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California bans sale of gas engines by 2035 [*** ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ONLY ***]

Tricky Dick

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But suspension and steering components wear out at the same rate, as do tires.
That's a rabbit hole. The extra weight of EVs make them go through tires more quickly. Most (if not all?) EVs have special tires too. You can use any tire, but you give up some efficiency. I just talked to a Rivian owner today and got a nice tour of his truck. It's a cool machine. He put mud terrains (didn't go larger) on it and lost about 10% of his range.
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XmasLightsBronco

XmasLightsBronco

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Wouldn't that be classed as a medium or heavy duty vehicle, and thus exempt?

PHEVs should be an interesting off roading choice. Assuming Chyr...err, Stellantis builds the Hurricane to some level of reliability, that might be a pretty strong option with a mild hybrid setup that meets the standards. New Ford Ranger Raptor, 3.0 Turbo driving the back and some nasty electric set-up pulling the front? I mean, honestly, I'd buy that now. I've got no interest at all in a pure EV, but a PHEV that out accelerates and out drives a traditional ICE option? Take my money.
The medium/heavy duty exclusions or postponements only apply to diesel engines if memory serves me correct. All non-diesel engines would be subject to the ban. RVs are already having a "tough go of it" in CA because CA has also banned small gas engines. (lawn equipment, generators, etc) So in a few years all new RVs sold in CA will have to be without a gas generator.

I agree, a hybrid solution would be great. If the Bronco got the 3.0L twin turbo PHEV that is in the European Explorer, that would be fantastic. The added weight of the battery might be problematic for suspension upgrades, but we probably wouldn't have to reinforce the bottom with extra skids because Ford would fortify the hell out of that battery.
 

TenSeven

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"No Politics" on a subject like this? Hilarious.

To those talking about a $7500 tax rebate, have you factored in the $6-8k price increase recently announced by Ford and GM on their EVs? That was convenient timing.

Also, there are tight restrictions on that tax rebate. If I recall, one of the restrictions was the battery has to made in the USA and we don't make a whole lot of batteries here.
 
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XmasLightsBronco

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"No Politics" on a subject like this? Hilarious.
It's pretty straightforward. I wanted a discussion on the pathway forward and the future implications of the ban, not a bifurcated rabbit hole of the primary forces driving the ban. (And as a several year lurker and first poster, I didn't want to be reprimanded by an admin for stoking political tensions.)
 

AZ_Liberty

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To those talking about a $7500 tax rebate, have you factored in the $6-8k price increase recently announced by Ford and GM on their EVs? That was convenient timing.
Inflation. Ford didn't get a new tax credit. Ford vehicles already qualified for a 7500 tax credit (again if you make enough). Also, the low end Mach-E only went up $3000 because Ford plans to use cheaper, lower performance LiFPO batteries on the short range version next year.

GM and Tesla are the only two companies that actually gained an advantage. They ran out of the old credits.

Bronco went up $2k mid year, probably another $2400 or so for MY23. Real inflation is running close to 18%
 

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tax liability is about $66K annual income for a single person or $91K for a fa
Depends how much is direct income and how much is capital gains (and how much is long term). And how many kids one has 16 and under.

We paid about $4600 on an Income of $106k, but 25 of the was cap gains.
 

BroncoAZ

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"No Politics" on a subject like this? Hilarious.

To those talking about a $7500 tax rebate, have you factored in the $6-8k price increase recently announced by Ford and GM on their EVs? That was convenient timing.

Also, there are tight restrictions on that tax rebate. If I recall, one of the restrictions was the battery has to made in the USA and we don't make a whole lot of batteries here.
GM is decreasing the MSRP on the Bolt EV for 2023. Combine that with the rebate if their batteries qualify and you’ve got a cheap commuter car. I test drove one this summer, it was decent to drive. There is the stipulation of the batteries being sourced and made in the “US or it’s free trade partners”, I suspect the OEM’s will figure it out.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/2023-chevy-bolt-ev-euv-get-dramatic-price-cuts/

Depends how much is direct income and how much is capital gains (and how much is long term). And how many kids one has 16 and under.

We paid about $4600 on an Income of $106k, but 25 of the was cap gains.
On an income of about double that we (DINK) paid well over $30K for 2021, no problem claiming the credit on my end.
 
