How many will it take? How many reservation dropouts will it take for me to get a 2021?

[BroncoAgain]

60x24=1440x7=10,080 minutes in a week. At 5000 a week that's 1 every 2 minutes 24 hours a day. Really.

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[Bronc-O]

60x24=1440x7=10,080 minutes in a week. At 5000 a week that's 1 every 2 minutes 24 hours a day. Really.

They plan on running 2 twelve hour shifts 5 days a week and 2 Saturdays per month.

 

[Brock27]

That's a pretty expensive year of driving if you think about tax and depreciation, wow.

I don't think about it, though.

 

[JaxGtc]

I think there will end up being about 50k '21s and that will end up making them slightly more unique a couple of decades down the road. No more valuable per se, but maybe more sought after.

 

[accord77]

Maybe I should ask, how many will it take for me to get mine in 2021 no matter what MY it is.

you will be fine if you are really serious about ordering the bronco. remember 12.6 million as of sept. 2020 is still unemployed. I'm one of them, but I will be ordering mine since I save for a rainy day. I'm sure 165,000-200,000 that put $100 down, lets say 70% or less convert that's 60,000 that will bump you up the line

 

[Stevegp]

No. Ford has stated they can build more than 6000 a week if necessary. Lets take off 17% for a cushion and call it an average of 5000 a week to account for parts delays and so forth. Late 2022 would be about 65 weeks (with holidays and retooling time taken out). that would be 65 x 5000 or 325000 units.

Ford had about 190K reservations at last reporting, lets go wild and say they had 250K now, because...why not? They claim they expect 70% conversion rate (which seems hugely optimistic to me, but let's go with it.)

250K x .7 = 175000 units.

At 5000 a week (and that is conservative as are all the numbers here) that means it will take 35 weeks to completely fill them, Deliveries start in mid June, 2021. That would go to middle of Feb 2022. If it is 200K converted reservations; Dec 28th 2021. (200K would be a 105% conversion rate if the 190K number is still accurate and almost exactly the entire 2019 number or Wranglers sold in 2019. So we have to also believe it will bring in enough new buyers, plus whatever they can peel off Wrangler, to just about equal Jeeps entire production of that model for a pre-covid year.)

If 200K and Ford converts 50% (which you can decide if it is optimistic or not), Nov. 2nd, 2021.

I believe all reservations, barring oddball shortages or willful postponement by the customers, will be in people's hands before Thanksgiving of next year. There is no way all/most reservations made today will take a full year longer to get built and delivered.

That 325000 units over 15 months would be more units per day sold than the best year and a quarter that Wrangler ever had. It is just not going to happen.

As to the MY, depends on when Ford swaps over, but most will be completed, in my opinion, before a traditional change in October.

Hope it works out well for whatever is your personal situation (OP).

I like your math ! ?

 

[jehines3]

my real hope is the September cut off sticks and my sept 22 reservation stays a MY 22 vehicle. If too many don’t convert, I don’t see them moving the arbitrary September goal post. If anything I hope they sprinkle In a few dealer units for the volume guys that are just short of a full Truck load. I think the Late availability means “maybe” depending on take rate for MY21 but should be “available” for MY22. I actually want 50-60k built before mine! Just my $0.02

As a Projectguy, we have a saying:
Quality, Price, Schedule (pick 2)

Ford must put quality first. Their shareholders and board now demand it. I concur with it, even though it means this long wait continues.

 

[Trilifter7]

No. Ford has stated they can build more than 6000 a week if necessary. Lets take off 17% for a cushion and call it an average of 5000 a week to account for parts delays and so forth. Late 2022 would be about 65 weeks (with holidays and retooling time taken out). that would be 65 x 5000 or 325000 units.

Ford had about 190K reservations at last reporting, lets go wild and say they had 250K now, because...why not? They claim they expect 70% conversion rate (which seems hugely optimistic to me, but let's go with it.)

250K x .7 = 175000 units.

At 5000 a week (and that is conservative as are all the numbers here) that means it will take 35 weeks to completely fill them, Deliveries start in mid June, 2021. That would go to middle of Feb 2022. If it is 200K converted reservations; Dec 28th 2021. (200K would be a 105% conversion rate if the 190K number is still accurate and almost exactly the entire 2019 number or Wranglers sold in 2019. So we have to also believe it will bring in enough new buyers, plus whatever they can peel off Wrangler, to just about equal Jeeps entire production of that model for a pre-covid year.)

