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Granger Poised to Have Largest non-reserved Bronco Inventory?

CoolTech

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Avid readers here know that there are approximately 190,000 reservations and that Ford is estimating that up to 75% of those reservations may be converted to orders. Further, we know that that Ford communicated an estimated allocation number to dealership - the largest factors in that calculation being their production capacity and their aforementioned (high?) conversion rate.

My questions is what is the estimated order to purchase consummation conversion rate? Certainly it is not 100% There is simply too much time between ordering and delivery and even some of the best intentioned buyers will not be able to follow through. Life happens.

So, there will be a small % of Broncos that are produced and delivered to dealerships and for which the buyer - for one reason or another, does not follow through. What becomes of these units? Does the Ford region re-claim these Broncos and perhaps has some kind of methodology to distribute them? Or, does the dealership keep them?

Assuming that Granger is the largest reservation holder in the Country and further assuming that this order fall-out % is relatively constant geographically, then it stands to reason that Granger may have the greatest number of Broncos available for retail sale.

One reason I pose the question is that I (as a non-FE reservation holder) would be interested to have an FE. If my ordering dealership had an FE "fall through", would there be a possibility for me to opt for the FE?

A darker question is if any dealerships are gaming the system using this method. Certainly it would be really straightforward to ask close friends and family to reserve a Bronco, proceed through the reservation to order to conversion and then stop short of purchase follow-through.

For persons without a reservation and who decide they have to have a Bronco, there will be a finite period of time - say between July 2021 (when deliveries start) and maybe April of 2022 when there are exactly 2 and only 2 "sources" for obtaining a Bronco. The first would be anyone who has already taken delivery and who would consider selling. The second would be this "inventory" of orders that failed to be consummated.

Perhaps I missed it, but has Ford said anything about these un-consummated orders?

Anyone care to speculate on what this % is? (I think it will be small, but even at 3-4%, that's still a fair number of Broncos that are produced and presumably available.)
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The vehicle stays on that dealers lot to be sold. There is a penalty for not selling the vehicle to the original customer. The penalty is steep enough that Granger has said on multiple occasions they don't want to be put in that position.
 

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75% conversion rate.

Ford Bronco Granger Poised to Have Largest non-reserved Bronco Inventory? 1611170043562
 

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I think you're right. Maybe this is my way to get an FE lol
 

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I think they would just not produce a cancelled FE. They are only out the stickers on their side. Everything else is a part that can be used on another Bronco. What does Ford care if they end up with 6,792 FEs. They’re busy gearing up for Heritage Edition for MY22.
 

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I think they would just not produce a cancelled FE. They are only out the stickers on their side. Everything else is a part that can be used on another Bronco. What does Ford care if they end up with 6,792 FEs. They’re busy gearing up for Heritage Edition for MY22.
I mentioned that the other day and someone said Ford was gonna build all 7k which I find hard to believe given the commodity issues, but guess we will find out eventually. Best case you get an FE on a dealer lot for retail sale with a nice up charge ADM lol
 

Migs1313

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I think they would just not produce a cancelled FE. They are only out the stickers on their side. Everything else is a part that can be used on another Bronco. What does Ford care if they end up with 6,792 FEs. They’re busy gearing up for Heritage Edition for MY22.
I think he saying the person orders the FE then doesn't purchase it once it arrives at the dealer so its already been built
 

lobbs611

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?? at 75% conversions. That number thrown out there is the bane to this whole rollout. Panic over allocations? Commodity shortages? Those warnings are directly related to Ford being overly optimistic at how many will convert. At a more realistic 50%? 40%? Those strains get relieved considerably. I get it, they have to plan for the worst. Then they can play the hero when reality lets them deliver more quickly. It's almost laughable at this point the frenzy of people thinking all 200,000 reservations are going to be converted.
 

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I mentioned that the other day and someone said Ford was gonna build all 7k which I find hard to believe given the commodity issues, but guess we will find out eventually. Best case you get an FE on a dealer lot for retail sale with a nice up charge ADM lol
For what it is worth, when I called Ford to move dealers on an order, the Ford rep told me that Ford will NOT produce FE reservations that are cancelled.
 

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?? at 75% conversions. That number thrown out there is the bane to this whole rollout. Panic over allocations? Commodity shortages? Those warnings are directly related to Ford being overly optimistic at how many will convert. At a more realistic 50%? 40%? Those strains get relieved considerably. I get it, they have to plan for the worst. Then they can play the hero when reality lets them deliver more quickly. It's almost laughable at this point the frenzy of people thinking all 200,000 reservations are going to be converted.
We'll see...I think Ford has a better handle on what the conversion rate will be than you do...but you may be right. We shall see.
 

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CoolTech

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For what it is worth, when I called Ford to move dealers on an order, the Ford rep told me that Ford will NOT produce FE reservations that are cancelled.
Interesting data point. However, in my scenario I am NOT speaking about cancelled orders. I'm speaking about orders that get manufactured and delivered to the ordering dealer.... and then for one reason or another the buyer does not purchase.
 

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Assuming that Granger is the largest reservation holder in the Country and further assuming that this order fall-out % is relatively constant geographically, then it stands to reason that Granger may have the greatest number of Broncos available for retail sale.
Not just to sell to the public but they may have a larger amount to sell/trade to other dealers, which can be even more valuable.
 

Tonka Bronka

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?? at 75% conversions. That number thrown out there is the bane to this whole rollout. Panic over allocations? Commodity shortages? Those warnings are directly related to Ford being overly optimistic at how many will convert. At a more realistic 50%? 40%? Those strains get relieved considerably. I get it, they have to plan for the worst. Then they can play the hero when reality lets them deliver more quickly. It's almost laughable at this point the frenzy of people thinking all 200,000 reservations are going to be converted.
Exactly! But to the OP’s question, the fair thing for the dealer to do is go down the list of people who aren’t getting a 21 and see if they are interested in an unclaimed Bronco. Simple as that. Should keep Ford happy, the dealer happy, and their reservation holders happy.
 

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Interesting data point. However, in my scenario I am NOT speaking about cancelled orders. I'm speaking about orders that get manufactured and delivered to the ordering dealer.... and then for one reason or another the buyer does not purchase.
Yeah, those will get sold by the dealers. Some of the 7000 FE orders have already cancelled, so according to the Ford rep less than 7000 will be built.
 
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CoolTech

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Exactly! But to the OP’s question, the fair thing for the dealer to do is go down the list of people who aren’t getting a 21 and see if they are interested in an unclaimed Bronco. Simple as that. Should keep Ford happy, the dealer happy, and their reservation holders happy.
Not sure if that could be cost effectively administrated, but that would seem like a win-win resolution. I would say that dealers go through their list of any orders not yet in production (those that can still be cancelled) and allow the individual to opt for a Bronco that has already been built. Customer is happy, dealer can delete order - freeing up another allocation spot... so Ford is happy.
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