My dealer is telling me ‘21....but?

[MillerBuilt]

I confirmed my order....4dr Wildtrak. My dealer (which seems very knowledgeable with the constant Bronco updates) says,
“Based on your reservation timestamp and our current (estimated) allocation you should be in good shape to get a 21MY. “
Is this currently even possible if I have 4 out of the 7 model year ‘21 killers?

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[BroncoJay]

Just because you have some of the “deadly 7” doesn’t mean ford won’t make any for 2021...


all this talk is just speculation- no one knows until after March 19

 

[Corsair]

Just because you have some of the “deadly 7” doesn’t mean ford won’t make any for 2021...


all this talk is just speculation- no one knows until after March 19

May cause a delay and pushing you into the next model year are two entirely different things.

 

[BandofEskimoBrothers]

If your reservation is early enough, you are the one taking supplies and causing delays for others.

All relative

 

[jaruss01]

I don’t know what type of advice you’re expecting if you’re not going to include your reservation date in the post

 

[Vigor]

If your reservation is early enough, you are the one taking supplies and causing delays for others.

All relative

What this guy says, @MillerBuilt

I see alot of people not understanding what commodity constraints means. It means they have 10 apples, 5 oranges, and 8 peaches. But once those fruit are used up... anybody that wants the 11th apple or 6th orange will have to wait for them to ripen and fall off the tree

The black modular top is like rhubarb. It's not in season and won't be in season until September (just an example.. I don't know when rhubarb is really in season) so you have to wait til at least then to get your rhubarb and your apples, oranges, and peaches

 

[MillerBuilt]

I don’t know what type of advice you’re expecting if you’re not going to include your reservation date in the post

7/16. How does your advice change?

 

[ZackDanger]

I don’t know what type of advice you’re expecting if you’re not going to include your reservation date in the post

Reservation date only matters as it relates to the other reservations at his dealership.

His reservation could be November, but if his dealer is telling him he’s “in good shape to get a MY21” allocation number at the dealership, than that’s all that matters.

 

[jaruss01]

7/16. How does your advice change?

So a day 3 reservation?

anyone’s guess - but given the concentration of reservations on Day 1 and Day 2, I would think day 1 = 90% chance, Day 2 = 50/50, Day 3 be happy is you get it.

some day 3 guys didn’t even make the initial allocation cut at all. And that doesn’t factor in any of the projected limited supply options

if your day 3 reservation still has you in the front half of the dealer allocations then you have better odds

just my own guess

 

[DealerInsider]

“Based on your reservation timestamp and our current (estimated) allocation you should be in good shape to get a 21MY. “

We have no clue as of today

 

[DeltaBravo]

https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/threads/my-dealership-said-thread.12769/

 

[Denba1]

Reservation date only matters as it relates to the other reservations at his dealership.

His reservation could be November, but if his dealer is telling him he’s “in good shape to get a MY21” allocation number at the dealership, than that’s all that matters.

I'm August 15th and being told I'm good for '21 based on the dealer's allocation. We'll see.

 

[Drex]

So a day 3 reservation?

anyone’s guess - but given the concentration of reservations on Day 1 and Day 2, I would think day 1 = 90% chance, Day 2 = 50/50, Day 3 be happy is you get it.

some day 3 guys didn’t even make the initial allocation cut at all. And that doesn’t factor in any of the projected limited supply options

if your day 3 reservation still has you in the front half of the dealer allocations then you have better odds

just my own guess

IF the allocations hold at ~30% of reservations (and there are no multiple month long delay on commodities), and there is a 60% conversion rate, you get a 50% allocation to order ratio, that is half of all orders. That will get people deep into September reservations in.


If there is a 50% conversion rate, it is 60% of all orders will have an allocation, that is probably into October as well.

Right now, got a couple of dealers stating between 41 and 68%(IIRC) conversion rate for 2021's. That number will drop as they get later into the reservations. I think you will be surprised at the reservation dates that get a '21. Going to be a heck of a lot later than day 3 reservations.

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