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The other place this is going to cause some pain are those individuals currently just inside the 21 allocation number. A person who is currently 28 of 30, say. As Ford gets through reservations ahead of that person, but then runs out of a part that those late 20s builds need, they may go to reservation #31 to build. That means that unless Ford builds enough MY21s to supply that dealer 31 instead of 30, someone from inside the top 30 is going to get pushed.This is not entirely accurate. The April 8th deadline was for people to modify their order to remove items that were announced to be MY22 only... if they they wanted to be considered for a MY21 (since scheduling was starting). There are still people holding reservations that don't intend to convert until later.
As you said, Ford requested that all reservations be converted, even if they were MY22, so they could have information on generally what to expect and they could start ordering parts.
Even with that though, they can't physically produce enough Broncos to fulfill all of the orders in MY21, which actually works out for them because they can pick a chose a year's worth of orders to pack the 6mo. of MY21 production with just retail orders.
The big unknown however isn't what parts they will need (or even a very close guess), but the unforeseen issues... what if a supplier's factory burns down, or the Ever Given gets stuck and blocks a shipping route again, or there's another public health crisis that results in industry shut-downs.
I think the truth is Ford basically knows exactly what parts they want to have... but there's no way of knowing if they'll get them. At least for now there are enough orders to pull from they can weather any shortages.... the real freak outs are going to happen when we're in MY22, and they run out of parts for retail orders and make stock orders instead with the parts they do have on hand. It wont be that Ford is *choosing* to prioritize stock orders over retail orders, it's that they wont have a choice.
$0.02
And that isn't Ford's "fault" in that it's at the mercy of the suppliers to a great extent, but people who don't understand the complexity of the system are going to freak out.
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