out there with multiple reservations that could also be constrained to 1 order per buyer household.

 

[broncoskip]

Who told you that you are a 2022? It's possible your dealership got 500 orders in the first four hours and was only allocated 300.

i would ask to convert now anyhow. We don't know how the numbers are going to actually fall. You may even try hopping dealerships.

 

[Broncoak]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

I'm there with you. Reserved on 7/14, but because of time difference, got reported as 7/15. Just got an email today from dealer saying I'm #53, and their MY21 allocations run out at 45. I assume if I switch dealers, I will miss out as well. Oh well, maybe a good thing to take advantage of new colors, fixed bugs, etc.

If all they did is fix the interior color schemes, it would be worth it.

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