skhubbard93

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Here's how well Ford scheduled builds according to reservation date during the 4th quarter of 2021. Be aware that this is not a statistically representative sample of the year, because:
  1. This was after the MIC 2.0 fix so hardtop %s were maxed out.
  2. This is made up of stalwarts who wanted a '21 even if that meant no hard top, no painted top, etc.
  3. This was the last chance for FEs.
  4. This was the last chance for AMB and Rapid Red.
The dates across the top represent the weeks to which builds were scheduled as-of 10/4. Those dates did shift a bit over the course of the subsequent 3 months as you can see on other tabs.
The dates down the left are grouped by day (1st week), then by week (thru October 2020), then by month. As you can see, there is a recognizable trend, but there is also a lot of scatter, with March reservations being scheduled in September (for example).

And keep in mind: in 2022, Ford changed the rules to increase the influence of allocations on scheduling.



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Andy303

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The production graph looks good to me. Based on the Ford Bronco VIN Decoder posted elsewhere the Sequential Vehicle Identifier numbers start at A19980 and will run to C99999. That means 80,019 Broncos would have a VIN starting with "A".

I received a VIN ending in B03xxx which would mean that my Bronco is in the 83,000 to 84,000 built range. I was told it will go into production the week of March 21, which is pretty close to what is shown in the graphic. My reservation date was 10/2/2020. My order is for a 2 door, 2.3L, mid-package, rear locker, tow.
 

Lil Red Broncette

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so based on this data. If you reserved yours within the first 24 hours and HAVENT gotten yours yet, baring any more hiccups, you SHOULD get it by April? Maybe later. Again guestimations. Then if you reserved it in the first week, you should see it by July. Then within the first 30 days you should see it by September. Then if you have an order AT ALL (including if you made it today) you should see it by the end of the year. (By which point there SHOULD be about 175,000 built)
Do your estimations about when us with first day/week reservations "should" get it factor in all the newer orders that keep getting picked up ahead of us? Or is it based solely on when production totals are large enough to cover those initial order numbers? It seems new orders getting picked up compared to those with long reservations is a significant portion of the builds.
 

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Arrowbear Rider

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People have been able to "cheat" and jump the line, BUT maybe THEY didn't "cheat," but the dealer DID! That's why they already had that open order that's going to be built in just "3 months" or so.


Knowing that dealerships had family, friends and employee make reservations, it doesn't surprise me that someone could just walk in and get a build date from a dealer before any of us, that doesn't mean the buyer jumped the line, that just means the dealership cheated in some way to have that reservation with an up coming build date; and the new buyer has no idea they are using a reservation made on day one by the dealer so they think they just walk in and jumped the line and are posting as such.

Some of the above that were able to walk in and order and get built in just 3 months got an order that the dealer reserved on day one and remember the dealer controls the priority codes too; very simple to match to the right buyer (and ADM or VIP) at the right time.

What the graph does point out is the obvious math that if 70,000 orders were made on day one that at approximately 10,000 units per month it will take at least 7 months just to get through day one reservations, and that's before commodities issues and allocations. Also, add in mannequins pre-production & Off Roadeo units and etc and you need to add a couple of more months which puts your at April.

Ford hasn't produce enough units to have had thousands jump the line, so that's not why we are waiting so long; it's a small number of cheaters that adds a couple of weeks at best. I write this not single out someone for being upset about reading about people jumping the line while waiting so long, but to hopefully put a little relief in that while people cheat to jump the line (again mostly the dealers) that you're waiting for 8 months because it takes 8 months to get to number 55,555 in production out of 70,000 day one reservations.

My experience in this matter is as a Flooring Auditor (I audited dealers for the banks), so this is really about the math and not being apologetic about Ford's mistakes regarding the whole reservation system.

That's a book in it's self and could take a semester to examine thoroughly.
 

