MY23 / 2023 Delivery - Serious or Joking?

[Oceannomad]

There are a few contingency plans in place to ensure that all current reservations are fulfilled before the end of MY2022.

please don’t be loaner Bronco Sports lol

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[MyBroncoNotYours]

Kudos for your dealer telling you you’re #40 in line. I got the total number of reservations but my dealer won’t tell me my place in line

I half think they just gave me a random number because they are one of the top 25 dealers in the US by volume so there’s no way in my mind they don’t have at least 100-150 orders.

 

[MyBroncoNotYours]

Your main way to get an estimate is to figure out what that #40 in line really means. How many total orders do they have, how many were they allocated for 2021 (which tells you how many are ahead of you for ‘22 builds).

Edit: but even then that only gives you a rough idea. For example I’m 120ish in line at my dealer and they have about 100ish ‘21 allocations. Given I’m 2D/BD/SQ/2.7 I’m not expecting to see my Bronco in my driveway until this time next year, maybe a little earlier. 7/25 res FWIW.

Yeah I asked them all that and that’s when they just told me my shot in line. They didn’t tell me out of how many or how many allocations they received. They did tell me I’m a MY22 but I already figured that at the least due to my reservation date and build.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

please don’t be loaner Bronco Sports lol

*Production* related contingency plans.

 

[MyBroncoNotYours]

You can get a pretty good idea if you look at the numbers. They had over 200k reservations prior to the end of 2020, and have continued to take reservations. They had approximately 70% conversion from reservations to orders in March.

The Michigan Assembly Plant has been producing approximately 11k Rangers per month, prior to Bronco production. If they "flip" production and produce 10k Broncos a month, starting in August you have some number by end of year. You've got some "knowns", right.

So, 200k * 70% puts us at 140k orders for 2021 vehicles by March 19.
Producing 10k units a month from August (when they go to full production), is 50k units by end of year. That's about 1/3 of the converted reservations. That puts all converted orders (by March 19) produced by about August/September 2022. So, any reservation not converted by March 19 should begin production sometime around third-quarter 2022. An early 2021 reservation, converted to an order after March 19 should be produced and delivered at the very end of 2022 or beginning 2023.

That's just looking at the knowns. They build them when they have parts, so someone that had a reservation in March and converted right away may get their Bronco first because they have the parts available.

Your build is exactly like mine, 2D Badlands, 2.3/MT, tow, high package. My reservation was early 7/14, converted from reservation to order on the first day. My dealer told me I was in their initial allocation, but with constraints, I may not see my Bronco in 2021. It was important to me to get it in 2021, as a 2021 model, so with all the constraints, hard top issues, I cancelled.

It wouldn't be unreasonable at all that you would see your Bronco in 2023, based on the knowns, but there is really no way of knowing.

Where did you see 200k reservations - the only article I could find did 140k in January and half were inviolable due to constraints.

 

[indio22]

... It wouldn't be unreasonable at all that you would see your Bronco in 2023, based on the knowns, but there is really no way of knowing.

Thanks for the analysis. For me 2023 delivery would be unacceptable.

 

[AcesandEights]

Where did you see 200k reservations - the only article I could find did 140k in January and half were inviolable due to constraints.

Try a Google search for documents/posts from...around October 2020. They had approximately 150k reservations in a few weeks and stopped reporting at about 190k reservations I think in October 2020.

Edited to add

I think you're thinking converted reservations, from reservation to actual orders. 200 * 70% = 140k orders (converted reservations).

Here's one of the first that popped up (October 2020):

https://www.motor1.com/news/450974/ford-190000-bronco-reservations-more-options/

" Regardless of accessories, the Bronco appears to be as popular as ever. Ford previously confirmed 165,000 reservations for the off-roader, with unconfirmed reports saying the total was 230,000. Gruber now confirms over 190,000 reservations are in the books, and while these aren't actual sales yet, there's no denying folks are excited to get behind the Bronco's wheel. " -emphasis added

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

Hate to break it to you but a 2DR is giant constraint with the roof issues.

 

[JeebusCripes]

I was at an auto show a month ago. I got to chatting with one of the corporate guys (not the marketing people) and he told me they are over 300k hand raisers meaning people that submitted a $100 reservation. I’m hopeful that I can get my build by end of 2022. However that’s a lot of vehicles to build assuming they build all 300k.

Also I ordered around when OP did and my dealer did say, “full disclosure because of when you reserved you need to mentally prepare for late 22 or early 23”. That’s all the info I have.

It sounds like others have reports of less reservations. I am only relaying what I was told.

 

[rtaylor]

I’ve been reading comments saying that they expect a MY23/2023 delivery. Is this serious or are people joking?

what do you think?

I think Ford will take whatever steps are necessary to finish the original reservations by the end of 2022. However, we might not like the actions that may be needed. For example, Ford may need to eliminate options (hardtop, 2dr, etc) on low-end MY22 trims. We don't really know how many other supply issues are hidden by the hardtop problem.

 

[uniqueusername]

I’ve been reading comments saying that they expect a MY23/2023 delivery. Is this serious or are people joking?

I placed an order in April (very late obviously) so I don’t expect mine soon but I can’t wait until October 2022 or later. I currently have no car and walk everywhere including work. There are beaches and hikes near me but they are nowhere near walking distance.

I’m fine waiting up to May but beyond that it might be a struggle. I thought about getting a cheap lease while I wait but any short term solution is a waste of money.

From what I understand, there’s still only about 140K preorders but that number is from January. If full production starts in August and presuming 10K units/mo by June 100K will have been produced. I don’t have a constraining build I believe so I would expect even with my late order I might get it earlier than some.

2dr
Badlands
2.3L Man
High Pkg
(Tow and Roof rails but those are short term constraints)
My dealer is a high volume dealer for Ford but somehow I’m only #40 in line (they didn’t tell me out of how many).

what do you think?

My .02...

No one knows for sure, people saying late 22 into 23 are speculating based on FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). There is not a lot of concrete info available so people are reading what they want to out to the tea leaves (internet rumors) that are circulating.

My dealer told me up front, if you want a 2DR you're looking at December 2021 - February 2022 timeframe because of the hardtop. Until I get something official from Ford I have no reason to doubt that assessment.

Supply chain issues, commodity constraints, workforce problems are not going to be permanent. Eventually Ford will work though these issues and will crank these out in high numbers.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Hate to break it to you but a 2DR is giant constraint with the roof issues.

And issues with the 2dr floorpan supplier.

 

[indio22]

I was at an auto show a month ago. I got to chatting with one of the corporate guys (not the marketing people) and he told me they are over 300k hand raisers meaning people that submitted a $100 reservation. I’m hopeful that I can get my build by end of 2022. However that’s a lot of vehicles to build assuming they build all 300k.

Also I ordered around when OP did and my dealer did say, “full disclosure because of when you reserved you need to mentally prepare for late 22 or early 23”. That’s all the info I have.

It sounds like others have reports of less reservations. I am only relaying what I was told.

That's not sounding good at all. I'm driving out to Colorado soon - in our Kia. That scenario will not be happening again next summer. I'll either be on the trails in a new Bronco, or some other 4x4.

Haven't even seen a two door Bronco in person yet, much less test driven one. Man, this looks like the weekend I start putting alternate contingency plans in place.

 

[reidski29]

Ya I wouldn't buy into that. I actually don't have a reservation but plan on a MY22 or MY23 and I don't think there is anyway Ford would let those reservations holders get that far out.

 

[Bronco4lyfe85]

And issues with the 2dr floorpan supplier.

WHAT?!?! I’m so over this entire process.

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