Late reservation holder, realistic lead time?

[Will2497]

This all seems pretty accurate. I work for a supplier of Toyota and all these lead times sound correct. I'm a late November reservation and expecting the vehicle around February 2022 at the earliest.

But, the earlier you get it, the longer you have to wait to enjoy with the top off (for me in Illinois). So maybe being able to enjoy that right upon delivery in April/May would be a plus

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[Wanted33]

Nobody knows, including me. Don't listen to any of us. Having said that, Ford said 195K reservations a bit ago, so 200K now doesn't seem unreasonable.

Short version:

My best guess is you are looking at between 10 and 15 months from order. No way it goes two years, so leasing for that long will hamstring you when your order comes up. I would suggest you make sure your dealer puts it in as an active order (and not code 99) and see what dates they come up with in May when they give you a rough ETA. That is the soonest you will get any kind of solid dates, we are all just guessing here.


long version;

If there are no delays in getting parts, and that is a big if (either due to supplier production hassles or Ford just didn't anticipate and order enough widgets in advance, or a combination therein.) Ford stated mid last year that they could do 5500 a week without overtime at the plant. That is really the last production forecast of which I am aware. So if 200K reservations turn into 150K orders (Fords most optimistic guess at conversions to orders), at 5000 units a week average that gives you 35 weeks to get all the reservations done. Let's call that best case if Ford is correct on the number of orders. Not very likely, but a starting spot. Going off projected delivery times and not production start times because who cares if it is built if it is not at your dealer waiting for you; June 7th seems like a good enough date to pick for that. 35 weeks (accounting for holidays, change over to new MY and so forth, puts you at around the end of January next year. That is for all the orders at Ford's maximum reservation to order conversion questimate. So we have the highest number of orders Ford, which, paradoxically for you, is the worst case situation.

If Ford gets 3/4's of all reservations turned into orders and they can meet the production numbers they stated (during the Covid year), your best case is getting one 11 months from now.


I personally think the conversion rate will be at around 35%. Meaning 70K orders and 4 four months to get them delivered (meaning anyone who wants a 2021 model will get one, weird happenings aside). (best case and assuming no major delays from parts suppliers)

The truth is somewhere in between, although I lean towards faster as the suppliers and Ford are highly motivated to get paid for the R&D, tooling, and other expenses for which they have already expended the cash.

There may be additional delays if you are looking for some of the promised changes for the 2022 model year. Ford hasn't been able to even give the promised stuff for 2021. So that may add time as well.

Ford or their parts suppliers may only be able to get 2000 a week done, multiply the number of weeks by 2.5 to get those dates. When Ford does have what they need to rock and roll that line, they will pump out every other Saturday overtime they will catch up some, but until they start that production line humming, we don't know. Fuel prices will jump up over the next months and stay there for at least an even number of years that is more than three. People will be stretched thinner and may forgo purchasing a new toy that gets 16MPG combined and drop out before their unit is produced. They may swap to something that gets better mileage and drop out. Any number of unknowns out there. Splitting the difference between Ford and myself, is 25 weeks. Adding a safety factor of 25 days for unexpected delays gets you to my final thoughts.

Final thoughts are moved to the top of the post so that is that.

Good answer Jake.....

Mike, I have a 10/04 reservation, and also going with the 2.7L and LUX package. Both are on constraint, so from what I can discern I'm looking at a summer '22 delivery. But, as we know delivery dates are a moving target. Hope all works out for you.

 

[Xploit]

So I placed my reservation late, Jan 5th.. I had a brand new Jeep Wrangler at the time the reservation started and planned to keep it 5-6 years.. however it turned out my Jeep is getting bought back on ca lemon la due to a variety of issues with the vehicle. So it was either get another Jeep or a Broncos. I was told 2022 model year was likely with that date.. which I figured would be the end of this year because they release ahead of the calendar year, then I heard of the order delays and it’s looking like early 2022 calendar year... I have some hope the reservation list has a lot of dreamers who can’t afford it, can’t get out of there current vehicle, or can’t wait the lead time, and that it would actually end up that I would get it sooner.. but when the 2021 allocations came out and were so small I started to doubt it and now hearing of the supply issues for all the options I want and am worried I will really be two years.. and I turn my Jeep in with I. The next 90 days..

I ordered a badland Sasquatch 6cyl soft top Lux package

I have to either buy a cheap used car that I wouldn’t want to drive for 2 years.. or do a two year lease.. but really struggling to understand how long I will really wait , I order to make that decision .. looking for feedback

If money is of less concern, you can bet there will be some broncos on the secondary market at very very premium prices.

 

[BigMike949]

Good answer Jake.....

Mike, I have a 10/04 reservation, and also going with the 2.7L and LUX package. Both are on constraint, so from what I can discern I'm looking at a summer '22 delivery. But, as we know delivery dates are a moving target. Hope all works out for you.

Ya we will see .. I should have me Jeep for a few Mysore months I can handle a used cheap car for 12 months max ..

 

[BigMike949]

If money is of less concern, you can bet there will be some broncos on the secondary market at very very premium prices.

Ya my dealer said i can jump I. May last minute cancellations at a 5k premium but I would rather wait 6 more months than do something like that. I might just spend a little more on the used car I buy to while I wait so I am not miserable waiting

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