Bronco delivery date calculations based on estimated production rate

[Grooticus]

So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.

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[Petey]

I think you should do this for 40% and 30% because that’s where we’re going to see the real conversion percentage.

Also, how did you come up with the number for builds per week?

 

[Grooticus]

I think you should do this for 40% and 30% because that’s where we’re going to see the real conversion percentage.

I need to save something to do later...LOL

 

[Petey]

Ford said that they can send F-150’s out the door, 1 every 53 seconds. If the Bronco can have a similar production rate, and they work two shifts (16 hours a day) at 7 days a week that would be about 6,720 Broncos.

EDIT: At this rate above with 30% conversion, they have all orders fulfilled in 3.5 months, which if they start in March, that would be all of the orders by June.

 

[North7]

So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.

Good stuff, do these numbers take into consideration the Bronco and Ranger share the same production line as far as your BPW calculation goes?

 

[Shotsy]

This all depends on Ford knowing what the hell they're doing with the Bronco. If the unveiling, B&P and Reservations are any indication, I wouldn't be surprised if they push out 100 Bronco per day and consider that a success.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

This is some next level shit. You remind me of myself, this is something I would sit down and doodle out over an hour or so.

Good luck with your 35-58 week wait. ??

 

[Petey]

This all depends on Ford knowing what the hell they're doing with the Bronco. If the unveiling, B&P and Reservations are any indication, I wouldn't be surprised if they push out 100 Bronco per day and consider that a success.

There is no way their production line isn’t going to push out well over 10x that amount, maybe even 50x. They are building this thing in their Ranger plant because of how similar these two vehicles are. I’m guessing is the Ranger worked out a lot of the kinks on their assembly line and should be full stop ready for the Bronco. The biggest question in my mind, is conversion rate from reservation to orders.

 

[Grooticus]

I took the BPW numbers from someplace I read at full production they expect 700-800 a day. I also saw somewhere they are only intending on builds taking place 5 days a week. I paired that number down a few times because they will not be at full production from the jump and it will take a little while to get to that 700-800 daily.
nobody will be upset getting them early right? Lol

 

[BlueBronco]

I think your total reservation count is high. last I read a few weeks ago there was around 185k, I would think 200k would still be high.

Your Bronco build per week is fairly close. My research shows a total plant capacity of 5300/wk and it has been stated that they will build Broncos and Rangers at a 60/40 split. Resulting in 3180 Broncos per week once they are at full production.

 

[ZackDanger]

There is no way their production line isn’t going to push out well over 10x that amount, maybe even 50x. They are building this thing in their Ranger plant because of how similar these two vehicles are. I’m guessing is the Ranger worked out a lot of the kinks on their assembly line and should be full stop ready for the Bronco. The biggest question in my mind, is conversion rate from reservation to orders.

My understanding is that the Bronco is being built along side the Ranger... not replacing it on the line.

Meaning, Bronco will be a fraction of the total plant output... the question of the day is what is the ratio of Rangers to Broncos... that'll tell us how fast they can make them.

::EDIT:: @BlueBronco beat me to it. 60/40 split, though the implication is heavy on the Broncos... and for some reason I thought it was going to be heavy on the Ranger.

 

[Petey]

I think your total reservation count is high. last I read a few weeks ago there was around 185k, I would think 200k would still be high.

Your Bronco build per week is fairly close. My research shows a total plant capacity of 5300/wk and it has been stated that they will build Broncos and Rangers at a 60/40 split. Resulting in 3180 Broncos per week once they are at full production.

This seems about right.

im guessing they’ve surplused some Rangers for awhile now, so they could up the ratio a bit to get through orders.

 

[brocotect]

I see a lot about getting that white roof next year but has ford actually said they're doing a white roof option.

Cause that would be a serious kick in the nuts if they didn't and all these people waited.

 

[Grooticus]

I see a lot about getting that white roof next year but has ford actually said they're doing a white roof option.

Cause that would be a serious kick in the nuts if they didn't and all these people waited.

I’ve seen it listed as MY22 on some chart that was labeling things Late Delivery. Personally I would really like the white top as I said before, but if they called me in June I’d be happy with MIC haha. Getting more time to put savings together played a role in my delay as much as the white top

 

[Beach_Bum]

I’ve seen it listed as MY22 on some chart that was labeling things Late Delivery. Personally I would really like the white top as I said before, but if they called me in June I’d be happy with MIC haha. Getting more time to put savings together played a role in my delay as much as the white top

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