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Razorbak86

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You can’t treat technology as a constant when projecting future supply and demand, because battery efficiency and power infrastructure technology will continue to improve over the next 13 years, and those factors will continue to alter the supply and demand equation, so the amount of power infrastructure (supply) required to support BEV vehicles (demand) in 2035 will be different than what you see today.
FYI, the following news reports just posted this morning...

++++++++

Leading Tesla Supplier Claims Landmark Battery Density: Report
  • Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) supplier Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Limited worked on new battery materials that can improve energy density by 10% - 20% compared to iron phosphate batteries, Reuters reports citing CATL Chair.
  • The new material technology, M3P, can enable an electric vehicle to run 700 km (430 miles) per charge combined with CATL's next generation of battery pack technology, Zeng Yuqun said at Beijing's World New Energy Vehicle Congress.
  • The new materials will also lower the costs compared to nickel and cobalt-based batteries increasing its edge over LG Energy Solution and BYD Co, Ltd (OTC:BYDDY).
Elon Musk Said I Think by 2030 Almost Half of All Cars Made Will Be Electric
Reuters, 4:52 AM ET 8/29/2022

Musk Said He Thinks by 2035 Some 80% of New Cars Made Will Be Electric
Reuters, 4:55 AM ET 8/29/2022

++++++++

Whether you believe Musk or not, many people have gone broke betting against the man by selling short TSLA stock.
 

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Silly Honda hasn't been following the internet projections of the lithium supply.

TOKYO—Honda Motor Co. HMC 1.44%▲ and LG Energy Solution Ltd. 373220 -1.29%▼ said Monday they plan to build a $4.4 billion electric-vehicle battery factory in the U.S., the latest tie-up between auto makers and battery suppliers seeking to expand capacity by sharing upfront costs.

The companies said they plan to begin construction of the factory early next year and start mass production by the end of 2025. The factory is planned for Ohio,

https://www.wsj.com/articles/honda-...dollar-ev-battery-factory-in-ohio-11661758389
 

JohnnyBronco

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The medium/heavy duty exclusions or postponements only apply to diesel engines if memory serves me correct. All non-diesel engines would be subject to the ban. RVs are already having a "tough go of it" in CA because CA has also banned small gas engines. (lawn equipment, generators, etc) So in a few years all new RVs sold in CA will have to be without a gas generator.

I agree, a hybrid solution would be great. If the Bronco got the 3.0L twin turbo PHEV that is in the European Explorer, that would be fantastic. The added weight of the battery might be problematic for suspension upgrades, but we probably wouldn't have to reinforce the bottom with extra skids because Ford would fortify the hell out of that battery.
I would expect, if it isn't already included that CA ban on ICE vehicles will extend to home standby generators.

Eventually the CA ban will extend to off road vehicles, possibly before heavy duty OTR semis and trains.
There are some interesting all electric farm tractors already and in the works but in a normal situation a farm tractor of around 50 hp can run on its tank of diesel for more than a full day of field work, even 2 or 3. An electric tractor has yet to be prototypes that can go even one 8 hour shift let alone the usual 12 hour farm day.

Solutions?

Allow sale of purely biodiesel ICE.
Hydrogen fuel cells.
Sadly the above and all other options include consumption of "fossil" fuels for either power generation or component construction.

The elephant in the room nobody talks about is container ships sitting in dock with engines running. I would have to hunt gor the article and numbers from several years ago but plugging ships into shore power would reduce emissions in cities by a large enough number to continue driving ICE cars on the road.

And referring back to biodiesel ypu are already familiar with biogas, the 10-85% component of pump gas. Purely biomass sourced liquid fuel should be a consideration. We already tap methane from the bottom of landfills, we can also convert human waste (#2) into biofuel. Rather than releasing treated wastewater, conversion into fuel might be a better option.

Health wise, as an overweight populace, we would be better off if CA banned the sale of fried food. Less weight to transport = lighter vehicles
 

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sda3

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I saw this yesterday as well and it made me chuckle. They've had this same brown out problem for the last 20 years or more. It is only going to get worse.
 

dan79

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how do u charge electric cars? sun shine and wind don't do it already rolling brown outs in California
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