7/14 reservation and have been told I'm 2022. Is Ford Production forecasts this poor for '21?

[jjack50]

Remember also: the allocations given so far are preliminary. A dealer shouldn't be trying to tell you what your chances of getting a MY2021 Bronco are at this time. No one knows how many will go to each dealer. No one knows how many reservations will be converted to orders. No one know how many Broncos Ford can build before Dec, 2021.

If owning a new Bronco is that important to you (it is to me!) then just convert your reservation to an order and Ford will tell you in May when you can expect to get your vehicle.

I'll relax and wait (reluctantly) until I actually know something before I get excited either way.

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[NotAnonymous]

This is what I think of MY21 at the moment and its not necessarily on Ford.

As another October reservation holder, if I see it going the MY23, I'll just pivot to something else. Everything is so hard to predict, as these pages alone show!

 

[SPS4]

Is your current dealer one of the stinky ones?

Negative. I’m at Stephens and I’m lucky enough to be included in their allocation. But they got shafted for doing a better job of attracting buyers.

 

[KVK]

I have an august reservation and very close to being last at Stephens and hope im not 2023 due to allocation.

Damn I’m a late September reservation at Stephens. I must be last . If I’m a MY23 I’m out.

 

[JaxGtc]

What are the chances the 30% allocations get adjusted downward when the official allocation is run? Some dealers will do a better job converting to orders - 50% of the formula, so I have to assume some will go up and some will go down.
Don't get to attached to the starting number at the dealership determining if you are "in" or "out".

 

[Lab00Rat]

I just called my small town dealer.

They have 19 allocations, my number is 30 on the list of 58 reservations.
I have a 7/16 reservation, and the majority of the reservation holders were 13 & 14th.

Bad news for me, no 2021 Bronco. It is what it is.

 

[BlueBronco]

All of you who think you just missed the allocation cut-off or are on the bubble need to go ahead and submit anyhow. I gave a more real world example to our Texas group but it applies here and to all as well. A bit of math for you:

Little Johnny reserved his Bronco on 7/15 at 8am, is number 160 at Brand X dealership, and is upset he is not going to get a MY21 Bronco.

Brand X dealer reservations prior to 9/18 = 300
Estimated dealer allocations = 90 (it has been determined that all dealers received 30% of their pre 9/18 reservations)
Estimated conversion rate per Ford = 70% (all of us here assume it will be much lower)
Estimated buyers wanting MY21 = 80% (based on some internal surveys 20% are wanting to wait for MY22 available options)

If Lil Johnny does not care to have any of the MY22 options and submits his order to Brand X dealership, will he receive a MY21?

The answer is: Yes!*

With only a 70% conversion rate before him, Lil Johnny becomes #112 on the list. (160 x 0.7 = 112)
With only 80% of those converted buyers wanting a MY21, Lil Johnny becomes #90 (112 x .8 =90)
Now, Lil Johnny can sit back and relax and wait until Q4 for his MY21 Bronco arrive.

*Disclaimer (and must be read fast in radio lawyer voice): assuming an equal conversion rate across all dealerships and not taking into account the other 50% of the allocation formula (competing sales and national sales) which we have no way of accounting for at this time. Also assumes that Ford can build the 60k units they said they could for MY21 and does not drastically reduce that number. Also does not assume a Covid factor for there is no telling how that will affect the supply chain.

 

[A_Locke]

Very sorry to hear that. I am also a day 1/2 reservation holder (put my reservation in around 11 PM EST on the launch day). I think there are a few things that people need to understand.

First, COVID has had a large impact on the auto industry, and continues to. There is currently a massive microchip shortage that nearly every automotive company is battling. This is not something that most companies could have forecasted. No word if this is impacting the Bronco but I'm sure it has at least some effect (source: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55704936). Between this and commodity constraints on other items, it's no surprise certain configurations are short on supplies.

