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Bronco allocations released to dealers

TurkeyRun

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Razorback

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I think we'll see big market dealers will not have as many as a percentage of reservations vs rural dealers. Big market dealers are too saturated based on formula. But I don't see how they've already started announcing allocation since orders haven't even been placed.
 

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I just got an email from my Zone manager with our allocation, I'm hoping its very wrong, but if its not we only got enough allocation to fill our 7/14 and 7/15 orders. I'm hoping its an error, but things could be about to get ugly.

Edit- Just talked to the zone rep, number was correct. He said it was about 30% of the reservations (by 9/18) for most dealers and that matches mine. He did say to remember that this was the estimate, it will change based on the number of reservations that cancel, and they're expecting more cancellations at certain dealers so he's hoping that the number will go up as they loose allocations.
I guess refreshing the screen on launch night on two different devices, the same way I tried to get 2012 Detroit Tigers playoff tickets, was worth it.
 

j_marinelli

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I guess refreshing the screen on launch night on two different devices, the same way I tried to get 2012 Detroit Tigers playoff tickets, was worth it.
Took me a couple hours to figure this out on launch night LOL
 

vrtical

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Took me a couple hours to figure this out on launch night LOL
I am an IT person, you wouldnt believe how many devices I had going, but in the end my res ended up 7/14/2020 6:54 AM EST. Feel like I got a golden ticket :cool:
 

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It's all speculation at this point.

Just my simple math. The production capacity for 2021 MY is approximately 70,000.

There's roughly 200,000 reservations let's say 70% (I think that's high) convert to orders. That means half of reservations will be a 2022 MY Bronco.

How many of our reservation holders want a black painted top? How many want a mansquatch? How many wanted a painted white top? 2.7L engine? Etc.

There's so many moving parts, I'd hate to tell someone they're out when we could get them one. I'd also hate to over-promise without knowing I can get it done. At this point it's pure speculation.

I can guarantee you that we will do our best on the dealer level to treat our customers well.

No crazy dealer fees, easy communication and try to treat our customers the way we'd like to be treated.
This is great and I know you will always treat your customers right, which is why many are going to stick with you. We know you things will change as you've mentioned and will this impact who gets a Bronco and when.

But in the meantime, can you please share what your preliminary allocation # is - so we can get a broad sense of how many you may be able to get versus the 1200+ Reservations you have?

Asking for some friends...
 

Drex

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Ford Bronco Bronco allocations released to dealers (PNG Image, 835 × 281 pixels)


sigh, while some folks seems to be gleefully announcing certain people are screwed big time... let's do some math estimation before falling into a pit of doom and gloom. Ford had 165k reservations in the first two weeks, from the chart on this forum (above) showing distribution of reservation dates, the data is locked so I cannot get an exact number in the first two days, but it eyeballs upwards of 80% was in the first two days.

Three assumptions (which may be false and skew everything, make no mistake, but I believe they are all conservative and will be fairly close)

(assumptions) My first assumption is that the dealer is assuming 100% conversion rate at their specific dealership and the second is that the 80% or so reservations in the first two days holds true for reservations off the forum as well. The third is that Ford gave them a number for allocations and not a percentage of their reservations (which is almost certainly true)

So right off the bat (if the assumptions hold) the dealer has allocations for 80% of all their reservations if they are allocated enough to cover the first two days worth.

If the dealer converts at the 70% (see assumptions for all numbered items) rate which is Ford's best estimate of the conversion rate, will yield some interesting results. (using 200 reservations in the first two days at a hypothetical dealer in the math to come, just so give a better feel for what is happening, it would scale to nationwide if the assumptions are vailid)

1) If 80% of all their reservations were in the first two days and they had 200, then they have 200/0.8 or 250 reservations all together.

2) Since we are arbitrarily fixing the number of reservations in the first two days at 200 and the dealer says they have allocations for that many, they got 200 allocations.

3) if the dealer just took those 200 allocations and went down the list until they counted 200 slots they covered the first two days. That means the dealer assumed 100% conversion rate, meaning 200 (80%) get their '21 and the remaining 50 get a '22 (20%) (maybe true maybe not true, we will circle back at the end).

If the dealer (and by extension most/all dealers) get the 70% conversion rate Ford expects and this dealer still gets 200 units allocated, but will only use 140 of his 200 allocations on the first 200 reservations that gives another 60 for the rest of the post first two day orders. That covers all of them even if they got 100% conversion on the last 50 reservations.

If the reservations convert at lower than 70%, it will mean even more people get their truck in 2021.

Bottom line is that, worst case, 80% of people get a '21 and best case is all of them do with allocations left over, which fits in with Ford having around 30 weeks of production available @ 5000ish units a week on average (150k total units produced) and 195K reservations (70% of which would be 136500 units requested).

This is actually extremely positive news for people that want a '21 and not so great for anyone who wants to be pushed to a '22 unless they are making a reservation today (and if they cancel an earlier one, the move back up one in line as well, so it may not make a difference at all if the commodities all come through.)


to be more precise would require the actual two day numbers from the chart at the top, and verification that the dealer got a set number of allocations (the real number is not needed, just verification it was an actual number and not a percentage)

of course just an exercise in percentages and assumptions, the key take away is even if dealers only get enough allocations to cover the first couple of days, it is almost all the reservations and the remaining ones are going to come relatively quickly.
 

j_marinelli

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I am an IT person, you wouldnt believe how many devices I had going, but in the end my res ended up 7/14/2020 6:54 AM EST. Feel like I got a golden ticket :cool:
I was too busy multitasking on this forum with all y'all clowns. Still happy to get one on launch night (though it does say 7/14)
 

Pancho Kornwallace

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I am an IT person, you wouldnt believe how many devices I had going, but in the end my res ended up 7/14/2020 6:54 AM EST. Feel like I got a golden ticket :cool:
Didn't the pre-orders not open until 7 or 8pm on 7/14?
How was that possible?
 

