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Granger Poised to Have Largest non-reserved Bronco Inventory?

Stroopaloop

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Avid readers here know that there are approximately 190,000 reservations and that Ford is estimating that up to 75% of those reservations may be converted to orders. Further, we know that that Ford communicated an estimated allocation number to dealership - the largest factors in that calculation being their production capacity and their aforementioned (high?) conversion rate.

My questions is what is the estimated order to purchase consummation conversion rate? Certainly it is not 100% There is simply too much time between ordering and delivery and even some of the best intentioned buyers will not be able to follow through. Life happens.

So, there will be a small % of Broncos that are produced and delivered to dealerships and for which the buyer - for one reason or another, does not follow through. What becomes of these units? Does the Ford region re-claim these Broncos and perhaps has some kind of methodology to distribute them? Or, does the dealership keep them?

Assuming that Granger is the largest reservation holder in the Country and further assuming that this order fall-out % is relatively constant geographically, then it stands to reason that Granger may have the greatest number of Broncos available for retail sale.

One reason I pose the question is that I (as a non-FE reservation holder) would be interested to have an FE. If my ordering dealership had an FE "fall through", would there be a possibility for me to opt for the FE?

A darker question is if any dealerships are gaming the system using this method. Certainly it would be really straightforward to ask close friends and family to reserve a Bronco, proceed through the reservation to order to conversion and then stop short of purchase follow-through.

For persons without a reservation and who decide they have to have a Bronco, there will be a finite period of time - say between July 2021 (when deliveries start) and maybe April of 2022 when there are exactly 2 and only 2 "sources" for obtaining a Bronco. The first would be anyone who has already taken delivery and who would consider selling. The second would be this "inventory" of orders that failed to be consummated.

Perhaps I missed it, but has Ford said anything about these un-consummated orders?

Anyone care to speculate on what this % is? (I think it will be small, but even at 3-4%, that's still a fair number of Broncos that are produced and presumably available.)
I dunno but I'mma consecrate (violate) the back seat of my Bronco with my wife as soon as I get it home
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lowmpg

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75% conversion rate.

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Agreed. What are people smoking? Lee Iacocca couldn't get that amount of sales from the Bronco.
 

lowmpg

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?? at 75% conversions. That number thrown out there is the bane to this whole rollout. Panic over allocations? Commodity shortages? Those warnings are directly related to Ford being overly optimistic at how many will convert. At a more realistic 50%? 40%? Those strains get relieved considerably. I get it, they have to plan for the worst. Then they can play the hero when reality lets them deliver more quickly. It's almost laughable at this point the frenzy of people thinking all 200,000 reservations are going to be converted.

Accurate, it will be closer to 40% hence why Ford went with an initial 30% res allocation.
 

Toccoa

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I dunno but I'mma consecrate (violate) the back seat of my Bronco with my wife as soon as I get it home
You might need to change your order to a Badlands for that. ?
 

rtaylor

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The vehicle stays on that dealers lot to be sold. There is a penalty for not selling the vehicle to the original customer. The penalty is steep enough that Granger has said on multiple occasions they don't want to be put in that position.
Somebody posted the actual Ford dealership penalty rules on this site somewhere.

Quick summary:
If a dealer sells more than 20% to non-reservation holders they will get a review to see if there is overt fraud. If overt fraud is found, dealer will lose 1 month allocation. There are additional penalties if >20% fraud continues to occur. I would not think that Granger would be doing ANY fraud, so I assume that they would be able to freely sell any and all unclaimed orders even if >20%. I have no clue how this figures into their business model (if at all).
 

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Accurate, it will be closer to 40% hence why Ford went with an initial 30% res allocation.
No...it isn't...Ford is allocating every single Bronco they can build for MY21.
 

HoosierDaddy

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Accurate, it will be closer to 40% hence why Ford went with an initial 30% res allocation.
Using 200k @40% gives you 80k conversions.
That leaves 10k more than they forecast to build in 2021.
Figure all those wanting to wait for 2022 or green , heritage, black tops or whatever..... you might see dealer stock 2021 Christmas Broncos .... lol.

:LOL::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
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CoolTech

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If a dealer sells more than 20% to non-reservation holders they will get a review to see if there is overt fraud.
To be clear, I don't think there's any chance in hell that Granger would do ANYTHING fraudulant or against the grain of what Ford wants. I only included Granger because they likely have the highest number of allocations when all of the dust settles and if there a % of orders that fail to consummate (after having been built), then they will have the largest number of these. Just math.

The "more than 20%" may not be a tight enough of a threshold to extend to unscrupulous dealers. If a modest-sized dealer has an allocation of 50, it means that they can sell as many as 9 units to non-reservation holders and they're still not on Ford's radar? Giddy up.... let the gaming begin.
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