Ford

[Taco_Sexual]

Not entirely sure why someone would want to buy Ford stock but I suppose it makes sense if you just want to own it to say you have a stake in the company or you're buying such a high volume that if it moves up to $20 you can sell and make a healthy profit. At $0.15/dividend you can find much more attractive options out there. Unless you have the capital buy a ton, I would stick to funds - at least that's what I do.

I know car companies are doing quite well right now b/c of the chip shortage creating low supply/high-demand so people are willing to pay MSRP or more; but eventually supply will run decrease to the point that high prices are outweighed by a decrease in the volume of sales. At $12.50/share I'd rather put my money into a faco dinner with margaritas.

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[ZackDanger]

Side question, since I have only been here a few weeks: Why did that guy's "I'm Out" thread earlier today get locked so quickly, and locked at all?

Those things turn sour reallllllly fast, a lot of “dont let the door hit you” posts… though I too was surprised how fast it got a lock.

Could have been because it took a turn and the offending posts got trimmed, or perhaps the OP requested the lock….

But either way, no good ever comes from them. The posters are usually being dramatic, and even if they aren’t, the rest of the forum decides they are and turn on them.

 

[ZackDanger]

Oh. I was curious because the guy wasn't ranting or upset about delays or stuff. He was cordial and said he saw one in person and got inside and it didn't meet his size needs.

Yeah, I agree. That’s what makes me think either some offending posts got deleted and/or the OP requested a Moderator lock it.

 

[Desert_6G]

How I see this as a benifit for me. Since my build is already schedule; Ford has already aquired the components for my build. So it won't effect that. But it will effect new vehicle inventory so dealers won't have as much on hand vehicles as usual which means dealing will be more dificult. So that will lead more people to buy used; which in turn increase the demand for used vehicles. And since I'll be selling my current truck I expect its value to hold strong. I already seen the private value estimate for my truck increase over the past 6 months and I expect it to continue throughout summer. So good news for those looking to sell.

 

[Boxer4]

Not entirely sure why someone would want to buy Ford stock but I suppose it makes sense if you just want to own it to say you have a stake in the company or you're buying such a high volume that if it moves up to $20 you can sell and make a healthy profit. At $0.15/dividend you can find much more attractive options out there. Unless you have the capital buy a ton, I would stick to funds - at least that's what I do.

I know car companies are doing quite well right now b/c of the chip shortage creating low supply/high-demand so people are willing to pay MSRP or more; but eventually supply will run decrease to the point that high prices are outweighed by a decrease in the volume of sales. At $12.50/share I'd rather put my money into a faco dinner with margaritas.

While not available on the MY21 Bronco, owning 100 shares of Ford stock for 6 months gets you the X-Plan. That would have cost only $ 618 the day after the Bronco reveal. Maybe MY22 X-Plan ?

 

[BroncoBuckaroo]

Ford announced it expects to lose about 50% of Q2 production. The semiconductor shortage the issue.

Luckily the Bronco uses A different chip set.

here are the affected models F150, Explorer and Lincoln Aviator SUVs, Ford Mustang and Transit van

 

[604Bronco]

Hopefully people read this, get impatient, and cancel their orders. That would help us other folks move up the line (in theory).

 

[Bdockins]

I've resolved to be patient enough, with a Day 1 reservation, to wait until end of October. After that, it's pretty silly it's taking this long.

Patiently waiting until after the full-diaper VIPs and dealer employees get their priority builds. Fine. It's like a new restaurant's soft opening in which they only invite VIPs and tastemakers. Also patiently waiting until after the First Edition luxury-needers get their builds. After that, how about a regular fella who made an early reservation for a Base catches a break? Perhaps I am "entitled."

Damn strait.
In fact if I don’t have a solid date next month I’m shopping around. And I have been die hard.

 

[Chief1301]

If stock tanks I'm buying in. One of Americas last great companies.

I bought 150 shares of Ford Stock when it was about $6.70 a share last September. Today's closing price was $12.42 a share. . I should of bought more.

