7/14 reservation and have been told I'm 2022. Is Ford Production forecasts this poor for '21?

[HoosierDaddy]

Not sure i'd buy the 2023 rumors so soon..... if they can run the previously stated 1/4million Broncos annually in 2022 , that's ALL the current reservations, plus, the expected 70k for 2021.
All the rest is hysterics....

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[AcesandEights]

Thing is, they can't run 250k Broncos annually. Saying they can makes people feel better, but it isn't true.

 

[WCP-82]

Yeah, considering that there have been several confirmations that ALL dealers got a 30% allocation, I'm not putting a lot of stock in your cobbled together numbers.

Okay. The 70 number is from my direct email from Stephens so that number isn't cobbled. If you believe Stephens only received 230 reservations then yes I am wrong. &0 allocations of

Yeah, considering that there have been several confirmations that ALL dealers got a 30% allocation, I'm not putting a lot of stock in your cobbled together numbers.

Well the 70 number came from an email I received from Stephens so that isn't cobbled.

You are partially right in my guessing the other numbers because I was off.

The Plan & Offer - Stephens Auto Center's Mid Atlantic Bronco Connection
We're around 300 or so reserves. /john

• StephensAutoCenter
• Post #873
• Dec 7, 2020
• Forum: Reservations, Ordering, Pricing, Production, Delivery

 

[ssolypop]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

Remember though that your timestamp is only one part of the equation. Timestamp is set and cannot change. Dealer allocation can still change and the big determining factor is what you choose to build. You can be a day one guy but if you pick all the items in highest demand and late availability then you will go to the back of the bus with late res folks. So don't sweat it. Get in your mind late 22 and anytime before that is a bonus. That's how I'm thinking of it.

 

[Compta38]

Nope. All dealers received a 30% initial allocation. If Stephens has 800 reservations and received 240 allocations, but had they not attracted more buyers and only had 350 reservations, then their allocation would have been 105.

They didn't get shafted.

Stephens got an allocation of 70 with over 350 reservations...

 

[JessD05]

As early a reservation you have, it seems like you would hold out a little hope based on the above that current allocations aren’t final.

Then again, if your dealer only chooses to convert exactly the number of initial allocations (as some have posted here their dealers are already stating), I am even thinking it maybe possible their allocations would drop at final due to low conversion.

 

[dcg2]

Stephens got an allocation of 70 with over 350 reservations...

Stephens got 70 slots (30%) allocated based on their reservations DATED PRIOR TO 9/19/20.

They didn't get screwed, its just that out of 300ish reservations they have 100ish reservations after that date.

 

[BlueBronco]

Stephens got 70 slots (30%) allocated based on their reservations DATED PRIOR TO 9/19/20.

They didn't get screwed, its just that out of 300ish reservations they have 100ish reservations after that date.

@Judge Rufus and @WCP-82 I came here to post the same thing. This is where the discrepancy is likely coming from.

 

[guerro]

I'm struggling to understand how such a large automotive corporation is forecasting such limited velocity for 2021 if I have a day 2 (had day 1 but didn't know we could change the model so canceled and made a new one on day 2 (stupid in hindsight on my part)) NOTE my specific build isn't being referenced either just my timestamp.


I understand Covid impact and resource constraints, however:

• how is it possible Ford will lack the capability to get past the first few days or first week of reservations?
• Why is there a lack of objective process for reservation time stamp holistically> Customer 1 with time stamp <n> let's say 7/14 can be slotted for 2022 based upon supply/demand (dealer allocation) in a specific market while customer 2 with a timestamp of 7/20 can be slotted for 2021 in the same market but a different dealer? Why do customers need to be deprioritized based on the constraints of a dealership (including the condition of their showroom). Not really a customer focussed approach mathematically.
• Why does it logistically take 2+ months to convert reservations to orders? This seems to be a critical factor to inform production demand and define conversion rate. Do dealers lack the skills/capacity to tighten dates up in order to inform the 2021 and 202 production demand. It is not really necessary to make customers wait until March, April, or even May to find out if they are going to get a 2021 delivery. This is a detractor for conversion.
• Ford has Lean engineers and other critical production experts in place so would be shocked if teams are sitting idle while we wait out this timeline. You can easily model out conversion risk to production delays and % of reservations or even orders that are delayed until 2022. One factor in these models is LTV (long term value of customers). A certain percentage of customers that cancel reservations and move to another brand based upon their personal needs, frustration, or Ford's inability to fulfill their 2021 order will impact LTV and risk of brand equity along with market share.
• Reserving or ordering a car shouldn't be this challenging. Ford is making customers work too hard to synthesize ambiguity (an example is this entire site)

