[Updated] 300 MIC tops produced per day, but still constrained

[John Auer]

No I don't think they are they same company... Webasto makes the Bronco tops.

I can’t remember where I read it, but it was on one of the 6g forums, that Webasto makes the Jeep hard tops. It really doesn’t matter. I just hope Ford gets this too issue behind them.

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[Antimatter outer banks]

I think it was Karen. Did Desiree say anything similar?

Watch out for those crazy ass Karen’s

 

[dbeyers]

I can’t remember where I read it, but it was on one of the 6g forums, that Webasto makes the Jeep hard tops. It really doesn’t matter. I just hope Ford gets this too issue behind them.

Webasto is to open a second plant in Michigan by April. I saw that 2 door Broncos are the most constrained item at 17%. Hopefully some of that is lack of 2 door tops and will be relieved soon. That’s kind of a weird number - not sure how they calculate that because it’s not over 100% of production like MIC tops. As 2 doors are only about 25% of the order mix 17% of 25% is pretty small. If the 17% is to be compared with the 25% then it’s not so far off at 8% difference.

 

[dbeyers]

I think you have bigger issues than tow, Wildtrak is only at 19%, tow is at 30%

I wonder about that two door availability of 17%. Is that adjusted to reflect the idea that two doors are only about 25% of orders, or does that mean two doors are 17% of the 25%, about 4%???? I hope not the latter.

 

[DreamFolise]

I wonder about that two door availability of 17%. Is that adjusted to reflect the idea that two doors are only about 25% of orders, or does that mean two doors are 17% of the 25%, about 4%???? I hope not the latter.

The way it was explained to me with your example would mean only 17% of all 2 door OPEN ORDERS will be available, BUT then you have to account for other "sins". My dealer is pretty good and even he said he really doesn't know how it works when you have multiple sins.

 

[dbeyers]

The way it was explained to me with your example would mean only 17% of all 2 door OPEN ORDERS will be available, BUT then you have to account for other "sins". My dealer is pretty good and even he said he really doesn't know how it works when you have multiple sins.

I am guessing you mean available at any point in time … if you start to overlay sins it might work like probability where you multiply to get a composite availability which is pretty freaking low. 17% of all open 2 door orders is about 4% of all open orders.

I don’t know but that doesn’t seem right - it should be stated on the basis of all open orders to be consistent and allow for comparison. For my sanity I’m going to ignore what your dealer told you. However, the overlay effect is probably real. Though even that still confuses me - I think the real trick is if I have 3 constrained parts and I can choose to use them to build 2 vehicles or 1 (assuming everything else is a tie) which does the algorithm choose? Probably the 2 which means highly constrained vehicles have a big disadvantage. I am not sure sure monthly allocation is as big a deal as many make it out to be - my dealer is not even getting his full allocation monthly as production is too low to even allow for that. I spoke to another dealer whose allocation is 1 a month and he has been getting that - BFD!

 

[phocion]

NAT (national contraints) is the maximum percentage of overall production that Ford can support for that part. So if it says 17% and the open order book percentage is 25%, that means a deficit of 8%. You could also think of it as: Ford can produce 68% (17/25) of the 2 door Broncos it would produce if there were no constraints on parts and if it was simply producing Broncos in proportion to how many were ordered.

Do we have a date associated with this list?

Incidentally I suspect the overall US order book is probably 30% or higher 2 door, after all these months of production being heavily weighted toward 4 door softies.

 

[phocion]

By the way, if that list is up to date, it demonstrates how complex figuring out what to drop can be, because so many different parts are constrained.

For example, if the mod bumper is at 36% available, on paper that's actually a massive constraint -- way more than 50% of orders had it.

But what if the overwhelming majority of mod bumper folks have other constraints too? Even if mod wasn't constrained, it might still be on fewer than 36% of produced Broncos, simply because the builds that included it are being blocked by other parts.

So if your only "sin" was the modular bumper, you would have no problem getting built (in my scenario, anyway), and wouldn't particularly benefit from dropping it, even though on paper it looks like a huge constraint.

 

[Phead]

Did you catch her name? I talked to someone that seemed (I hope) knowledgeable. I want to say her name was Desiree, but could be mistaken.

My ford dealer was great and said sit back and relaxe it’s gonna be delayed about 2 months but don’t change a thing or it can be delayed even longer and he was right just got mine 4 weeks week’s ago earlier then expected

 

[66GT]

I am guessing you mean available at any point in time … if you start to overlay sins it might work like probability where you multiply to get a composite availability which is pretty freaking low. 17% of all open 2 door orders is about 4% of all open orders.

