Too many unknown variables to even guess, expect for what Gord has already told us
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I don't think there is any way it's that low. I hope it is so I get mine quicker, but highly doubt it. Ford projected 70%...no way they throw number that out to shareholders and then have it end up being half of that. I am sure that number was well founded in data they gathered. It's all an educated guess, but I would think they paid a lot of attention to that projection. Ford said they were over 190k reservations as of an Oct 27th article, so I would think it's North of 200k now, but not at 250k.I think you should do this for 40% and 30% because that’s where we’re going to see the real conversion percentage.
Also, how did you come up with the number for builds per week?
How does Ford really know how many people are going to actually buy from those that have reserved? Life happens to all of us and things come up and things change. Plus we are still in the midst of a Pandemic and things could get shut down again and more people go on unemployment. I would say the % of buyers from reserves might be 50% at best, just my opinion. If we weren't going through a pandemic i would say more than 60% at least.I don't think there is any way it's that low. I hope it is so I get mine quicker, but highly doubt it. Ford projected 70%...no way they throw number that out to shareholders and then have it end up being half of that. I am sure that number was well founded in data they gathered. It's all an educated guess, but I would think they paid a lot of attention to that projection. Ford said they were over 190k reservations as of an Oct 27th article, so I would think it's North of 200k now, but not at 250k.
Yeah I don’t buy the whole “they wouldn’t tell the shareholders 70% unless it was true thing” because exactly what you said above. They have a lot of excuses to back out of that number when it’s eventually less than 50%.How does Ford really know how many people are going to actually buy from those that have reserved? Life happens to all of us and things come up and things change. Plus we are still in the midst of a Pandemic and things could get shut down again and more people go on unemployment. I would say the % of buyers from reserves might be 50% at best, just my opinion. If we weren't going through a pandemic i would say more than 60% at least.
Ranger is built on the same line.Ford said that they can send F-150’s out the door, 1 every 53 seconds. If the Bronco can have a similar production rate, and they work two shifts (16 hours a day) at 7 days a week that would be about 6,720 Broncos.
EDIT: At this rate above with 30% conversion, they have all orders fulfilled in 3.5 months, which if they start in March, that would be all of the orders by June.
They poll and do market research. Do they know? No...but they don't just take a guess like we do on those things, they make a careful assessment. Market factors could contribute to changes...but I bet they are not far off barring any big things happening between now and order time.How does Ford really know how many people are going to actually buy from those that have reserved? Life happens to all of us and things come up and things change. Plus we are still in the midst of a Pandemic and things could get shut down again and more people go on unemployment. I would say the % of buyers from reserves might be 50% at best, just my opinion. If we weren't going through a pandemic i would say more than 60% at least.
Yeah... it's their job to be able to forecast these types of things. I wouldn't be able to make a guess on conversion rates, but I'm sure there's a team of people at Ford (and the people they hire) who are well equipped to.They poll and do market research. Do they know? No...but they don't just take a guess like we do on those things, they make a careful assessment. Market factors could contribute to changes...but I bet they are not far off barring any big things happening between now and order time.
I would like to say that, I am with you on this my brother! There might be hope we get our bronqs earlier than we thought! ???So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share
reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.
250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks
250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks
250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks
250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks
250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks
hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
Where did you get your 250,000 reservation number? Last I heard it was 170K, so that would throw your figures off. FORD said they could build 150,000 Broncos in 2021. My guess, anyone that reserved by the end of August that actually places their order should get it in 2021.So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share
reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.
250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks
250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks
250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks
250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks
250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks
hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
No one is getting anything in 2020. Where did they say they could build 150,000 in the first year?Where did you get your 250,000 reservation number? Last I heard it was 170K, so that would throw your figures off. FORD said they could build 150,000 Broncos in 2020. My guess, anyone that reserved by the end of August that actually places their order should get it in 2020.
good stuff...So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share
reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.
250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks
250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks
250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks
250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks
250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks
hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
Well I am pretty sure you’re right about at least 1 thing, if orders aren’t going in until March there will be a lot of disappointment people.Ford has not given us a breakdown of reservations per day. Let's say 50k reservations were made on July 15, and the plant can produce 15k a month. That would mean reservations made the morning of July 15th would be built in May, and evening reservations built in July or August.
We just don't know. There are too many variables we don't have solid answers on. I feel like a lot of people who reserved in July are going to be disappointed when they find out hey are not eligible to order until March or later.