California bans sale of gas engines by 2035 [*** ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY ***]

[airishfan]

It's not magic. EV's are getting longer range because they are getting bigger batteries. Bigger batteries mean more manufacturing and transportation of rare earth minerals and plenty of other things to make the batteries. And we don't have a real recycle program for all of that precious metals and materials yet. EV's have the draw that they have because the mostly misinformed public think EV's are solving a problem, a problem that doesn't exist. Sustainability is the real issue, not climate change and carbon emissions. While fossil fuel is not going to run out anytime soon (we have centuries worth of the stuff), it won't last forever. But, neither will the materials needed to make all of the high performance batteries that would be needed to convert everything to EV's. And, those pushing the agenda are speaking out of both sides of their mouth, pushing EV's and resisting nuclear. They are closing down millions of acres of desert to multi-use, we can't drive in 85% of the areas in CA that we could drive through in 1976, and yet it's OK to fill up huge tracks of desert with solar panels. The push to EV's is based on a misinformed idealism and is not based in reality of the situation. As many have said, the grid is not there to sustain it, and the power generation capacity is not there to support. Oh, but it sure makes a lot of people feel good.

I am with you about EV , I did not say they any better for the planet then gas vehicles just that EV well be better then they are now . Are we are doing with going to EV and eliminating gas is going from one bad to a other bad .

Sponsored

 

[mpeugeot]

I would expect a gas tax in the 100% range to start, and getting worse when people still don’t make the change to an EV.

I have a Lightning due soon, I want the data needed to make proper decisions for the company fleet I manage. I really don’t see how the power grid math works out to put a single EV in every driveway, much less two.

You are extremely naive if you believe that both the cost of electricity and the taxation of electricity is not going to increase. Increased demand will drive up the price of electricity and government will seek to recover lost gasoline taxes/expand tax revenues by targeting EV's.

 

[TMP]

Wow great point....

Thank you…….you understood my point but not how the economy/inflation/energy pricing works…….how’s that possible?

 

[BroncoAZ]

You are extremely naive if you believe that both the cost of electricity and the taxation of electricity is not going to increase. Increased demand will drive up the price of electricity and government will seek to recover lost gasoline taxes/expand tax revenues by targeting EV's.

I was suggesting that people using ICE vehicles in CA after a certain point will be taxed punitively for not getting onboard with the EV edict. I am not naive to electricity costs and taxes increasing, as well as the states finding a new way to collect the lost road taxes from gas/diesel. I suspect the true cost to drive an EV will end up about the same as an ICE vehicle at $4.00 per gallon in today’s dollars. I did some calculation on my current Silverado 1500 diesel (26.5 mpg lifetime average) vs my soon to arrive Ford Lightning Pro. At today’s electricity and diesel prices and including the $7500 federal subsidy, the EV charged at home will cost $24K less to own and operate to 100K miles.

From a company point of view, EV’s are a long way from being able to replace our fleet of 140 1500, 2500, 3500, and 4500 low cab forward trucks that haul 14’ landscape or construction trailers 100-200 miles per day. There is only 400 amps of service coming into each of our two yards, so in addition to normal building loads we might be able to support 5-6 level 2 chargers per location. If they can get fast charging to the point where our crews can stop for 15 minutes every 100 miles we could make that work, but each stop would cost us an hour of labor for a 4 person crew. Many of our employees live in apartments and nobody has sorted out how to charge the company directly for home charging.

The one thing an individual can do to combat increasing energy prices is by purchasing their own home solar so they can generate what they need rather than paying the ever increasing costs. It’s not a perfect system and I realize not everyone can afford the initial cost, but I think it pencils out for me. In my case I’m looking at $54K to install a 16.8kW system with a single power wall. The expected net cost after 5 years is around $18K with net metering. Unfortunately I also need to do the roof on my house prior to the solar install, and the solar Installers here are backed up for 6-8 months. My normal power bill before owning an EV is $150-180 per month. The EV Lightning at 2.0 miles/kWh and 25000 miles per year at 14 cents per kWh is $1750 per year. $3730 per year is about what the solar would cost me net.

 

[Who iz]

We will all adapt to the reality we are forced to experience.
The simple truth is I intend to enjoy my Bronco (and all my gas guzzlers) until it is pried from my cold dead hands.

We may be just like Cuba in 50 years?

 

[goatman2]

We will all adapt to the reality we are forced to experience.
The simple truth is I intend to enjoy my Bronco (and all my gas guzzlers) until it is pried from my cold dead hands.

We may be just like Cuba in 50 years?

Yes. As far as work goes, there isn't as much to do to maintain EV's from a service and repair side (though to get them to last like an ICE car does, the battery replacement is EXPENSIVE). However, I think we'll be working on all the ICE vehicles to keep them running and running. We're not giving up our trucks and our fun cars!

 

[Jdc]

Thank you…….you understood my point but not how the economy/inflation/energy pricing works…….how’s that possible?

The difference between us is that I can actually crunch the numbers and see the BS.

 

[Tricky Dick]

I would expect a gas tax in the 100% range to start, and getting worse when people still don’t make the change to an EV.

WA already has a tax hike taking effect next year of an additional 46 cents, nearly doubling the current 49.4 cents.

