Sponsored

How many will it take? How many reservation dropouts will it take for me to get a 2021?

mlcinema

Black Diamond
Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2020
Threads
109
Messages
806
Reaction score
1,477
Location
US
Vehicle(s)
Off Road
Your Bronco Model
Black Diamond
Clubs
 
Ya, I know. I am really late. I have a late October reservation. I wasn’t sure if I could afford one.

So, how many reservation dropouts will it take for me to get a 2021 instead of a 2022?
Sponsored

 

Bronc-O

Outer Banks
Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2020
Threads
5
Messages
5,517
Reaction score
7,159
Location
Phoenix
Vehicle(s)
2021 Lincoln Aviator
Your Bronco Model
Outer Banks
I think it would take enough that you could call the Bronco a failure if that happened. Reservations made now would likely be for late 22 delivery.
 
OP
OP
mlcinema

mlcinema

Black Diamond
Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2020
Threads
109
Messages
806
Reaction score
1,477
Location
US
Vehicle(s)
Off Road
Your Bronco Model
Black Diamond
Clubs
 
I think it would take enough that you could call the Bronco a failure if that happened. Reservations made now would likely be for late 22 delivery.
Maybe I should ask, how many will it take for me to get mine in 2021 no matter what MY it is.
 

BroncoJay

Badlands
Well-Known Member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Jul 19, 2020
Threads
10
Messages
2,963
Reaction score
10,900
Location
Iowa
Vehicle(s)
Tacoma
Your Bronco Model
Badlands
Come February when the reservations have been processed to orders, Ford will then have a pretty good understanding where we fall in the build line...
I’m a July 23 reservation holder and still most likely looking at a mid Fall delivery... and that my friend is just a wild ass guess..
 

Sponsored

Brock27

Badlands
Well-Known Member
First Name
Brock
Joined
Oct 22, 2020
Threads
0
Messages
78
Reaction score
108
Location
Phoenix AZ
Vehicle(s)
BMW M4
Your Bronco Model
Badlands
I'm a July 15th and hoping for a late summer delivery of my bare-bones Badlands. It'll likely be up for sale in 2022 if the Warthog is out by then :)
 

Brownie

Badlands
Well-Known Member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Aug 28, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
207
Reaction score
519
Location
Maple Ridge, BC Canada
Vehicle(s)
Bronco Badlands, 1981 Trans Am, 1972 Austin Mini
Your Bronco Model
Badlands
Clubs
 
August 19th order date. Hoping for an early Xmas present?
 

Gamecock

Banned
Badlands
Banned
Banned
Joined
Jul 16, 2020
Threads
14
Messages
3,009
Reaction score
10,259
Location
Virginia
Vehicle(s)
2021 Bronco Badlands / Sasquatch
Your Bronco Model
Badlands
Ya, I know. I am really late. I have a late October reservation. I wasn’t sure if I could afford one.

So, how many reservation dropouts will it take for me to get a 2021 instead of a 2022?
If you’re at a mega dealer and conversion rate is low, you have a shot.
 
OP
OP
mlcinema

mlcinema

Black Diamond
Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2020
Threads
109
Messages
806
Reaction score
1,477
Location
US
Vehicle(s)
Off Road
Your Bronco Model
Black Diamond
Clubs
 
If you’re at a mega dealer and conversion rate is low, you have a shot.
I‘m not. Dealership has around 50 reservations.......I think.
 

Sponsored

VictoryLights

Badlands
Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 9, 2020
Threads
31
Messages
1,758
Reaction score
4,160
Location
Pittsburgh
Vehicle(s)
2018 Honda Pilot
Your Bronco Model
Badlands
Clubs
 
I'm a July 15th and hoping for a late summer delivery of my bare-bones Badlands. It'll likely be up for sale in 2022 if the Warthog is out by then :)
That's a pretty expensive year of driving if you think about tax and depreciation, wow.
 

Drex

Banned
Badlands
Banned
Banned
First Name
Jake
Joined
Jan 4, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
2,338
Reaction score
7,076
Location
various, construction engineer.
Vehicle(s)
'13 SLK55 AMG, '15 Indian Chief, '15 WRX
Your Bronco Model
Badlands
I think it would take enough that you could call the Bronco a failure if that happened. Reservations made now would likely be for late 22 delivery.
No. Ford has stated they can build more than 6000 a week if necessary. Lets take off 17% for a cushion and call it an average of 5000 a week to account for parts delays and so forth. Late 2022 would be about 65 weeks (with holidays and retooling time taken out). that would be 65 x 5000 or 325000 units.

Ford had about 190K reservations at last reporting, lets go wild and say they had 250K now, because...why not? They claim they expect 70% conversion rate (which seems hugely optimistic to me, but let's go with it.)