The biggest concern for me a first-time Ford customer is bullet point 2 as it's concerning the first adapters for the Bronco that secured a reservation in the first week have a high risk of not taking delivery of 2021. If I were a brand manager or had a leadership role for a product launch, this would be filed as a failure if this is how reality shakes out.

I'm not a historical Ford fan but LOVE the bronco and excited about the opportunity to buy one but I lack patience as already waiting 1 full year for the best-case scenario. I'm not open to waiting another 6 months to a year for 2022. I'm sure others will wait as long as it takes... I'll try but I'm in an older vehicle and 'want' to upgrade this year (well actually last year as was originally looking at defender but came to my senses and shifted to the Bronco with the decision to wait a full year)

Hoping all this hand-waving noise is just noise and Ford works out the production constraints to achieve an acceptable fulfillment rate to res/orders.

You give Ford way too much credit. They operate in the stone age when it comes to manufacturing and sales. They are strapped for cash and it shows. They only really started this program, the Bronco, maybe, maaaayyyybbee, 1 to 1 1/2 years ago, not the 5 or so everyone is lead to believe. The majority of the content in the vehicle is sourced from 3rd parties and this makes planning a nightmare. They have a giant dealer network that gums everything up, as we have already seen.

edit: Oh, and I forgot to mention the unions.

 

[Tonka Bronka]

Negative. I’m at Stephens and I’m lucky enough to be included in their allocation. But they got shafted for doing a better job of attracting buyers.

Didn’t they get get like 70 allocations for 300 reservations? I’m there also. I was at a dealer today to drop off one of our Authority units for recall. The Bronco manager told me that they are getting 4 Broncos for 16 reservations. Same difference. My problem is that I have been anticipating this truck since the original concept and I blew it by waiting until 7/30 to reserve. My fault entirely but I actually still think I might get a 21 due to any number of reasons.

 

[Tonka Bronka]

I’m probably on an island here, but I don’t think the situation is as dire as many think.

A Ford exec told CNBC they had “almost” 190,000 reservations on 10/28 this would include people with 2 reservations as well. Assuming 50% of these become hard orders, you’re left with 95,000. And then assuming 30% of those orders defer to 2022 (mansquatchs, etc) you have about 70,000 orders for 2021 models which basically matches the planned production of 10,000 units per month for 2021. So in theory enough cars, although dealer allocations could complicate this significantly.

Of course no one is going to know the conversion rate until the order window closes in March. I’m personally not going to worry about it other than if I find out I can get a 2021 model say in November, maybe it makes more sense to convert my order to a 2022 model and wait a few months additional for a model with additional features and/or color options.

I’m also likely too much of an optimist, I live in DC and also think Inauguration Day is going to go off without a hitch tomorrow.

Exactly!

 

[AcesandEights]

Remember, all questions can be answered by listening/reading/understanding Ford communications. If Ford didn't communicate it, it isn't important.

 

[firsttimefordbuyer]

What I think is funny is, Ford has given great, complete and forthcoming communication. The problem is people don't pay attention and they come up with their own communication interpretation. Ford has stated exactly what they are going to state. That is the message. Your want of more or different is on you, not Ford. If someone started at the beginning and put the Ford communications in order they'd probably realize that not only are all of your Ford questions answered, but so are most of life's questions. You can practically stop asking questions altogether and just read the Ford communications and lead a happy, healthy and very fulfilling life. So, quit yer bitchin' already. Hope that helps indeedy.

There are countless examples of miscommunication from Ford dealers and ambiguous communication from <Ford>. This entire process is not good, there is an entire website dedicated to forums with questions and frustrations to help navigate the ambiguity and misinformation.

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