Late reservation holder, realistic lead time?

[BigMike949]

So I placed my reservation late, Jan 5th.. I had a brand new Jeep Wrangler at the time the reservation started and planned to keep it 5-6 years.. however it turned out my Jeep is getting bought back on ca lemon la due to a variety of issues with the vehicle. So it was either get another Jeep or a Broncos. I was told 2022 model year was likely with that date.. which I figured would be the end of this year because they release ahead of the calendar year, then I heard of the order delays and it’s looking like early 2022 calendar year... I have some hope the reservation list has a lot of dreamers who can’t afford it, can’t get out of there current vehicle, or can’t wait the lead time, and that it would actually end up that I would get it sooner.. but when the 2021 allocations came out and were so small I started to doubt it and now hearing of the supply issues for all the options I want and am worried I will really be two years.. and I turn my Jeep in with I. The next 90 days..

I ordered a badland Sasquatch 6cyl soft top Lux package

I have to either buy a cheap used car that I wouldn’t want to drive for 2 years.. or do a two year lease.. but really struggling to understand how long I will really wait , I order to make that decision .. looking for feedback

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[kodiakisland]

People that reserved in July will be getting MY22s. Things happen and who knows when we get what, but I wouldn't think you'll see yours any time in early 2022. Plan on mid 22 or later.

 

[ssolypop]

So I placed my reservation late, Jan 5th.. I had a brand new Jeep Wrangler at the time the reservation started and planned to keep it 5-6 years.. however it turned out my Jeep is getting bought back on ca lemon la due to a variety of issues with the vehicle. So it was either get another Jeep or a Broncos. I was told 2022 model year was likely with that date.. which I figured would be the end of this year because they release ahead of the calendar year, then I heard of the order delays and it’s looking like early 2022 calendar year... I have some hope the reservation list has a lot of dreamers who can’t afford it, can’t get out of there current vehicle, or can’t wait the lead time, and that it would actually end up that I would get it sooner.. but when the 2021 allocations came out and were so small I started to doubt it and now hearing of the supply issues for all the options I want and am worried I will really be two years.. and I turn my Jeep in with I. The next 90 days..

I ordered a badland Sasquatch 6cyl soft top Lux package

I have to either buy a cheap used car that I wouldn’t want to drive for 2 years.. or do a two year lease.. but really struggling to understand how long I will really wait , I order to make that decision .. looking for feedback

Big Mike, no body knows bro. If you are willing to wait two years to get your Bronco then you're good. If you want it in a year then not so good. I have a late July res and I am completely expecting to get a mid MY22. If it's earlier then great, but not holding my breath....

If you really want a Bronco then waiting is not a bad thing because it gives more time for accessories and aftermarket upgrades. Get something cheap now and stow away a couple hundred bucks a month for the Bronco... also waiting will get you a great discount and you may be able to pick up a used Bronco

What you think you gonna do?

 

[HoosierDaddy]

Remind me bot : Remind me in May


200,000 reservations.
Your Jan 5th would be around #199,850
In a dead on perfect world, maybe 20k Broncos a month max, starting in June 2021....so around June 2022 at the earliest.

Put another way, if the last of the reservation holders got their Bronco by June 2022, a WHOLE LOT of people in front of you would be very happy.

 

[BigMike949]

Big Mike, no body knows bro. If you are willing to wait two years to get your Bronco then you're good. If you want it in a year then not so good. I have a late July res and I am completely expecting to get a mid MY22. If it's earlier then great, but not holding my breath....

If you really want a Bronco then waiting is not a bad thing because it gives more time for accessories and aftermarket upgrades. Get something cheap now and stow away a couple hundred bucks a month for the Bronco... also waiting will get you a great discount and you may be able to pick up a used Bronco

What you think you gonna do?

I am pretty committed to waiting, I love hitting trails and want a true off-road vehicle, the 4runner TRD pro mark up and aged platform is not for me.. the Jeep I love but I just had a buy back and the solid front axle makes for a meh onroad experience especially with 35s.. the bronco is the vehicle for me...

Just trying to decide between buying a usd accord for 18k and dumping it for 15k when the bronco showed up, or jumping into a two year lease, the 2021 Jeep Grand Cherokee I can do a 2 year lease for under 500 a month.. and I would be fine driving that fir two years.., but driving a used accord fir 2 years is mehhh...

 

[BigMike949]

Remind me bot : Remind me in May


200,000 reservations.
Your Jan 5th would be around #199,850
In a dead on perfect world, maybe 20k Broncos a month max, starting in June 2021....so around June 2022 at the earliest.

Put another way, if the last of the reservation holders got their Bronco by June 2022, a WHOLE LOT of people in front of you would be very happy.

