Latest 2024 Bronco Production Key Commodity Constraints + Total Retail Unscheduled Orders (12/4/23)

[Newface]

There are currently 5,381 total retail unscheduled orders as of 12/4/23.

Retail USOB: Is the current mix of retail orders in the unscheduled order bank (USOB) at the time the report was run. The report only looks at orders that are “clean”, meaning they do not have a compatibility error, material hold or on 99 priority code.

See previous commodity report.

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[Loesch]

Just to preemptively answer questions that always pops up...

This commodity report is only valid at the time the report was generated, it is not indicative of the entire production year. That said, if you track these reports over time, it is often a good indicator of the constraints Ford has, and those constraints MAY last the entire production year.​

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Super hyper-simplified example using 2-door hard tops: Say Ford builds 5000 units in a single period. A maximum of 750 units can be a 2-door hard top. Which means... in effect... out of the 1264 unscheduled orders, ~40% of them have zero chance of being scheduled during this production period.​

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The reason why it is reported as percentages is simply because the number of unscheduled orders and the commodity constraints are constantly changing. What's ultimately important is the ratio (or delta) between the commodity constraint percentages and the USOB mix, which Ford expresses in the far right column. If the number is zero or positive, that indicates Ford has the correct ratio of commodities for the outstanding order mix.​

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Or... to put it more simply: If the number is black (positive), it indicates there is a very good chance that the vast majority of unscheduled orders with those options will be scheduled during the production year (assuming Ford does not overcommit). If the number is red (negative), that indicates that orders with those options are likely to be passed up for scheduling due to the constraints, have long wait times associated with them, and ultimately may not be scheduled this production year depending on the number of outstanding unscheduled orders at the end of the year. (Spoiler alert: Based on the current outstanding retail order numbers, I am reasonably confident everyone who has submitted an order so far will get built this year.)​

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It should be noted that this commodity guide, along with the SIMS orders, are intended to be a guide for dealers so they have an idea of what type of orders they need to submit to fill out their lots. It is not intended for public consumption (hence the "confidential"), and your order may still be scheduled even if you order contains an option that is red in "Var ppts" or the report lists 0% capacity.​

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I was still a little unsure about the time period that the Var ppts column represented. For example I wasn't sure if it was say 25% in red, did that mean 25% of orders that week would be skipped and then next week you might have another 75% chance of getting scheduled or if that was a forecast for the whole year meaning there was a 75% chance it wouldn't be scheduled at all for 2024 if things didn't change. I think I've finally got it now. If the number is 25% in red every week, there is a 25% chance you won't get one at all in 2024.

 

[KDWright5407]

I'm one of the unscheduled orders so far...missed the first batches being scheduled

MY24, 4D, HPR Badlands, Squatch, MIC, Lux, Tow (DIO)

 

[Brave Man]

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I was still a little unsure about the time period that the Var ppts column represented. For example I wasn't sure if it was say 25% in red, did that mean 25% of orders that week would be skipped and then next week you might have another 75% chance of getting scheduled or if that was a forecast for the whole year meaning there was a 75% chance it wouldn't be scheduled at all for 2024 if things didn't change. I think I've finally got it now. If the number is 25% in red every week, there is a 25% chance you won't get one at all in 2024.

Not true. The production Numbers are on a yearly basis.
the percent orders is a snapshot of orders currently unscheduled in the order banks for each trim or commodity out of the total orders thus this last variance percent points column (var ppts) is misleading at best. Do not use it to estimate the number of orders that will be built.
as an example the Heritage unscheduled orders are over 1300 currently And have the highest variance in the red yet they will probably all be built this year because Ford stopped taking new orders as they reached their yearly production limit of HEs.

 

[P52Ranch]

Last week’s commodity constraints report showed 11,380 unscheduled Broncos. This week’s report shows 5,381. Assuming no one ordered a Bronco last week that would be 5,999 retail orders scheduled last week. The retail order banks could drop to just fresh orders in a few weeks. (Minus all of the constrained orders in the system like Heritage 2 doors and 7MT, etc.)