If 200K and Ford converts 50% (which you can decide if it is optimistic or not), Nov. 2nd, 2021.

I believe all reservations, barring oddball shortages or willful postponement by the customers, will be in people's hands before Thanksgiving of next year. There is no way all/most reservations made today will take a full year longer to get built and delivered.

That 325000 units over 15 months would be more units per day sold than the best year and a quarter that Wrangler ever had. It is just not going to happen.

As to the MY, depends on when Ford swaps over, but most will be completed, in my opinion, before a traditional change in October.

Hope it works out well for whatever is your personal situation (OP).

I agree with this but you left out late availability options like mansquatch and painted hard tops. Depending on how many order late availability options that could move other people up in line. I’d guess no more than 10% will actually wait for late availability but that is still significant to others in line

 

[XirallicBolts]

I'm guessing their "6,000 a week if necessary" is a theoretical number. "If all parts are available on-site, no major tooling changes between trims, nobody orders Rangers..."

 

[Thed]

As a Projectguy, we have a saying:
Quality, Price, Schedule (pick 2)

As an auto enthusiast, it's always been this:

Reliability, performance, price - pick two.

 

[Hooper]

No. Ford has stated they can build more than 6000 a week if necessary. Lets take off 17% for a cushion and call it an average of 5000 a week to account for parts delays and so forth. Late 2022 would be about 65 weeks (with holidays and retooling time taken out). that would be 65 x 5000 or 325000 units.

Ford had about 190K reservations at last reporting, lets go wild and say they had 250K now, because...why not? They claim they expect 70% conversion rate (which seems hugely optimistic to me, but let's go with it.)

250K x .7 = 175000 units.

At 5000 a week (and that is conservative as are all the numbers here) that means it will take 35 weeks to completely fill them, Deliveries start in mid June, 2021. That would go to middle of Feb 2022. If it is 200K converted reservations; Dec 28th 2021. (200K would be a 105% conversion rate if the 190K number is still accurate and almost exactly the entire 2019 number or Wranglers sold in 2019. So we have to also believe it will bring in enough new buyers, plus whatever they can peel off Wrangler, to just about equal Jeeps entire production of that model for a pre-covid year.)

If 200K and Ford converts 50% (which you can decide if it is optimistic or not), Nov. 2nd, 2021.

I believe all reservations, barring oddball shortages or willful postponement by the customers, will be in people's hands before Thanksgiving of next year. There is no way all/most reservations made today will take a full year longer to get built and delivered.

That 325000 units over 15 months would be more units per day sold than the best year and a quarter that Wrangler ever had. It is just not going to happen.

As to the MY, depends on when Ford swaps over, but most will be completed, in my opinion, before a traditional change in October.

Hope it works out well for whatever is your personal situation (OP).

I agree with everything you said. I feel like people saying they reserved in August won't get it until Christmas sounds crazy to me. I think someone posted that production starts in March and I thought I read somewhere that people could get them as early as may. In general I'm thinking most people will have hem by thanksgiving as well.

 

[BroncoAgain]

While they are in a mad rush to build them will they be building spare parts for accidents and repair. These Bronco's are not going to be collector items like the 66-77 is. Problem with those early years is it's a huge theft target. It sounds like anyone not already in, is out till 2022. IMO, as the years go buy they will only get better. More HP by year 3 for sure.

 

[Treeza61]

Come February when the reservations have been processed to orders, Ford will then have a pretty good understanding where we fall in the build line...
I’m a July 23 reservation holder and still most likely looking at a mid Fall delivery... and that my friend is just a wild ass guess..

I’m a 7/24 and figure mid October.

 

[Treeza61]

While they are in a mad rush to build them will they be building spare parts for accidents and repair. These Bronco's are not going to be collector items like the 66-77 is. Problem with those early years is it's a huge theft target. It sounds like anyone not already in, is out till 2022. IMO, as the years go buy they will only get better. More HP by year 3 for sure.

Yes of course they will be building service parts as well.

 

[jcmhere]

August 19th order date. Hoping for an early Xmas present?

Order date or Reservation Date?

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