Bronco EV from the "Power Company Guy" Perspective

[Hossfire]

Hey Bronco fans. I work in a market research area at a fairly large electric utility. I have done some EV studies and am fairly well versed in the decisions that the OEMs are making.

Here are some thoughts:

Charging infrastructure is still a big barrier to consumer acceptance. Since the Bronco is built for the "wild", a hybrid option seems more likely than full EV in the near future. Ford will be closely watching Jeep's hybrid model.

The F150 Lightning EV (imho) is a prelude to large shifts in fleet sales to EVs. Publically held companies are being pushed by institutional investors to reduce their carbon footprints. Many state and local governments will do the same. I expect that we will start to see local police departments migrate to EV Explorers.

Bronco won't have a significant fleet sales %. It's a wonderfully impractical vehicle

The Hummer EV is really a limited production teaser to show off technology. I always thought the H2 was a big bloated joke (and I think the same of the new EV). The gem of the brand was the H3. Like the Toyota FJ Cruiser, the H3s will have a collectors market for years to come.

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[MrJoe]

I always saw the H-3 as a S-10 in high heels...

 

[Seventyfouronthefloor]

I expect to see EV's for most fleet vehicles and hydrogen coming along (10 years later) for consumer vehicles. If we had better (any) high speed rail we wouldn't need the hydrogen.

In anticipation of a significant gas tax hike before I plan to sell my bronco, I personally am dropping down to a bronco base from badlands now that Cyber Orange is available on that trim, whilst also ordering a maverick XL in CO for $21,500 out the door. For $7500 more than what the Badlands costs I can have a decent daily driver that gets 40MPG+.

I drive 20,000 miles a year in a personal vehicle for work (in-person technical consulting) and the extra 22+mpg that the Maverick Hybrid gets over the Bronco means I'm saving $2500-3K per year at $3/gal fuel. If there's a $1/gal carbon tax (or more) that payback will get even shorter. Regardless, in 3 years I'll have effectively covered the additional cost of the Maverick XL, whilst also not de-valuing the resale potential of the Bronco with 75,000+ miles in the first 3 years of ownership. I don't care about trashing the maverick with miles, that's why its only the XL model.

If the Maverick was an EV I'd be tempted to forgo the bronco base option for now, but we also don't really have the charging infrastructure in my area to make it worthwhile. I see the maverick as a stepping stone to the lightning for me, rather than a bronco EV. Hopefully, 20 years from now when gas is $8/gal (if its still available) I can use the lightning as a daily driver/tow rig that I use to get the bronco to the trailhead.

 

[Exomodo]

My problem with pure EV plays is if the entire global fleet was replaced in 10 years, there wouldn't be enough energy available at any point in a standard day to allow normal mileage. We desperately need durable base load generation where wind and solar are intermittent and dilute. Nuclear is the only generation capability that meets carbon free requirements and we've been decommissioning faster than building next generation replacements. Hydrogen has dirty secrets that make it a terrible long term solution - ie. Leakage, and it's a battery, energy input to make or crack it is required. If it's a hard mandate, our economy is fuct.

 

[Hossfire]

My problem with pure EV plays is if the entire global fleet was replaced in 10 years, there wouldn't be enough energy available at any point in a standard day to allow normal mileage. We desperately need durable base load generation where wind and solar are intermittent and dilute. Nuclear is the only generation capability that meets carbon free requirements and we've been decommissioning faster than building next generation replacements. Hydrogen has dirty secrets that make it a terrible long term solution - ie. Leakage, and it's a battery, energy input to make or crack it is required. If it's a hard mandate, our economy is fuct.

The Westinghouse debacle set back nuclear more than a decade. I have done a bunch of modeling that shows that we need to go bigger into nuclear and carbon capture natural gas. Lithium ion batteries have a role, but generally are better to support the grid rather than economically time-shift wind and solar.

The DOE is funding a small modular reactor for the Tennessee Valley Authority. Smaller, safer, no need for a huge land buffer for containment. Eventually they will be cheaper.

Wind and solar have role to play, but California and Texas are struggling to keep the grid stable at 25% renewable energy.

 

[Hossfire]

I always saw the H-3 as a S-10 in high heels...

The 5-cylinder was a little underpowered. It was a nicely designed vehicle, though. I think it was based on the Colorado/Canyon platform.

 

[Mango&Moose]

These companies want your tax dollars, pure and simple.

 

[Exomodo]

Hybrids have been abandoned as a mid-step at GM and other Tesla wanna-bes as not enough, but I'd only relent on my manual purchase for a hybrid that has the ability to power either the front axle or in series with the drive train and have a significant bump in performance Ala the 3.0 Aviator hybrid with over 600 lb-ft. of torque... Performance hybrids need not be a halo exclusive, democratizing efficiency and power should promote adoption rather than be accessible to only those capable of paying a premium, as has been the old way of marketing. In that regard, the Maverick is an excellent first step, but the B-Sport and Bronco also should have launched with at least one hybrid option, especially the MY22 versions. That obviously didn't happen...
Jeep has the weak 4xe, but Ford does not have parody.

 

[Scott1911]

I did some math - curious about your claim - and came out slightly ahead for EV's assuming
1kw = 3412 BTU, 80kw/200 miles
1 gallon gas = 116090 btu, 25mpg.

Didn't dig into it too far, just enough to think it is close.

I think this is leaving out efficiency of an ICE vs a combined cycle natural gas plant. I am not an environmental nut job, but I think electric wins the race.

 

[ScoobyDrew]

Bomb cyclone March 13th 2019

That was a bad ass storm. Knocked down a neighbor's 30' pine tree into my house. The whole house shook. That's me in the photo and I'm 6'4". It was a huge tree!

 

[GoTigersGoBronco]

I think we’re hitting that inflection point where the cost to own an EV is lower than owning an ICE vehicle.

In a decade, it’ll be much cheaper to own an EV than an ICE. This will be the driver of EV adoption.

 

[harpo]

What math ??

So far . . . invisible . . .

All hat . . & no cattle . .

Do your own math...

I gave you the data I used, except for the powerplant heatrate - see below. You will only learn it if you do it yourself.

I think this is leaving out efficiency of an ICE vs a combined cycle natural gas plant. I am not an environmental nut job, but I think electric wins the race.

The ICE efficiency is in the MPG.

For powerplant efficiency I used a heat rate of 10000BTU per KWH.

I was surprised the power plants were not more efficient. I was expecting the electric to be obviously more efficient, but the back of the napkin numbers say it is close.

I really only did enough to convince myself Lucchese's post is probably not valid.

@Lucchese, when will our (Utahn) Green River nuclear plant come online?

I have no doubt the grid would have difficulty meeting the electricity demand of electric cars. My montly commute alone would require about 70% of the electricity my house uses in a month.

It will be interesting to see how quickly electric cars take over. From purely a performance perspective they are tough to beat with the exception of roadtrips.

 

[Hossfire]

I think this is leaving out efficiency of an ICE vs a combined cycle natural gas plant. I am not an environmental nut job, but I think electric wins the race.

EVs win for CO2 emissions, although the breakeven is longer than people think. You still need to overcome the coal used to power Chinese mining operations. Heat pumps are another story. In the Southeast, the marginal power fuel is coal and oil during the colder days of the winter.

 

[BroncoAZ]

I’ll be adding a 2022 Lightning to our fleet at work as soon as it becomes available, and adopting more electrics as the infrastructure improves.

 

[Hossfire]

I’ll be adding a 2022 Lightning to our fleet at work as soon as it becomes available, and adopting more electrics as the infrastructure improves.

I think it makes sense for fleets to try a small number of them out before making wholesale conversions.

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