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Bronco delivery date calculations based on estimated production rate

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Ford has not given us a breakdown of reservations per day. Let's say 50k reservations were made on July 15, and the plant can produce 15k a month. That would mean reservations made the morning of July 15th would be built in May, and evening reservations built in July or August.

We just don't know. There are too many variables we don't have solid answers on. I feel like a lot of people who reserved in July are going to be disappointed when they find out hey are not eligible to order until March or later.
No, they haven't. But using the reservation data that has been collected on this site, you can pretty much figure it out. 5k is more than enough date to come up with a trend. Again, you may need to adjust down a bit, bc you likely have a higher concentration of first few day reservations on this forum just because of who the members are.

I haven't looked at it in a while, but I do remember when I did, it was a little under 60% of all reservations were within the first 3 days. The other 40% was spread out between 7/16 & current date.

For the most part, you can take those numbers and apply them to the total, and it should get you within the ballpark.

EDIT: just went and looked again. It's worse than I thought, lol.

5898 reservations recorded.
7/13 - 1019
7/14 - 1935
7/15 - 533
7/16 - 297
Total: 3784 reservations or 64% are made within the first 4 days. (sorry, I was stupidly looking at 7/13-7/16 as 3 days, doh)

You could break this down more if you wanted...
7/13 - 17%
7/14 - 33%
7/15 - 1%
7/16 - .5%

So take the total reservation number and you can apply the percentages about to figure out how many were made on what day.

Like I said, 5898 is a really big data set. I'm fairly confident Ford is seeing the same kind of numbers on their end.

**again, my only caveat is it's probably a good idea to lower these percentages by a few points since there's probably a larger number of ppl here who would've reserved in the first few days.
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DUSTYcazOREGON

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No one is getting anything in 2020. Where did they say they could build 150,000 in the first year?
typo...2021. That was put out by FORD.
 

ttaylor667

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I think the data is misleading. 35-39 weeks for delivery would put it out to August 30ish 2021. Using the original logic, you can expect the last delivery being August 2021. The folks that were in the first several days of reservation i.e. mid July, would see theirs shortly after production begins.
 

ramblinwreck

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I think the data is misleading. 35-39 weeks for delivery would put it out to August 30ish 2021. Using the original logic, you can expect the last delivery being August 2021. The folks that were in the first several days of reservation i.e. mid July, would see theirs shortly after production begins.
I think you did the math wrong. 35 weeks to delivery from an April production start will end up in December of 2021.
 

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Let's also not forget about logistics. Sure 'your' bronco could be done within the first few weeks, but then they have to ship it. And they're obviously not going to ship one at a time. So they'll start to group them by region, then get more and more local until they have enough cars to drop off at your dealer. I have ZERO experience in distribution, but I'd imagine after the factory build they get shipped to a staging area? where then not only bronco's but other fords are grouped for distribution to regions, and then once they get to the region, they're again grouped by dealers, and then shipped? I honestly have zero clue. I just remember commuting home from NYC to NJ every day and as we crossed over the bridge into Newark on 78 I'd see 1000's of cars one day, and then the next they'd be gone. I just assumed it was a stop over for distribution to the area.

so most likely your Bronco will be completed, but it could take weeks to get to it's final destination. Someone's gotta earn that $1495!
 

CaseyH

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So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
It has been a while since I read it, but an article I read a couple months back stated the factory is expecting to build 1000 Broncos per day and 200 Rangers per day. This is of course after full ramp up which will likely take a month or so to achieve. I tried finding the article but was unable to.
 

ttaylor667

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I think you did the math wrong. 35 weeks to delivery from an April production start will end up in December of 2021.
My math is correct, provided that production began on 12/01/20... lol

The premise is still correct in that delivery is rolling, and not 175k units waiting 39 weeks for delivery.
 

Ksjrb03

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Your BPW is pretty spot on, only thing I would add is dont forget it will take quite a while to get to that max production. MAP currently runs one shift a day 5 days a week. They are adding a second shift and some Saturdays for "catch up" but it will mostly be a 5 day a week plant still. Getting everything lined out for two shifts, new employees trained and working efficiently, etc. If Job 1 stays late March, it will be around late May by the time we see 800 Broncos a day.
 
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Your BPW is pretty spot on, only thing I would add is dont forget it will take quite a while to get to that max production. MAP currently runs one shift a day 5 days a week. They are adding a second shift and some Saturdays for "catch up" but it will mostly be a 5 day a week plant still. Getting everything lined out for two shifts, new employees trained and working efficiently, etc. If Job 1 stays late March, it will be around late May by the time we see 800 Broncos a day.
This was why I worked down to 3000 a week. I figured once it got to full production of 800 a day or 4000 a week it would take a while to get the average up.
 

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So let me start by saying I play Very excited about getting my new Bronco which I just put my reservation in on yesterday. I intentionally waited until I felt I would be ensured a MY with a white roof. Enough about me, let me explain what I did in my infinite boredom. *all math is estimated and rounded
I took the number of reservations and multiplied by the F number of expected orders. Then I looked at the number of Broncos it’s possible to make in a week. But my boredom did not stop there! I then tweaked those numbers to what might be more realistic for both actual orders and actual Broncos made per week. Once I finished that I realized I had spent to much time on math not to share with like minded bored and obsessed people. So because I ordered last these answers are roughly how long it should take to get through all 250,000 reservation. If you have an idea where you are in the mix you should be able to roughly estimate how many weeks you will need to wait. Allow me to share

reservations x % = Y # of orders. Then Y/total estimated builds per week = total weeks to wait.

250k X 70%= 175k.
175k/3500 BPW = 50 weeks. /3200 BPW = 54 weeks
/3400 BPW = 51 weeks. /3100 BPW = 56weeks
/3300 BPW = 53 weeks. /3000 BPW = 58 weeks

250k X 65% = 162.5k
162.5k/3500 BPW = 46wks. /3200 BPW = 51 wks
/3400 BPW = 48wks. /3100 BPW = 52 wks
/3300 BPW = 49wks. /3000 BPW = 54 wks

250k X 60% = 150k
150k/3500 BPW = 43 wks. /3200 BPW = 47 wks
/3400. BPW = 44 wks. /3100 BPW = 48 wks.
/3300 BPW = 45 wks. /3000 BPW = 50 wks

250k X 55% = 137.5k
137.5k/3500 BPW = 39 wks. /3200 BPW = 43 wks
/3400 BPW = 40 wks. /3100 BPW = 44 wks
/3300 BPW = 42 wks. /3000 BPW = 46wks

250k X 50% = 125k
125k/3500 BPW = 36 wks. /3200 BPW = 39 wks
/3400 BPW = 37 wks. /3100 BPW = 40 wks.
/3300 BPW = 38wks. /3000 BPW = 42 wks

hope this helps somebody and once building starts I will know I’m somewhere between 58 weeks and 35 weeks away.
 

JHawk

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So I assume (big assumtion), if I order late availability items I will be near the end?
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