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j_marinelli

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BigSteveO

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Interesting, it seems that each dealer is allowed to handle their business as they see fit.

My dealer has said that if they receive 100 allocations, they will contact customers based upon their reservation number. When they reach 100 orders they will no longer accept any further orders, until they receive their second allocation and the process starts over again. So waiting until later in February of March will result in not being able to order at all- even if you have a low reservation number.

They have also said that customers will be responsible for entering the orders, as we will NOT be allowed into the dealership to place orders due to COVID-19.

Are dealers receiving more than one allocation for 2021 models?
From Ford
Your reservation* timestamp, and not the date that you place your order with your dealer, will be used to determine when your Bronco gets produced. Other factors for final delivery timing include vehicle model and configuration selected, part constraints, and the number of Bronco vehicles your dealer will receive.
 

Blksn955.o

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So let's run with the 70k 21 capacity. 200k at 70% is a pipe dream. 40%...I feel is generous and is 80k. Much better odds...not to mention all the people waiting for late availability. I see that being a bigger crunch zone getting all the late availability builds in before 22.

if you put in or are using a reservation from Sept onward you should have been thinking 21 was a crapshot and 22 was more realistic.


Either way I am good in my order option, my reservation time, and happy to stick with Granger.
 

Tonka Bronka

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Of course they can place an order through any dealer they want. It doesn’t mean that they’ll get theirs this year though. Ford is limiting the amount of orders that will be built this year per dealer. Does that make sense?
Nope, makes no sense to me. I said it before, if they start playing games because some dealers are crying, they can deliver mine to the moon! We will see.
 

jaspercasidino

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Ford Bronco Bronco allocations released to dealers (PNG Image, 835 × 281 pixels)


sigh, while some folks seems to be gleefully announcing certain people are screwed big time... let's do some math estimation before falling into a pit of doom and gloom. Ford had 165k reservations in the first two weeks, from the chart on this forum (above) showing distribution of reservation dates, the data is locked so I cannot get an exact number in the first two days, but it eyeballs upwards of 80% was in the first two days.

Three assumptions (which may be false and skew everything, make no mistake, but I believe they are all conservative and will be fairly close)

(assumptions) My first assumption is that the dealer is assuming 100% conversion rate at their specific dealership and the second is that the 80% or so reservations in the first two days holds true for reservations off the forum as well. The third is that Ford gave them a number for allocations and not a percentage of their reservations (which is almost certainly true)

So right off the bat (if the assumptions hold) the dealer has allocations for 80% of all their reservations if they are allocated enough to cover the first two days worth.

If the dealer converts at the 70% (see assumptions for all numbered items) rate which is Ford's best estimate of the conversion rate, will yield some interesting results. (using 200 reservations in the first two days at a hypothetical dealer in the math to come, just so give a better feel for what is happening, it would scale to nationwide if the assumptions are vailid)

1) If 80% of all their reservations were in the first two days and they had 200, then they have 200/0.8 or 250 reservations all together.

2) Since we are arbitrarily fixing the number of reservations in the first two days at 200 and the dealer says they have allocations for that many, they got 200 allocations.

3) if the dealer just took those 200 allocations and went down the list until they counted 200 slots they covered the first two days. That means the dealer assumed 100% conversion rate, meaning 200 (80%) get their '21 and the remaining 50 get a '22 (20%) (maybe true maybe not true, we will circle back at the end).

If the dealer (and by extension most/all dealers) get the 70% conversion rate Ford expects and this dealer still gets 200 units allocated, but will only use 140 of his 200 allocations on the first 200 reservations that gives another 60 for the rest of the post first two day orders. That covers all of them even if they got 100% conversion on the last 50 reservations.

If the reservations convert at lower than 70%, it will mean even more people get their truck in 2021.

Bottom line is that, worst case, 80% of people get a '21 and best case is all of them do with allocations left over, which fits in with Ford having around 30 weeks of production available @ 5000ish units a week on average (150k total units produced) and 195K reservations (70% of which would be 136500 units requested).

This is actually extremely positive news for people that want a '21 and not so great for anyone who wants to be pushed to a '22 unless they are making a reservation today (and if they cancel an earlier one, the move back up one in line as well, so it may not make a difference at all if the commodities all come through.)


to be more precise would require the actual two day numbers from the chart at the top, and verification that the dealer got a set number of allocations (the real number is not needed, just verification it was an actual number and not a percentage)

of course just an exercise in percentages and assumptions, the key take away is even if dealers only get enough allocations to cover the first couple of days, it is almost all the reservations and the remaining ones are going to come relatively quickly.
OP says their allocation about 30% of their reservations up through 9/18 which is the date Ford says is the cutoff date for the allocation formula. I don’t think the math can be shown to be a good thing and not near 80% as I think you have suggested.
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