 

[JJBadlands]

Here in California they already have a hard time keeping up with power consumption. Constantly telling us to power down, use less energy at peak hours, tiered price increases based on usage, brown outs, black outs etc.

How in the world will California be able to charge every vehicle and still power everything else. More taxes and energy spending over the next 100 years MIGHT do the trick. You have to start somewhere but you also have to think it through and be realistic.

I'm also not a fan of EV waste, need EV mfg in USA, and EV car fires. Both hazards are bad for the environment...more than fuel IMHO. However, I think EV do have a place and over the next 25-100 years they will be fully accepted/adopted.

 

[AZ_Liberty]

Maintenance on an EV is lower than ICE, but not by orders of magnitude. They are not "maintenance free" .

Sure, no oil changes, and brake pads last longer. But suspension and steering components wear out at the same rate, as do tires. A/C compressors fail at the same rate, etc.

And I honestly haven't had to rebuild an engine in decades, and that was only because my wife's XJ was a real POS that constantly ran hot.

We have four vehicles. Mine, hers, and each of the kids. It wouldn't be a big deal at all to swap one of those out to an EV. All of them would be crazy, I have space to charge one vehicle in my garage. (because "2-car garage" is the biggest lie since "the check is in the mail").

But... they are really, really expensive. And every time I look, the math never pencils out long term. A Mach-E is $16k more than my Bronco. A nice one with decent range is $30k more. I might break even on gas in about 12 years with the "cheap" one. Never break even on the long range one (which still can't quite go 300 miles - EPA rated at 303). If I still had a "Real" Mustang, instead of my hopefully delivered next month Bronco, then the math is even more in favor of the ICE Mustang.

 

[BroncoAZ]

Maintenance on an EV is lower than ICE, but not by orders of magnitude. They are not "maintenance free" .

Sure, no oil changes, and brake pads last longer. But suspension and steering components wear out at the same rate, as do tires. A/C compressors fail at the same rate, etc.

And I honestly haven't had to rebuild an engine in decades, and that was only because my wife's XJ was a real POS that constantly ran hot.

We have four vehicles. Mine, hers, and each of the kids. It wouldn't be a big deal at all to swap one of those out to an EV. All of them would be crazy, I have space to charge one vehicle in my garage. (because "2-car garage" is the biggest lie since "the check is in the mail").

But... they are really, really expensive. And every time I look, the math never pencils out long term. A Mach-E is $16k more than my Bronco. A nice one with decent range is $30k more. I might break even on gas in about 12 years with the "cheap" one. Never break even on the long range one (which still can't quite go 300 miles - EPA rated at 303). If I still had a "Real" Mustang, instead of my hopefully delivered next month Bronco, then the math is even more in favor of the ICE Mustang.

My Lightning Pro and my Bronco Badlands cost within $500 or each other at $47K, but the truck gets a $7500 rebate from the feds and $2500 from the state. My Bronco gets 18 mpg, so at $4 per gallon will cost $22,222 in fuel to 100K miles. The EV at 1.8 miles per kWh and $.14 per KW works out to $7777 in electricity to 100K miles. Even without the reduced maintenance and I’m ~$25K ahead on the EV at 100K miles. I would expect the EV to have lower resale than my Bronco due to how fast the technology moves, but now enough to eat up the savings. Electricity prices and taxes may eat up some savings, but likely at a similar rate to additional gas taxes for ICE’s.

 

[SS Bronco]

Great comments, love hearing everyone opinion. From my standpoint working at one of California newest hydroelectric plants (1969). The power grid will never support going full electric or even a 25% increase. No mater how much battery technology increases. It will take at least 50 years plus to update the infrastructure to handle more power demand if we can even generate it. That’s if we start now. It took 14 years to overhaul one hydroelectric plant it just takes a long time to build components. So as far as off-roading , unless technology makes huge advance in the next few years we are going to out of luck.

 

[AZ_Liberty]

My Lightning Pro and my Bronco Badlands cost within $500 or each other at $47K, but the truck gets a $7500 rebate from the feds and $2500 from the state.

Of course, one must make enough to have $7500 in tax liability. (since it's a nonrefundable credit, and you can't break it across years). My total taxes last year were around $4300. (didn't help being unemployed for a couple months)

 

[StopsForTacoTrucks]

What about gas RVs and trucks that need to tow? Sorry, but towing with an EV will suck when you're pulling over to charge every 100 miles.

Wouldn't that be classed as a medium or heavy duty vehicle, and thus exempt?

PHEVs should be an interesting off roading choice. Assuming Chyr...err, Stellantis builds the Hurricane to some level of reliability, that might be a pretty strong option with a mild hybrid setup that meets the standards. New Ford Ranger Raptor, 3.0 Turbo driving the back and some nasty electric set-up pulling the front? I mean, honestly, I'd buy that now. I've got no interest at all in a pure EV, but a PHEV that out accelerates and out drives a traditional ICE option? Take my money.

 

[BroncoAZ]

Of course, one must make enough to have $7500 in tax liability. (since it's a nonrefundable credit, and you can't break it across years). My total taxes last year were around $4300. (didn't help being unemployed for a couple months)

It looks like $7500 in tax liability is about $66K annual income for a single person or $91K for a family.

Sponsored