Ford

[Ranger6G]

stock is tanking

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[Sgt Beavis]

Bronco Sport was a dumb idea. Not needed and is dumbing down the whole 6G Bronco release.

No, it isn't. Not even close. It's a hit for Ford when they really do need it.

 

[Mickey21]

So you’re saying Ford should have predicted the Renesas fire and lead times doubling or tripling at the same time that global semiconductor demand was ramping back up? Which predictive model is that which takes those types of events into consideration, and gets the timing exactly right without committing to huge component purchases 9-12 months ago during the deepest depths of the pandemic? Good luck selling those purchase commitments to the Ford execs (or any execs) last year.

No, I am saying (and quite frankly even the article regarding the fire) that though fab plant outages play parts in disruptions, they won't tank a multi billion dollar company with millions of employees to rely on when chip logistics plans are done well. Will there be shortages yes, not saying that at all, but the OP concludes 50% shortages which just isnt the case unless you take the highly dramatic editorializing his thread title started with. Reading fundamentals, even the articles call out Ford's conclusion in their report, the factory saying what they supply, and even the statement regarding shortages to Q2 productions, which is just one quarter, when Q1 they were only down 17%.

We would also have to hear and yet to be said by anyone officially what exact impact this will have on the Bronco specifically. Mostly speculation so far, but IF it does have a 50% impact to this product line, yeah, they didnt plan it well enough. Almost no one with this much to risk lays it all down on one fab plant and no backup plans that it could basically literally destroy the company, and if they are, well, you can't say that isnt stupid can you. There are so many chip production plants out there that this can be worked in over time. If they miss their mark by 50% across ALL models and all production because of one single fab fire, that is on them truly, yes. Predictive of fires or not, you dont lump everything you need from one single supplying building. That is just logistics literal 101.

 

[L8apex]

Yeah... Ford deciding to pull the carpet out from under the UAW to take production from Ohio to Mexico seems like a great American company.

Are you talking about the Bronco Sport? There’s no Ford Assembly plant in Ohio that could come close to handling the volume for the Sport.

Please name which factory you’d prefer to see the Sport made at. I don’t see how the UAW lost out unless you’re expecting Ford to build a whole new factory for an entry level car with high development cost and eat into the little profit margin that currently exists.

 

[Burnsy949]

No, I am saying (and quite frankly even the article regarding the fire) that though fab plant outages play parts in disruptions, they won't tank a multi billion dollar company with millions of employees to rely on when chip logistics plans are done well. Will there be shortages yes, not saying that at all, but the OP concludes 50% shortages which just isnt the case unless you take the highly dramatic editorializing his thread title started with. Reading fundamentals, even the articles call out Ford's conclusion in their report, the factory saying what they supply, and even the statement regarding shortages to Q2 productions, which is just one quarter, when Q1 they were only down 17%.

We would also have to hear and yet to be said by anyone officially what exact impact this will have on the Bronco specifically. Mostly speculation so far, but IF it does have a 50% impact to this product line, yeah, they didnt plan it well enough. Almost no one with this much to risk lays it all down on one fab plant and no backup plans that it could basically literally destroy the company, and if they are, well, you can't say that isnt stupid can you. There are so many chip production plants out there that this can be worked in over time. If they miss their mark by 50% across ALL models and all production because of one single fab fire, that is on them truly, yes. Predictive of fires or not, you dont lump everything you need from one single supplying building. That is just logistics literal 101.

Solid points above, and I don’t think anyone would say that single source purchasing and poor business continuity plans are good policy, but you seem to be suggesting that that GLOBAL demand isn’t vastly outstripping GLOBAL supply. It isn’t just Ford that is feeling the impacts. In fact, it’s 90% of industries globally that are negatively affected right now. It isn’t just Ford in the auto market either, and frankly it isn’t even just semiconductors that are capacity constrained either. Check out industrial resin supply right now, for example.

Hey, if you and your clients are in the 10% of industries that aren’t affected, good for you. I hope it stays that way. I don’t work for Ford or have any sort of special affinity for them. I’ve only owned one Ford in my life and that was my 1973 Bronco I bought used in the 90s and later sold. And at my company (in a totally different industry) I’m usually the one pointing the finger at supply chain being too single threaded and not having a good enough business continuity plan. I‘m in Sales and I am actively responsible for sales forecasting of $40 - $50 million of finished products each year that include many electrical components. When my company’s supply chain gets it wrong, I suffer and my salespeople directly suffer. I just think it’s wrong and misleading to say Ford (or any other company) that didn’t get it exactly right this year is stupid or irresponsible.