Waiting for 4th Bronco

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I placed a non-reservation order December 1st. One week later I deleted the hard top and got scheduled the next day for a build week of Jan 31st. Today the tracker is showing its in production and I got the window sticker! Short of any significant delays I should have my Bronco within 3 months of order. Its a non sasquatch Base so that probably helped. I added a few options, HD bumper, brush guard, aux switches.
If you're getting a 2dr, I'm going to puke. Never mind, I see you deleted hard top = 4dr.
 
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Chaos

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As stated at the bottom now. (Edited)
Broncos are built AS CLOSE TO reservation order as possible, but theres 2 major factors

1 dealer allocation - Some dealers get their broncos faster than others.
So if you know your order is at a larger dealer move your timeline up, smaller move back.

2 part supply issue - some items are taking longer to fill, Towing packages, hard tops, manual trans, 2.7L, 2 door, and higher trims requiring more chips etc.
Yes basically correct but not the picture 100%. Regionality is a factor as well.
Regionality is best explain like this; Larger city areas/regions in Texas and California ordered the most broncos, economically depressed areas in the east an midwest ordered the least, but they are not just sending all the builds to these areas with the highest volume of orders, (similar to allocation rules/state franchise laws that changed all the group buys). Ford is attempting to send vehicle out, even by trim in an equitable manner across the nation. Whether truly equitable is completely subjective.

There may be other factors as well, but these are the 4 primary ones (reservation/order timestamp; allocations, parts availability and regionality) that Ford has mentioned. Unfortunately we do not know how the algorithm weighs these factors. It can be assumed the black box spits out a list of builds, then these are check by people (previewing phase), if all checks out, the build gets scheduled. That date may change, during clean up or other times. It may get pushed due to other orders that got pushed or they didn't meet the build volume. It may get pushed because of parts projected to be available are now not. It may get pushed because someone with an earlier reservation jumped past you when they made an order change or when they finally actually submitted an order or buildable order. Many early reservationist sat 2021 out by either 99 their order or not converting at all. The majority of these changed or did initial orders when the 2022 banks opened up in October, but many are still trickling in.

I can't say it is across the board, but a few dealers I have spoke with have said Ford sends them a spreadsheet regularly with their orders organized by timestamp. This is what they use to say you are #1 or #50 or #80 to 200..... You can be #1 or 2 or 3 but that does not mean you will be the 1st to get a build, it is just time stamp. Many people have this great fear that a dealers allocation could be all taken by people ordering easy to build units, and yes, that is seemingly possible and very plausible, especially for a small volume dealer that all the sudden gets flooded with orders. Is it equitable or fair? That is subjective, but I am on the not fair side......
 

Mustang GTA

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I ordered up on the third day. I have an actual build date of February 5th.
It's just a base 2 door with a steel bumper. Can't imagine why it took forever to get it rolling.
But at least there is light at the end of the tunnel now.
 
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I ordered up on the third day. I have an actual build date of February 5th.
It's just a base 2 door with a steel bumper. Can't imagine why it took forever to get it rolling.
But at least there is light at the end of the tunnel now.
Third day means your were likely order #80,000+
 

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ArrickSports

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This may help graphically...tell me if I am using your numbers correctly?
Screen Shot 2022-01-27 at 1.55.11 PM.png

I love graphs and stuff, curse of being an engineer I guess. The whole thing is nebulous but the one thing is that the graphs are looking at reservations not actual orders. (125k per Ford Authority as of 12/08/21). So, the end of the graph (in a purely hypothetical circumstance where things make sense) is 125k if you had your order in around 12/08 or July - August. Probably would bump that back a month to be same but still, another hypothetical solution.
 

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View attachment 254973

this is just for a rough time line of how long your vehicle MAY take.
You may be right about a gross catch up by year end, barring further global disruptions. I hope you are; as my order delivery probably falls somewhere in Q4. Otherwise, as others point out, the assumptions underlying your well-intentioned effort are not complete.
 

csteph01

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Just having the total monthly build volumes tracked somewhere is really helpful, and thanks for putting this together.
 
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FirstOnRaceDay

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Just having the total monthly build volumes tracked somewhere is really helpful, and thanks for putting this together.
Absolutely. And it will be updated monthly. As well as updated projections.
 

 
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