 

[HItman84]

I'm one of the unscheduled orders so far...missed the first batches being scheduled

MY24, 4D, HPR Badlands, Squatch, MIC, Lux, Tow (DIO)

Same, not scheduled either.
MY24, HPR OBX, SAS, MIC, Lux, aux switches and modular bumper.

 

[HolidayDog]

I'm one of the unscheduled orders so far...missed the first batches being scheduled

MY24, 4D, HPR Badlands, Squatch, MIC, Lux, Tow (DIO)

I understand that Orders are scheduled on Thursdays. ….so if you check your order status with Ford Chat on Friday afternoon you might get a vin/build date. At least that’s what I am hoping for.

 

[KDWright5407]

I understand that Orders are scheduled on Thursdays. ….so if you check your order status with Ford Chat on Friday afternoon you might get a vin/build date. At least that’s what I am hoping for.

That's been my plan. I also reached out to my dealership to see how my order racked/stacked within their allotments, since that seems to have some say in the process. My order was placed within 20 minutes of the window opening, but I think that if my dealership prioritized my order lower than other folks based on whatever reason, then my order will be delayed. That said, they have yet to respond.

 

[Jhopkinson]

Thanks for posting this information and the explanations on how to decipher the data. This information is a life line for those of us with rigs in the order banks. I so look forward for these reports every week and really appreciate it being shared.

 

[Towerism]

Yea every week that this comes out it basically confirms that Ford is not making manual transmission vehicles for dealer stock.

Ford is definitely building them for customers who order them. Mine for example is scheduled to be built 1/15/2024.

 

[GPurcell]

I'm one of those few Everglades orders. Mine was submitted 12/1

 

[Jtencal]

Thank you for posting these updates and taking the time to explain them.

I tried the Ford chat not expecting much since my order was on 11/11. I’m confused by their response.

Ford:
Current status i
*Scheduled to Day (Jan-05-2024) Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, MI Dec-01-2023, 17:31 EST

ETAis To be Determined

Me:
So does that mean it's a Jan 5, 2024 build? Has it been assigned a VIN yet?

Ford:
It's scheduled to begin the building process on Jan 5, 2024.

And no, I do not see a VIN available as of yet.

 

[SparK]

Thank you for posting these updates and taking the time to explain them.

I tried the Ford chat not expecting much since my order was on 11/11. I’m confused by their response.

Ford:
Current status i
*Scheduled to Day (Jan-05-2024) Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, MI Dec-01-2023, 17:31 EST

ETAis To be Determined

Me:
So does that mean it's a Jan 5, 2024 build? Has it been assigned a VIN yet?

Ford:
It's scheduled to begin the building process on Jan 5, 2024.

And no, I do not see a VIN available as of yet.

What did you order? Maybe check back with chat Thursday afternoon or friday?

 

[kmerica]

Last week’s commodity constraints report showed 11,380 unscheduled Broncos. This week’s report shows 5,381. Assuming no one ordered a Bronco last week that would be 5,999 retail orders scheduled last week. The retail order banks could drop to just fresh orders in a few weeks. (Minus all of the constrained orders in the system like Heritage 2 doors and 7MT, etc.)

I have a Badlands, Sasquatch, hard top , lux. It shows as unscheduled clean and they told me I have a certificate worth 2,395.00 dollars for some sort of price adjustment, maybe MY23 versus MY24, original order was out in last March, don’t really understand the process, rolled to a MY24 on September 28th

 

[Jtencal]

What did you order? Maybe check back with chat Thursday afternoon or friday?

4 Dr Wildtrak, Lux, Tow, hard top…all the constraints lol. I’m not in a hurry but was curious since there were a lot scheduled with no emails sent out. I will definitely check back either this Friday or next.

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