I would even go so far as to say that the only companies or industries that rely heavily on semiconductors that aren’t in bad supply shape right now (or that soon will be) could just as easily have been grossly oversupplied if demand didn’t snap back as much as it did, and if a plant that made 50% or automotive chips didn’t burn down this year extending lead times dramatically. Based on what I’m seeing in my industry, I was wondering when we were going to get this type of announcement from Ford, because I am waiting for my 2022 Bronco. Musk claims Tesla isn’t affected, but he’s saying they had to pivot to new chips and revising firmware, which Is not the same as perfect forecasting. (In other words, they were affected and just pivoted to other chips).

 

[broadicustomworks]

Solid points above, and I don’t think anyone would say that single source purchasing and poor business continuity plans are good policy, but you seem to be suggesting that that GLOBAL demand isn’t vastly outstripping GLOBAL supply. It isn’t just Ford that is feeling the impacts. In fact, it’s 90% of industries globally that are negatively affected right now. It isn’t just Ford in the auto market either, and frankly it isn’t even just semiconductors that are capacity constrained either. Check out industrial resin supply right now, for example.

Hey, if you and your clients are in the 10% of industries that aren’t affected, good for you. I hope it stays that way. I don’t work for Ford or have any sort of special affinity for them. I’ve only owned one Ford in my life and that was my 1973 Bronco I bought used in the 90s and later sold. And at my company (in a totally different industry) I’m usually the one pointing the finger at supply chain being two single threaded and not having a good enough business continuity plan. I‘m in Sales and I am actively responsible for sales forecasting of $40 - $50 million of finished products each year that include many electrical components. When my company’s supply chain gets it wrong, I suffer and my salespeople directly suffer. I just think it’s wrong and misleading to say Ford (or any other company) that didn’t get it exactly right this year is stupid or irresponsible. Tesla cited

I would even go so far as to say that the only companies or industries that rely heavily on semiconductors that aren’t in bad supply shape right now (or that soon will be) could just as easily have been grossly oversupplied if demand didn’t snap back as much as it did, and if a plant that made 50% or automotive chips didn’t burn down this year extending lead times dramatically. Based on what I’m seeing in my industry, I was wondering when we were going to get this type of announcement like this from Ford, because I am waiting for my 2022 Bronco. Musk claims Tesla isn’t affected, but he’s saying they had to pivot to new chips and revising firmware, which Is not the same as having bought enough of the same chips they were buying. (In other words, they were affected and just pivoted to other chips).

Just wait until everyone gets the official steel memo.
I need 2300 gross tons of it for May production and have only been guaranteed 350 tons. That shoe has yet to fall for most people and most manufacturers... but be prepared for "the sky is falling" once it does become apparent.

 

[Mickey21]

Solid points above, and I don’t think anyone would say that single source purchasing and poor business continuity plans are good policy, but you seem to be suggesting that that GLOBAL demand isn’t vastly outstripping GLOBAL supply. It isn’t just Ford that is feeling the impacts. In fact, it’s 90% of industries globally that are negatively affected right now. It isn’t just Ford in the auto market either, and frankly it isn’t even just semiconductors that are capacity constrained either. Check out industrial resin supply right now, for example.

Hey, if you and your clients are in the 10% of industries that aren’t affected, good for you. I hope it stays that way. I don’t work for Ford or have any sort of special affinity for them. I’ve only owned one Ford in my life and that was my 1973 Bronco I bought used in the 90s and later sold. And at my company (in a totally different industry) I’m usually the one pointing the finger at supply chain being two single threaded and not having a good enough business continuity plan. I‘m in Sales and I am actively responsible for sales forecasting of $40 - $50 million of finished products each year that include many electrical components. When my company’s supply chain gets it wrong, I suffer and my salespeople directly suffer. I just think it’s wrong and misleading to say Ford (or any other company) that didn’t get it exactly right this year is stupid or irresponsible.

I would even go so far as to say that the only companies or industries that rely heavily on semiconductors that aren’t in bad supply shape right now (or that soon will be) could just as easily have been grossly oversupplied if demand didn’t snap back as much as it did, and if a plant that made 50% or automotive chips didn’t burn down this year extending lead times dramatically. Based on what I’m seeing in my industry, I was wondering when we were going to get this type of announcement from Ford, because I am waiting for my 2022 Bronco. Musk claims Tesla isn’t affected, but he’s saying they had to pivot to new chips and revising firmware, which Is not the same as perfect forecasting. (In other words, they were affected and just pivoted to other chips).