Ya that’s what I am afraid of

 

[ssolypop]

I am pretty committed to waiting, I love hitting trails and want a true off-road vehicle, the 4runner TRD pro mark up and aged platform is not for me.. the Jeep I love but I just had a buy back and the solid front axle makes for a meh onroad experience especially with 35s.. the bronco is the vehicle for me...

Just trying to decide between buying a usd accord for 18k and dumping it for 15k when the bronco showed up, or jumping into a two year lease, the 2021 Jeep Grand Cherokee I can do a 2 year lease for under 500 a month.. and I would be fine driving that fir two years.., but driving a used accord fir 2 years is mehhh...

15K for used or 400+ for a lease... both of those seem outrageous to me if you are just waiting for 2 years. I'm driving a 2014 dodge avenger till I get my Bronco. You can get a lease for $200 then maybe but if not then pick up a used car from a friend, co-worker or old lady down the street for $5-6K then put the other 10K away for your dp

 

[Beach_Bum]

You keep mentioning 2 years, but as KodiakIsland suggested above, you should expect late spring/early summer (June) for a delivery. 2 years from now is February 2023. You just need to find a ride to hold you over from when you unload your Heep and when you take delivery of your Bronco.

 

[Drex]

Nobody knows, including me. Don't listen to any of us. Having said that, Ford said 195K reservations a bit ago, so 200K now doesn't seem unreasonable.

Short version:

My best guess is you are looking at between 10 and 15 months from order. No way it goes two years, so leasing for that long will hamstring you when your order comes up. I would suggest you make sure your dealer puts it in as an active order (and not code 99) and see what dates they come up with in May when they give you a rough ETA. That is the soonest you will get any kind of solid dates, we are all just guessing here.


long version;

If there are no delays in getting parts, and that is a big if (either due to supplier production hassles or Ford just didn't anticipate and order enough widgets in advance, or a combination therein.) Ford stated mid last year that they could do 5500 a week without overtime at the plant. That is really the last production forecast of which I am aware. So if 200K reservations turn into 150K orders (Fords most optimistic guess at conversions to orders), at 5000 units a week average that gives you 35 weeks to get all the reservations done. Let's call that best case if Ford is correct on the number of orders. Not very likely, but a starting spot. Going off projected delivery times and not production start times because who cares if it is built if it is not at your dealer waiting for you; June 7th seems like a good enough date to pick for that. 35 weeks (accounting for holidays, change over to new MY and so forth, puts you at around the end of January next year. That is for all the orders at Ford's maximum reservation to order conversion questimate. So we have the highest number of orders Ford, which, paradoxically for you, is the worst case situation.

If Ford gets 3/4's of all reservations turned into orders and they can meet the production numbers they stated (during the Covid year), your best case is getting one 11 months from now.


I personally think the conversion rate will be at around 35%. Meaning 70K orders and 4 four months to get them delivered (meaning anyone who wants a 2021 model will get one, weird happenings aside). (best case and assuming no major delays from parts suppliers)

The truth is somewhere in between, although I lean towards faster as the suppliers and Ford are highly motivated to get paid for the R&D, tooling, and other expenses for which they have already expended the cash.

There may be additional delays if you are looking for some of the promised changes for the 2022 model year. Ford hasn't been able to even give the promised stuff for 2021. So that may add time as well.

Ford or their parts suppliers may only be able to get 2000 a week done, multiply the number of weeks by 2.5 to get those dates. When Ford does have what they need to rock and roll that line, they will pump out every other Saturday overtime they will catch up some, but until they start that production line humming, we don't know. Fuel prices will jump up over the next months and stay there for at least an even number of years that is more than three. People will be stretched thinner and may forgo purchasing a new toy that gets 16MPG combined and drop out before their unit is produced. They may swap to something that gets better mileage and drop out. Any number of unknowns out there. Splitting the difference between Ford and myself, is 25 weeks. Adding a safety factor of 25 days for unexpected delays gets you to my final thoughts.

Final thoughts are moved to the top of the post so that is that.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

As others have said, nobody knows. I don’t expert mine until spring-summer 2022 and I’m an august reservation.

 

[Drex]

Remind me bot : Remind me in May


200,000 reservations.
Your Jan 5th would be around #199,850
In a dead on perfect world, maybe 20k Broncos a month max, starting in June 2021....so around June 2022 at the earliest.

Put another way, if the last of the reservation holders got their Bronco by June 2022, a WHOLE LOT of people in front of you would be very happy.

You are assuming 100% conversion rate from reservation to orders. At 75% rate, would kick that to nine months instead of 12....

at 50% rate, six months....

and so on.