I don’t know but that doesn’t seem right - it should be stated on the basis of all open orders to be consistent and allow for comparison. For my sanity I’m going to ignore what your dealer told you. However, the overlay effect is probably real. Though even that still confuses me - I think the real trick is if I have 3 constrained parts and I can choose to use them to build 2 vehicles or 1 (assuming everything else is a tie) which does the algorithm choose? Probably the 2 which means highly constrained vehicles have a big disadvantage. I am not sure sure monthly allocation is as big a deal as many make it out to be - my dealer is not even getting his full allocation monthly as production is too low to even allow for that. I spoke to another dealer whose allocation is 1 a month and he has been getting that - BFD!

I've got 8 things on that list (2dr Basesquatch).

The good news is that it only makes sense that some of those NAT constraints go together (i.e., cover multiple sins).

For example, any 2dr Sasquatch should just be covered by:
+ 2dr Adv 4x4 (E5C) 17%
(Concur with @phocion prob >30% take)
+ Sasquatch 40%
(~50% take)

It should not be constrained by.
- MIC top (E5C) covered since all 2drs are MIC (47%)
- Full time 4WD (E5C) covered by Sas (64%)
- Front locker covered in Sas (41% - even states included in Sas)

My "standalone" sins are then just:
+ 2.7L 40% (~ 65% take)
+ Modular front bumper 36% (50%+ take)
+ Safari bar 15% (??% take)

It would be real nice if we knew the actual take rates. The data here on B6G (IIRC) is probably as good as we'll find anywhere.

So I think that leaves me with 5 total sins. Not good, but better than 8. As long as Ford doesn't bundle constraints like the VA bundles disability percentages, I'll hold tight at 5 and wait it out. (Vets know exactly what I mean.)

Not going to change my order just to get something I don't really want - faster. I personally just don't get that thinking. I see multiple sin vehicles getting scheduled every cycle. With reservation/order dates, walk-in orders, and dealer allocations figured in, it's a freaking lottery anyway.

 

[Efthreeoh]

By the way, if that list is up to date, it demonstrates how complex figuring out what to drop can be, because so many different parts are constrained.

For example, if the mod bumper is at 36% available, on paper that's actually a massive constraint -- way more than 50% of orders had it.

But what if the overwhelming majority of mod bumper folks have other constraints too? Even if mod wasn't constrained, it might still be on fewer than 36% of produced Broncos, simply because the builds that included it are being blocked by other parts.

So if your only "sin" was the modular bumper, you would have no problem getting built (in my scenario, anyway), and wouldn't particularly benefit from dropping it, even though on paper it looks like a huge constraint.

Then add in dealership allocation into the calculus, and maybe reservation timestamp.

 

[JB4Bronco]

IDK if any of this is true or not. As a dealer, I've been placing orders for Broncos with the soft top and they've scheduled in a matter of days, while hard tops sit and sit and sit unscheduled. Hopefully it won't be the case soon, but if you aren't firmly favoring the hard top, I WOULD switch to a soft top despite what one customer service woman has said. Real world experience has told me that unless thousands of hard tops start scheduling right now, this is not true.

Any of these new orders badlands or wildtrak with soft top? Wondering how long your seeing for a new badlands or wiltrak with soft top to get scheduled now a days?

 

[Bullitt]

Esteban (Bronco Nation Live) confirmed that the MIC top is still a constrained item.

 

[iBrad81]

The OP needs to update the front page so everyone doesn't get the wrong information anymore and people start switching their orders

 

[da_jokker]

By the way, if that list is up to date, it demonstrates how complex figuring out what to drop can be, because so many different parts are constrained.

For example, if the mod bumper is at 36% available, on paper that's actually a massive constraint -- way more than 50% of orders had it.

But what if the overwhelming majority of mod bumper folks have other constraints too? Even if mod wasn't constrained, it might still be on fewer than 36% of produced Broncos, simply because the builds that included it are being blocked by other parts.

So if your only "sin" was the modular bumper, you would have no problem getting built (in my scenario, anyway), and wouldn't particularly benefit from dropping it, even though on paper it looks like a huge constraint.

Exactly and the best decision for Ford would be to only build Broncos with one to two constraints so they can get more vehicles actually built.

It makes no sense to build one Bronco with five sins instead of building five Broncos with one sin.

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