Mostly not arguing any of that really. Only that this chip shortage is being over dramatized to cover other systemic issues in the their supply systems. Hey, I get it, a pandemic, knee jerk reactions, poor planning, these are all things I will concede impact a global economy and businesses that produce products, hell even the shipping channel disruption will play havoc on supply chain issues for potentially another year or so. It ALL matters yes. But most companies impacted are choosing to oversimplify their reasons that don't always line up with reality like "chip shortages". But I also guess, it is in the news so it is easy to just say that to people that may not exercise great reasoning skills.

I don't even understand the logic. Why can't they just be transparent and truly say, sorry, our bad, due to economic reasons, and customer shrinkage in demand, we reduced expected volumes of production and are now having to work that back based on new forecast models that show an increase which takes time to stabilize that production queue."? I mean I don't think it really is all that hard to be transparent on the nature. Honesty and transparency among corporations is kind of a dying art form.

Pivoting, yeah, I know that is a real thing, agreed. And if they are going to do it, sure, be transparent about that too. I have said many times over this Bronco release. I don't mind waiting, but I would appreciate transparency and respect it much more over just manipulation handling of the subject.

 

[XirallicBolts]

[Sad trombone noises]

Once my transfer clears, I'm buying more. It'll come back eventually. The longer my Bronco gets delayed, the more time I have for it to recover.

At this rate, I'll even qualify for reduced taxes if it pushes past 12 months.

 

[Tonka Bronka]

No, it isn't. Not even close. It's a hit for Ford when they really do need it.

Don’t need two Broncos. Call it something else. What, all the good names taken? They pay marketing and advertising big money to do what, use the same name twice?

 

[Tonka Bronka]

Not really...it'll be a money maker with more sales that the full size Bronco (my prediction). Bronco Sport money helped the business case for the real Bronco. Plus back in the day, there was the Bronco II.

Bronco II was a turd bucket.

 

[Carolina Jim]

If you thought we Bronco buyers were the only ones who have trouble figuring out Ford's communications...you'd be wrong. They reported Q1:21 earnings today & are getting hammered.

CNBC excerpt: "At least three analysts described Ford’s outlook for the year, which it reaffirmed Wednesday, as confusing or puzzling.

“While Ford’s 1Q:21 results were impressive, the company somewhat confusingly … communicated its 2021 financial outlook, which we believe is creating some investor concern,” BofA Global Research analyst John Murphy said in a note. RBC Capital’s Joseph Spak reiterated those comments, adding the guidance was “confusing” and it’s a “bit unclear” whether the depth of problems of the chip shortage is exclusive to Ford. Barclays analyst Brian Johnson described Ford’s operational turnaround being “dented” by its “puzzling” guidance."

 

[MorgansRun]

If you thought we Bronco buyers were the only ones who have trouble figuring out Ford's communications...you'd be wrong. They reported Q1:21 earnings today & are getting hammered.

CNBC excerpt: "At least three analysts described Ford’s outlook for the year, which it reaffirmed Wednesday, as confusing or puzzling.

“While Ford’s 1Q:21 results were impressive, the company somewhat confusingly … communicated its 2021 financial outlook, which we believe is creating some investor concern,” BofA Global Research analyst John Murphy said in a note. RBC Capital’s Joseph Spak reiterated those comments, adding the guidance was “confusing” and it’s a “bit unclear” whether the depth of problems of the chip shortage is exclusive to Ford. Barclays analyst Brian Johnson described Ford’s operational turnaround being “dented” by its “puzzling” guidance."

Maybe that was the plan all along.

 

[Carolina Jim]

Maybe that was the plan all along.

damn expensive plan

 

[MorgansRun]

damn expensive plan

The Wall Street Journal is confused too. Here's an excerpt since it's behind a paywall:

The confusing thing is that Ford produced 17% fewer vehicles than planned in the first quarter and yet generated far more profit than the company expected. Against a backdrop of strong consumer demand, an undersupply of vehicles as a result of last year’s pandemic-related shutdowns and this year’s chip-related ones is pushing up prices across the industry. Ford made 7% more automotive revenue than in the first quarter of last year by selling 6% fewer vehicles. Skyrocketing used-car prices also boosted its finance arm.


The message from the company Wednesday was that these conditions can’t last. It is assuming automotive operating margins, which reached 12.8% in North America in the quarter, will normalize as purchase incentives creep back up and rising commodity prices feed into raw-material bills. It also expects used vehicle inflation to moderate.

 

[Carolina Jim]

The Wall Street Journal is confused too.

As you may know, there's no where to hide on these quarterly calls...if your message isn't totally clear and organized, you come across like a street hood under FBI interrogation.

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