 

[Razorbak86]

"Semi-Conductor chip shortage", LOL

Their "shortage" is self-inflicted, that is what happens when you don't order enough supply. If they shorted their order for chips needed to make Bronco's that is still a short sight on their side. Estimated interest and pre-orders was pretty high. Meh, it arrives when it arrives.

There is some important context here that is being overlooked.

Just last month -- on March 19, 2021 at 2:47 am, to be exact -- long after the worldwide semiconductor supply chain was disrupted by the COVID pandemic, several major automotive manufacturers (including Ford) were deeply impacted by a fire at the Naka wafer fabrication factory owned by Renesas Electronics Corporation in Hitachinaka, Japan.

The fire occurred on the first floor of the N3 Building and destroyed a significant portion of the huge facility, including the entire 300mm (12 inch) wafer fabrication line. Plating equipment on the production line caught fire, due to a surge in current, burning 600 square meters, or around 5 percent, of the building's clean room area. The entire building was closed down to allow for cleaning and reconstruction, and it is not expected to return to full production until July.

This is what the Naka plant looked like before the fire:

And this is what it looked like after the fire:

Thankfully, there was no loss of life from the fire, but the commercial impact was devastating. The Naka plant makes about 30% of the global chip supply for the automotive sector, and the fire caused huge problems for the auto makers which were already grappling with the global chip shortage following the pandemic. Ford really got hurt by the Naka plant fire. Although some of its chip supply from that plant is dual source, much of it is single source.

It seems a bit unfair to expect Ford and other auto makers to anticipate the impact on a just-in-time (JIT) inventory system from: (1) a 100-year pandemic that shut the global economy down for the better part of a year, and (2) a fire at a supplier plant causing the plant to go offline for four months after the economy starts ramping back up.

Long story short, Ford now expects to lose about 50% of its planned Q2 production (up from 17%, or 200,000 units, in Q1), largely because of the additional impact of the fire, but Q2 is expected to be the trough of the issue. Although the Naka plant will resume full production by the end of Q2, the broader global chip shortage for all automotive manufacturers may not be fully resolved until 2022, so Ford is expecting to lose 10% of planned production in the second half of this year.

 

[Chief1301]

Who cares, Bronco production wont really start until Q3.

Not if they don't get enough chips.

 

[Swedishgirl68]

Thanks to this forum I found out about this local Bronco showing in Tacoma. The dealership I ordered mine from had no idea about it. So thank you all for letting me know.

I was very impressed. It's a beautiful truck. I didn't order the Cactus Gray but it looks so cool.

 

[Mickey21]

There is some important context here that is being overlooked.

Just last month -- on March 19, 2021 at 2:47 am, to be exact -- long after the worldwide semiconductor supply chain was disrupted by the COVID pandemic, several major automotive manufacturers (including Ford) were deeply impacted by a fire at the Naka wafer fabrication factory owned by Renesas Electronics in Hitachinaka, Japan.

The fire occurred on the first floor of the N3 Building and destroyed a significant portion of the huge facility, including the entire 300mm (12 inch) wafer fabrication line. Plating equipment on the production line caught fire, due to a surge in current, burning 600 square meters, or around 5 percent, of the building's clean room area. The entire building was closed down to allow for cleaning and reconstruction, and it is not expected to return to full production until July.

This is what the Naka plant looked like before the fire:

And this is what it looked like after the fire:

Thankfully, there was no loss of life from the fire, but the commercial impact was devastating. The Naka plant makes about 30% of the global chip supply for the automotive sector, and the fire caused huge problems for the auto makers which were already grappling with the global chip shortage following the pandemic. Ford really got hurt by the Naka plant fire. Although some of its chip supply from that plant is dual source, much of it is single source.

It seems a bit unfair to expect Ford and other auto makers to anticipate the impact on a just-in-time (JIT) inventory system from: (1) a 100-year pandemic that shut the global economy down for the better part of a year, and (2) a chip supplier plant burning down shortly thereafter and going offline for four months after the economy starts ramping back up.