Second, 21MY is going to be a short production run. If Ford's dates are correct, we can expect production vehicles to be sent to customers from June through December. This means that the 21MY production will be roughly half of what it will be for 22MY. Additionally, the plant that makes the Bronco also makes the Ford Ranger. Not only does this plant need to ramp up for making the Bronco, but they also need to continue making the Ranger. That's not easy and it also means that the production ramp up won't be as steep.

Lastly, I do think Ford is being conservative. They don't want to tell customers they can expect to have their vehicles delivered in 2021 only for them to be in 2022. This is also their first time doing this order method for such a popular vehicle. I'm sure they are being cautious with their conversion and delivery estimates.

It really stinks overall. For someone like me who has a vehicle that works for them now and doesn't have a car payment, I am okay with waiting. But for some people out there who are at the end of their lease or have cars on their last leg, these delays can really throw a wrench in their plans.

 

[RedHotFuzz]

As a 7/15 reservation holder, it looks like I no longer have to make the decision between going MY21 or waiting for MY22. The decision has been made for me.

 

[BlueBronco]

I just called my small town dealer.

They have 19 allocations, my number is 30 on the list of 58 reservations.
I have a 7/16 reservation, and the majority of the reservation holders were 13 & 14th.

Bad news for me, no 2021 Bronco. It is what it is.

#30 x 70% x 80% = you better have your order ready.

 

[JaxGtc]

All of you who think you just missed the allocation cut-off or are on the bubble need to go ahead and submit anyhow. I gave a more real world example to our Texas group but it applies here and to all as well. A bit of math for you:

Little Johnny reserved his Bronco on 7/15 at 8am, is number 160 at Brand X dealership, and is upset he is not going to get a MY21 Bronco.

Brand X dealer reservations prior to 9/18 = 300
Estimated dealer allocations = 90 (it has been determined that all dealers received 30% of their pre 9/18 reservations)
Estimated conversion rate per Ford = 70% (all of us here assume it will be much lower)
Estimated buyers wanting MY21 = 80% (based on some internal surveys 20% are wanting to wait for MY22 available options)

If Lil Johnny does not care to have any of the MY22 options and submits his order to Brand X dealership, will he receive a MY21?

The answer is: Yes!*

With only a 70% conversion rate before him, Lil Johnny becomes #112 on the list. (160 x 0.7 = 112)
With only 80% of those converted buyers wanting a MY21, Lil Johnny becomes #90 (112 x .8 =90)
Now, Lil Johnny can sit back and relax and wait until Q4 for his MY21 Bronco arrive.

Then the dealership owner calls the Bronco manager and tells him his wife's sister called and her grandson is turning 16 and she wants to buy him a Bronco..... Little Johnny is 91.
Ok, it was such compelling story I felt like I had to add to it.
Seriously, I like where you are going with the logic and I think that many of the assumptions are in the ballpark.

 

[RedHotFuzz]

Just think how much customer rage Ford could alleviate by simply calling all first-year Broncos 2022s. It's so simple, even a marketing caveman can do it. Geez, the 2022 Acura MDX is starting to hit dealer lots right now.

 

[Gr8Hortoni]

I think the allocation fiasco is the result of Ford pacifying whiny dealers that were pissed that aggressive, transparent pricing by customer-focused dealers (Granger, Stephens et al) we’re taking all the reservations. If that’s true it’s disappointing to say the least. I have a lot stronger words for it but I’m trying to refrain....

You’re not wrong, none of this allocation shit came into play until Granger and Stephen’s started gaining traction, then all of a sudden they cut one leg and shot the other one. And you’re starting to see the ADM’s and add ons start coming back around after Ford stated it wouldn’t happen. This thing needs to be as awesome as it’s being touted, because, Covid or not, this has to be one of the shittiest vehicle rollouts in history from a customer viewpoint.

 

[Judge Rufus]

But they got shafted for doing a better job of attracting buyers.

Nope. All dealers received a 30% initial allocation. If Stephens has 800 reservations and received 240 allocations, but had they not attracted more buyers and only had 350 reservations, then their allocation would have been 105.

They didn't get shafted.

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