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AmericanFreedom

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Leveraged share repos are responsible for 1/3 of S&P gains — at a MINIMUN — since the financial crisis. We are in a new ball game now.

Long market index and overweight Ford stock — there you go. Ford is cheap now; the market has attributed more risk to it than will be realized.

At the same time, I am a seller of FCA and neutral on GM.
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Nickp

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Leveraged share repos are responsible for 1/3 of S&P gains — at a MINIMUN — since the financial crisis. We are in a new ball game now.

Long market index and overweight Ford stock — there you go. Ford is cheap now; the market has attributed more risk to it than will be realized.

At the same time, I am a seller of FCA and neutral on GM.
I’m just curious if the stock market is disconnected enough from reality to hit ATH’s while unemployment is 15%+.

I’m personally not thinking so but I’ve been wrong before.
 

Carolina Jim

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stock market is disconnected enough from reality
it's ALWAYS disconnected from reality....TODAY's reality anyway. Its a forward looking indicator. And there aren't many attractive alternatives in the global equity space. In term of fixed income, the US ten-year is a shade over half a percent...and the Senate today is encouraging states to explore bankruptcy, so their paper is a little iffy as well.
 

North7

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We are in a new ball game now.
Every crash brings the "New Normal" and prognosticators saying they have the future all figured out. That is why a broad market fund averages out the winners and losers and rewards the patient investor with a nice retirement. To say it another way, some of us pay cash for our Bronco and some make payments.

  • Active managers who claim that they would do better during periods of heightened volatility are going to have to find another argument.
  • For the ninth consecutive year, the majority (64.49 percent) of large-cap funds lagged the S&P 500 last year.
  • After 10 years, 85 percent of large cap funds underperformed the S&P 500, and after 15 years, nearly 92 percent are trailing the index.
Active fund managers trail the S&P 500 for the ninth year in a row in triumph for indexing
"Nearly nine out of 10 targeted funds underperform their respective benchmark index over the long run."
Why Are Fund Managers So Awful at Their Job?
 

Nickp

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it's ALWAYS disconnected from reality....TODAY's reality anyway. Its a forward looking indicator. And there aren't many attractive alternatives in the global equity space. In term of fixed income, the US ten-year is a shade over half a percent...and the Senate today is encouraging states to explore bankruptcy, so their paper is a little iffy as well.
That’s what makes this so interesting to me. I feel like the market is going to get pumped like crazy not due to fundamentals but from literally everything else being undesirable. (Including cash if our boy J-pow keeps printing) but at the same time I feel like that’s a house of cards.

I think honestly the long term effect of this is going to be the destruction of small business in the U.S. I just don’t see small retail or restaurants surviving this.
 

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Carolina Jim

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I think honestly the long term effect of this...
I hear'ya....but I read today that reservations are booming for 2021 cruises. Now...I don't know if the base price includes burial at sea if you don't make it back - but things may get back semi-normal quicker than you think.
 

Escape_Artist

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I hear'ya....but I read today that reservations are booming for 2021 cruises. Now...I don't know if the base price includes burial at sea if you don't make it back - but things may get back semi-normal quicker than you think.
I saw burial at sea is included, you'll have to pay to bring your body back
 

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Nickp

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Ride Em Bronco

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Fordboi

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what does the other end of that url look like?
 

Nickp

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what does the other end of that url look like?
From what he’s said the dealership info they’re sending out is basically stuff we already know
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