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Bronco delivery date calculations based on estimated production rate

flatlander40

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Too many unknown variables to even guess, expect for what Gord has already told us
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I think you should do this for 40% and 30% because that’s where we’re going to see the real conversion percentage.

Also, how did you come up with the number for builds per week?
I don't think there is any way it's that low. I hope it is so I get mine quicker, but highly doubt it. Ford projected 70%...no way they throw number that out to shareholders and then have it end up being half of that. I am sure that number was well founded in data they gathered. It's all an educated guess, but I would think they paid a lot of attention to that projection. Ford said they were over 190k reservations as of an Oct 27th article, so I would think it's North of 200k now, but not at 250k.
 

shoelessjoe

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I don't think there is any way it's that low. I hope it is so I get mine quicker, but highly doubt it. Ford projected 70%...no way they throw number that out to shareholders and then have it end up being half of that. I am sure that number was well founded in data they gathered. It's all an educated guess, but I would think they paid a lot of attention to that projection. Ford said they were over 190k reservations as of an Oct 27th article, so I would think it's North of 200k now, but not at 250k.
How does Ford really know how many people are going to actually buy from those that have reserved? Life happens to all of us and things come up and things change. Plus we are still in the midst of a Pandemic and things could get shut down again and more people go on unemployment. I would say the % of buyers from reserves might be 50% at best, just my opinion. If we weren't going through a pandemic i would say more than 60% at least.
 

Petey

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How does Ford really know how many people are going to actually buy from those that have reserved? Life happens to all of us and things come up and things change. Plus we are still in the midst of a Pandemic and things could get shut down again and more people go on unemployment. I would say the % of buyers from reserves might be 50% at best, just my opinion. If we weren't going through a pandemic i would say more than 60% at least.
Yeah I don’t buy the whole “they wouldn’t tell the shareholders 70% unless it was true thing” because exactly what you said above. They have a lot of excuses to back out of that number when it’s eventually less than 50%.

I could still see a scenario where they do convert 70% of the orders though, if they are doing what my dealership is doing ~ not asking for additional deposit. That means the dealership will convince you to convert the order, and come 2021 and your truck gets delivered, they’ll give you the $100 if you want to back out of it, and then put it on the lot with ADM for $2,500 over MSRP. Some people on here say Ford will punish dealerships who do this, but I don’t buy it, because what actually is stopping them?
 

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Ford said that they can send F-150’s out the door, 1 every 53 seconds. If the Bronco can have a similar production rate, and they work two shifts (16 hours a day) at 7 days a week that would be about 6,720 Broncos.

EDIT: At this rate above with 30% conversion, they have all orders fulfilled in 3.5 months, which if they start in March, that would be all of the orders by June.
Ranger is built on the same line.
 

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How does Ford really know how many people are going to actually buy from those that have reserved? Life happens to all of us and things come up and things change. Plus we are still in the midst of a Pandemic and things could get shut down again and more people go on unemployment. I would say the % of buyers from reserves might be 50% at best, just my opinion. If we weren't going through a pandemic i would say more than 60% at least.
They poll and do market research. Do they know? No...but they don't just take a guess like we do on those things, they make a careful assessment. Market factors could contribute to changes...but I bet they are not far off barring any big things happening between now and order time.
 

ZackDanger

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They poll and do market research. Do they know? No...but they don't just take a guess like we do on those things, they make a careful assessment. Market factors could contribute to changes...but I bet they are not far off barring any big things happening between now and order time.
Yeah... it's their job to be able to forecast these types of things. I wouldn't be able to make a guess on conversion rates, but I'm sure there's a team of people at Ford (and the people they hire) who are well equipped to.

Also, it just occurred to me... I wonder if the 70% conversion rate is actually more nuanced... like, they typically expect to sell an amount of vehicles in a new launch that is roughly equal to 70% of reservations they take for the vehicle (between reservation conversions and people walking in off the street).
 

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Was hoping someone did the math. Nice work!
Thanks for showing your work. Some things to ponder if modeling and estimating:

Given production will share Ranger facilities, parts, and line:
Ranger sales (SALES) are at around 85k to 100k/yr North America. No idea how many are actually produced.
Bronco offered a refundable low cost deposit with option for two deposits.... I imagine there are numerous peeps that placed 2 deposits. (I didn't think twice about it. its $100 bucks and I can get it back... duh)
Defender, 4Runner, and Jeep have stepped up their game... All $50k+ nicely equipped. I imagine there will be quite a few that got/get tired of waiting to drop that kind of money on a vehicle they are buying sight unseen...
 

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So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
I would like to say that, I am with you on this my brother! There might be hope we get our bronqs earlier than we thought! ???
 

mds5917

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Anyone on this forum is a lot more "invested" in this than the 'average consumer'. I had two other people on my work team that I later learned had put in reservations on the first day or so. I believe both of those are no longer likely to complete the transaction for various reasons. This tells me the conversion rate is probably nowhere near the 70% number. Not sure that means I'm not going to be driving that Z3 for a long time since my XC90 lease ends in Feb, but I'm hoping it goes quickly...
 

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So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
Where did you get your 250,000 reservation number? Last I heard it was 170K, so that would throw your figures off. FORD said they could build 150,000 Broncos in 2021. My guess, anyone that reserved by the end of August that actually places their order should get it in 2021.
 
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Where did you get your 250,000 reservation number? Last I heard it was 170K, so that would throw your figures off. FORD said they could build 150,000 Broncos in 2020. My guess, anyone that reserved by the end of August that actually places their order should get it in 2020.
No one is getting anything in 2020. Where did they say they could build 150,000 in the first year?
 

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So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
good stuff...

going deeper... because, why not!

I took a look at the reservations tab, and it looks like close to 60% of reservations are made in the first 3 days. If I remember stats correctly, you only need about 800 data points to start drawing trends. And since over 5k have answered that poll, it should be a pretty good indication. HOWEVER, we do need to adjust for the fact that most ppl on this forum are enthusiasts, so you're going to get more early reservations here than anywhere else.

So we bump down a few percentage points to allow for that. But to make it easy, let's go with 50%. Now, of conversions, 50% of them are the first 3 days.

If 140k (of 200k) convert (based on what others are saying with the 70% conversion rate Ford is expecting). and 50% of those are within the first 3 days... 70k will be built within we'll say 22 weeks. (I used 3200/week) So if you ordered on the 3rd day, it could take up to 5 months to get your bronco.

If they start in March? (I think that's what I saw) You could have ordered on Day 3 and won't see your Bronco till August.

Ford Bronco Bronco delivery date calculations based on estimated production rate 1606841647391


Am I thinking correctly here?
 

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Ford has not given us a breakdown of reservations per day. Let's say 50k reservations were made on July 15, and the plant can produce 15k a month. That would mean reservations made the morning of July 15th would be built in May, and evening reservations built in July or August.

We just don't know. There are too many variables we don't have solid answers on. I feel like a lot of people who reserved in July are going to be disappointed when they find out hey are not eligible to order until March or later.
 
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Ford has not given us a breakdown of reservations per day. Let's say 50k reservations were made on July 15, and the plant can produce 15k a month. That would mean reservations made the morning of July 15th would be built in May, and evening reservations built in July or August.

We just don't know. There are too many variables we don't have solid answers on. I feel like a lot of people who reserved in July are going to be disappointed when they find out hey are not eligible to order until March or later.
Well I am pretty sure you’re right about at least 1 thing, if orders aren’t going in until March there will be a lot of disappointment people.
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