 

[Hjhof]

Personally I am fine waiting till mid 2022 for my Bronco, my current car is a 2019 so I’m fine with paying it down more to get better trade in value, however I feel like people might be over estimating a bit (which is better than under estimating for planning purposes). Say Ford gets a 50% conversion rate on the 190,500 reservations (and that’s being optimistic) and they can make 10k Broncos a month from June, that’s about 9 months which means the last person that reserved is looking at March 2022 at the latest, and that’s before taking into account people who cancel after placing an order but before taking delivery and people who defer to 2022 on their own.

 

[BigMike949]

Nobody knows, including me. Don't listen to any of us. Having said that, Ford said 195K reservations a bit ago, so 200K now doesn't seem unreasonable.

Short version:

My best guess is you are looking at between 10 and 15 months from order. No way it goes two years, so leasing for that long will hamstring you when your order comes up. I would suggest you make sure your dealer puts it in as an active order (and not code 99) and see what dates they come up with in May when they give you a rough ETA. That is the soonest you will get any kind of solid dates, we are all just guessing here.


long version;

If there are no delays in getting parts, and that is a big if (either due to supplier production hassles or Ford just didn't anticipate and order enough widgets in advance, or a combination therein.) Ford stated mid last year that they could do 5500 a week without overtime at the plant. That is really the last production forecast of which I am aware. So if 200K reservations turn into 150K orders (Fords most optimistic guess at conversions to orders), at 5000 units a week average that gives you 35 weeks to get all the reservations done. Let's call that best case if Ford is correct on the number of orders. Not very likely, but a starting spot. Going off projected delivery times and not production start times because who cares if it is built if it is not at your dealer waiting for you; June 7th seems like a good enough date to pick for that. 35 weeks (accounting for holidays, change over to new MY and so forth, puts you at around the end of January next year. That is for all the orders at Ford's maximum reservation to order conversion questimate. So we have the highest number of orders Ford, which, paradoxically for you, is the worst case situation.

If Ford gets 3/4's of all reservations turned into orders and they can meet the production numbers they stated (during the Covid year), your best case is getting one 11 months from now.


I personally think the conversion rate will be at around 35%. Meaning 70K orders and 4 four months to get them delivered (meaning anyone who wants a 2021 model will get one, weird happenings aside). (best case and assuming no major delays from parts suppliers)

The truth is somewhere in between, although I lean towards faster as the suppliers and Ford are highly motivated to get paid for the R&D, tooling, and other expenses for which they have already expended the cash.

There may be additional delays if you are looking for some of the promised changes for the 2022 model year. Ford hasn't been able to even give the promised stuff for 2021. So that may add time as well.

Ford or their parts suppliers may only be able to get 2000 a week done, multiply the number of weeks by 2.5 to get those dates. When Ford does have what they need to rock and roll that line, they will pump out every other Saturday overtime they will catch up some, but until they start that production line humming, we don't know. Fuel prices will jump up over the next months and stay there for at least an even number of years that is more than three. People will be stretched thinner and may forgo purchasing a new toy that gets 16MPG combined and drop out before their unit is produced. They may swap to something that gets better mileage and drop out. Any number of unknowns out there. Splitting the difference between Ford and myself, is 25 weeks. Adding a safety factor of 25 days for unexpected delays gets you to my final thoughts.

Final thoughts are moved to the top of the post so that is that.

This a great answer and I think your assumptions are fairly reasonable, my priority code is 19 are you familiar with what that coding means? Appreciate the help can tell you really have down your research

 

[BigMike949]

Personally I am fine waiting till mid 2022 for my Bronco, my current car is a 2019 so I’m fine with paying it down more to get better trade in value, however I feel like people might be over estimating a bit (which is better than under estimating for planning purposes). Say Ford gets a 50% conversion rate on the 190,500 reservations (and that’s being optimistic) and they can make 10k Broncos a month from June, that’s about 9 months which means the last person that reserved is looking at March 2022 at the latest, and that’s before taking into account people who cancel after placing an order but before taking delivery and people who defer to 2022 on their own.

Agreed also see you have looked at the data, that makes me feel better l about buying something I don’t live to drive for 6-12 months that I can sell with only a minimal loss

 

[Fly by Nite]

This a great answer and I think your assumptions are fairly reasonable, my priority code is 19 are you familiar with what that coding means? Appreciate the help can tell you really have down your research

Priority code of 10-19 will put you in the que for 2021 IF Ford can get to it. If not, it will get bumped to a 2022. A priority code of 99 means it is not in the build que..... it delays the build until the customer is ready, at which time the dealer will change the priority code to a 10-19, putting it in the que. Those wanting to wait for a MY22 are using the priority 99 to delay the build.

Agree with those saying Summer-Fall 22 for your Jan reservation..... If Ford can get good production rates going and have the components available.

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