250K x .7 = 175000 units.

At 5000 a week (and that is conservative as are all the numbers here) that means it will take 35 weeks to completely fill them, Deliveries start in mid June, 2021. That would go to middle of Feb 2022. If it is 200K converted reservations; Dec 28th 2021. (200K would be a 105% conversion rate if the 190K number is still accurate and almost exactly the entire 2019 number or Wranglers sold in 2019. So we have to also believe it will bring in enough new buyers, plus whatever they can peel off Wrangler, to just about equal Jeeps entire production of that model for a pre-covid year.)

If 200K and Ford converts 50% (which you can decide if it is optimistic or not), Nov. 2nd, 2021.

I believe all reservations, barring oddball shortages or willful postponement by the customers, will be in people's hands before Thanksgiving of next year. There is no way all/most reservations made today will take a full year longer to get built and delivered.

That 325000 units over 15 months would be more units per day sold than the best year and a quarter that Wrangler ever had. It is just not going to happen.

As to the MY, depends on when Ford swaps over, but most will be completed, in my opinion, before a traditional change in October.

Hope it works out well for whatever is your personal situation (OP).
 

Firefight911

Wildtrak
Well-Known Member
First Name
Phil
Joined
Aug 24, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
1,358
Reaction score
4,416
Location
Simpsonville, South Carolina
Vehicle(s)
2022 Ford Bronco 4-door Wildtrak, Eruption Green
Your Bronco Model
Wildtrak
Clubs
 
Just wait and I am sure some here will sell their Broncos soon after they buy it. I would consider selling you mine
You're over-thinking it. You can place an order and just not buy it. BAM, a Bronco on the dealer's lot for sale!!! However, it you're after some sort or resale profit.... :)
 

Raptor911

Raptor
Well-Known Member
First Name
Raptor911
Joined
Jun 17, 2020
Threads
161
Messages
5,347
Reaction score
11,807
Location
Broadlands, VA
Vehicle(s)
2021 F150 Raptor, 2022 Wildtrak
Your Bronco Model
Raptor
BUT .. what dealerships and when will they have them? It will be completely random all over the country.

I guarantee you that in the 1st year, there will be Broncos selling 2nd hand for more than it was new.

You're over-thinking it. You can place an order and just not buy it. BAM, a Bronco on the dealer's lot for sale!!! However, it you're after some sort or resale profit.... :)
 

Bronc-O

Outer Banks
Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2020
Threads
5
Messages
5,517
Reaction score
7,159
Location
Phoenix
Vehicle(s)
2021 Lincoln Aviator
Your Bronco Model
Outer Banks
No. Ford has stated they can build more than 6000 a week if necessary. Lets take off 17% for a cushion and call it an average of 5000 a week to account for parts delays and so forth. Late 2022 would be about 65 weeks (with holidays and retooling time taken out). that would be 65 x 5000 or 325000 units.

Ford had about 190K reservations at last reporting, lets go wild and say they had 250K now, because...why not? They claim they expect 70% conversion rate (which seems hugely optimistic to me, but let's go with it.)

250K x .7 = 175000 units.

At 5000 a week (and that is conservative as are all the numbers here) that means it will take 35 weeks to completely fill them, Deliveries start in mid June, 2021. That would go to middle of Feb 2022. If it is 200K converted reservations; Dec 28th 2021. (200K would be a 105% conversion rate if the 190K number is still accurate and almost exactly the entire 2019 number or Wranglers sold in 2019. So we have to also believe it will bring in enough new buyers, plus whatever they can peel off Wrangler, to just about equal Jeeps entire production of that model for a pre-covid year.)

If 200K and Ford converts 50% (which you can decide if it is optimistic or not), Nov. 2nd, 2021.

I believe all reservations, barring oddball shortages or willful postponement by the customers, will be in people's hands before Thanksgiving of next year. There is no way all/most reservations made today will take a full year longer to get built and delivered.

That 325000 units over 15 months would be more units per day sold than the best year and a quarter that Wrangler ever had. It is just not going to happen.

As to the MY, depends on when Ford swaps over, but most will be completed, in my opinion, before a traditional change in October.

Hope it works out well for whatever is your personal situation (OP).
Sounds good in print. We already know there are commodity issues. We know those numbers won't happen right away. They will slowly ramp up. The first weeks of production will go on QC hold in case issues develop. Could be health shutdowns either at Ford or vendors. Realistically, there would be 25 weeks or less build time in 21 and then switch to 22's. The process for 22's hasn't been revealed yet, so no telling if it will stay the same next year or when 22 job #1 will begin.
Sponsored

 
 


Top