NOT MAKING THE DEALERSHIP BRONCO ALLOCATION CUT...What happens NOW?

[DealerInsider]

@Administrator -This might be a great guide to post up top. @DealerInsider , is this something Ford gave you guys?

yes, from a FORD pdf

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[Jr87mustang]

Thank you all for your gracious replies... Thank you.
-tahotrvlr

What dealer are you at?

 

[dgorsett]

From the submitted orders thread only 45% are ordering a top that is even available (MIC or soft) and 58% are ordering Sasquatch. This means that fewer than 50% of current orders can be delivered 'early'. Then apply a more reasonable 50% conversion rate (rather than Ford's 70%) and it means Ford will only have to build 50000 Broncos to satisfy doable configurations.

So long as you want a Mic or Soft top you're golden and no Sas will help also. Keep your reservation and convert, see where things fall in May!

 

[pan-y-cerveza]

From the submitted orders thread only 45% are ordering a top that is even available (MIC or soft) and 58% are ordering Sasquatch. This means that fewer than 50% of current orders can be delivered 'early'. Then apply a more reasonable 50% conversion rate (rather than Ford's 70%) and it means Ford will only have to build 50000 Broncos to satisfy doable configurations.

So long as you want a Mic or Soft top you're golden and no Sas will help also. Keep your reservation and convert, see where things fall in May!

I've been banking on this.

My build has zero of the "deadly six," not choosing any delayed items, and I'm second reservation at my dealer. I'm reasonably confident I'll get a 2021, even with a July 30th reservation.

 

[dgorsett]

I've been banking on this.

My build has zero of the "deadly six," not choosing any delayed items, and I'm second reservation at my dealer. I'm reasonably confident I'll get a 2021, even with a July 30th reservation.

Yep, the only constrained thing in my build is 2 door, but I'm 7-14 so I 'spose they'll have enough for that.

My dealer just let me know I'm #3 out of 35 so I'm on top of the world.

I see in the order submission thread tops that are actually available are gaining, but my general point stands.

 

[Vigor]

Ctrl + C, Ctrl + V:

All of you who think you just missed the allocation cut-off or are on the bubble need to go ahead and submit anyhow. I gave a more real world example to our Texas group but it applies here and to all as well. A bit of math for you:

Little Johnny reserved his Bronco on 7/15 at 8am, is number 160 at Brand X dealership, and is upset he is not going to get a MY21 Bronco.

Brand X dealer reservations prior to 9/18 = 300
Estimated dealer allocations = 90 (it has been determined that all dealers received 30% of their pre 9/18 reservations)
Estimated conversion rate per Ford = 70% (all of us here assume it will be much lower)
Estimated buyers wanting MY21 = 80% (based on some internal surveys 20% are wanting to wait for MY22 available options)

If Lil Johnny does not care to have any of the MY22 options and submits his order to Brand X dealership, will he receive a MY21?

The answer is: Yes!*

With only a 70% conversion rate before him, Lil Johnny becomes #112 on the list. (160 x 0.7 = 112)
With only 80% of those converted buyers wanting a MY21, Lil Johnny becomes #90 (112 x .8 =90)
Now, Lil Johnny can sit back and relax and wait until Q4 for his MY21 Bronco arrive.

*Disclaimer (and must be read fast in radio lawyer voice): assuming an equal conversion rate across all dealerships and not taking into account the other 50% of the allocation formula (competing sales and national sales) which we have no way of accounting for at this time. Also assumes that Ford can build the 60k units they said they could for MY21 and does not drastically reduce that number. Also does not assume a Covid factor for there is no telling how that will affect the supply chain.

This man actually did the math

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