Long story short, Ford now expects to lose about 50% of its planned Q2 production (up from 17%, or 200,000 units, in Q1), largely because of the additional impact of the fire, but Q2 is expected to be the trough of the issue. Although the Naka plant will resume full production by the end of Q2, the broader global chip shortage for all automotive manufacturers may not be fully resolved until 2022, so Ford is expecting to lose 10% of planned production in the second half of this year.

I'm aware of the fire and impact on the chip making market, I am a computer electronics engineer for over 35 years and am in this sector. Chip orders are typically placed around 9 months out from production to maintain the average flow. Ford along with other manufacturer's shorted this order due to reductions in demand during the pandemic and as is any chip order tends to reflect 6 months to a year from any reactive forces in the market due to this. Trust me, I am in the same industry with chip production and deliveries and know this very well, it is my job to know. You know who is largely impacted, the majority of manufacturers that reduced their orders.

Now am I placing blame only on them, clearly no, but don't tell me that those out there not affected because they largely kept their orders the same are being hurt by this "shortage". Is there an impact by something like that fire, yes, some, but 50%, yeah, no, that takes more than this. Why isnt Apple, Google, Dell, Intel, nVidia (they sold more chips than ever, it is just demand is incredibly higher), HPE (maybe not as good as an example with them, they are hurting due to lost market share), and the many other large chip relevant manufacturers feeling this 50% decline due to shortages? Because they largely didnt forecast it this badly.

The majority of chip manufacturers usually have between 15 and 30% overhead in chip manufacturing to deal with increasing in demand typically. It is just that NOW, that excess is all going to anyone willing to pay top dollar for that demand, looking at you nVidia, and even then we aren't experiencing shortages, we are experiencing too much demand.

I mean even their company release reveals a possible shortage of 10 to 20% depending on how you look at it and THAT I believe. If they shorted Bronco, well that was just stupid, they knew demand was high. But I dont think they did. I think in this case they are choosing to float any reserve part allocations to other product lines so that they dont take as much of a hit.

 

[Drex]

...

(Remember, you’re ranked against the other orders at your dealer, so you don’t have to wait for all national priority orders to be built before you, just the ones in front of you at your dealer… that’s why the #1 very late reservation at one dealer could get delivered before the #2 very early reservation at another)
...

About 5% of the allocations were given to priority orders. They will use the commodities to build those before moving on to the regular orders (it is not constrained by allocations, it forces someone out of one for every priority order). If not all, almost all will be built first. If a priority order was timestamped after us regular Joe's, every single person in that situation is being delayed by the time it takes to build those priority orders plus any subsequent delays due to commodities being restricted when used up by the priority orders. At a minimum a 5% production delay for early reservation holders and possibly much longer if someone would have been okay with a commodity but gets pushed into not being okay by 1/20th of the production being moved in front of them. Bottom line is that commodities used for priority orders will be unavailable for the early timestamp orders that would have ordinarily gotten them. Obviously the later the timestamp, the less the effect. As an example let's say the Lux is in half of the priority orders (1800 units as a made up giggle number) and Ford has commodities to build 2000 of them. Instead of 2000 early timestamp reservations getting produced, they can only make 200 of them, then there might be a period of weeks before they get parts again. That is 1800 people waiting an extra couple weeks plus the time to build the priority orders, maybe five weeks in total, also everyone after them might be bumped more time if they run short of lux parts again. It will be most noticed by the early timestamps as an extra percentage of wait time. Make no mistake, it will be a minor delay for some and much more for others, but the delay will be several weeks of the Summer season for sure. There will be people screwed out of a special vacation or event that would have been fine without the PO's

 

[Vigor]

Thanks to this forum I found out about this local Bronco showing in Tacoma. The dealership I ordered mine from had no idea about it. So thank you all for letting me know.

I was very impressed. It's a beautiful truck. I didn't order the Cactus Gray but it looks so cool.

It can't be overstated how helpful this forum has been!

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