5280Bronco

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Anyone hearing about dealers getting previews today for tomorrow's pickings? Curious if there is enough data on that front to gauge how quiet of a day it will be tomorrow....or I could just wait until tomorrow like a normal human being.
They would have seen previews yesterday. No word from any dealers i have seen. This clean up week really doesn't seem to include any new scheduling. Unless you are an FE, gotta wait two weeks till our next chance.
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Anyone hearing about dealers getting previews today for tomorrow's pickings? Curious if there is enough data on that front to gauge how quiet of a day it will be tomorrow....or I could just wait until tomorrow like a normal human being.
Email I got this morning said no scheduling 4/29 on Bronco. Might see a couple that got cut from last week's preview pop back in, but I don't think anyone's seeing emails tomorrow.

I know it gets thrown around on here about inventory levels and all, but people really have no idea how bad the situation is at Ford right now. It's going to be an ugly, ugly summer for production.
 

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Yeah. Hopefully not pushed out incredibly so. Still have fingers crossed for delivery by Sept 1.

Interestingly, when i went to the road show event a few days ago, there were 3 other people with sasquatch reservations made very late at night / early morning during the reveal. Same as myself. Between the 4 of us, none had received build dates.
 

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Nope, absolutely wrong. Every Ford vehicle has dealer allocation and the Bronco was never going to be any different.
 
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A

A couple things. Why or how does dealer allocation come into play when they’re pulling orders? Maybe I’m just missing something there cause it sounds like some dealers will get priority. Second, what does “clean up” mean?
Sorry for the late response but one of the other guys can clarify clean up. I'm a fixed op guy and avoid the other side of the wall when all possible.
Now that we've gone though 5 evolutions with Bronco reservation, ordering, capacity, commodity and allocation I've got a comments. First, commodities have always been a limiting factor, probably more than production capacity. Ford sets the number of vehicles they are going to produce in a set time period which then get funneled down from the market areas to dealers. If your sales zone is selling the heck out of Escapes they will allot you more Escapes. If your days supply of F150s is high (ton on the lot not sold during the snapshot) even though its a fast mover, you aren't going to get the same allocation of "stock" as a dealer down the road that is selling everything they can get their hands on.

So the current Ford building model is capacity, commodity, distribution and control of number of builds they choose. Most of this is stuff is pretty tightly and regulated by the manufacturers and normal operating practices prior to the 'ronas.

When they announced Bronco the assumption was they were going to get around 80K reservations. If that would have held, even with the multiple models and trim levels and supply chain problems last year we can probably all agree they could have probably met the first year demand. Ford probably assumed most dealers would get 10-20 average with some bigger places 100+ which would have still been doable. Obviously it didn't go down that way and it still bewilders the hell out of me they were so out of touch with demand forecasts.

Once the reservation system opened, something big changed. Ford allowed customers to reserve models with no built in constraint backstops and in my opinion, too many models. Looking back we probably needed 3 models (2 and 4 door) with 3 trim levels and more a-la-carte options. If everyone would have reserved WT, BL or B models they still could have only built so many because of supplier constraints. There was no emergency stop built into the reservation process or clear communication about the possibility they can't build more than 60-80K. What they got was a good problem that caused bigger problems. Remember, they only planned for a mix of 60,000-80,000 for '21 and probably had adequate tier 1 supply to handle that.

What do they do now? You have 150% more orders than you do capacity or supplies, a mix of vehicles and options you have no control of, continuing global supply disruption and 175,000 pissed off people wanting what they ordered, now. All of the variables Ford exerted a lot of control over now are out the window and it's free for all. They told us from early that they wanted seed distribution of Broncos across the country, for optics and to try and be as fair as possible to customers dealers. Even with the best intentions this is no win for anyone including Ford, at least in the near term.

Ford only has so many Bronco bodies, powertrain combos, trims and accessories for the 60-80K they can build for '21. We have not been told how much of each commodity the initial orders were for or what the supplier's capacity is. If I can only get enough stuff to schedule 3,000 of a specific build and I have 9,000 orders wanting that combo how do you determine who get's built? If they are trying to be fair and spread it out they will survey the dealer body for that combo, how they are distributed throughout the markets, regions, zones and dealers, then time stamp of the customer with that time stamp. This isn't the plan they originally communicated so what do you do, build what you can, albeit out of "order" or not schedule production because someone with a later time might be built before an earlier stamp?

Our original allocation was supposed to be about 30% of our converted orders. We also heard if you converted more than 50 you might get extra or if your conversion % was north of 90% you might get a few extra. From what I've seen on these boards some dealers have gotten well over 30%, some that had 5 may have been given 4. The only thing we had control over was a priority order, everything else Ford set. Some of the formula was registrations of competitive makes in the marker area, sales of certain vehicle lines and overall conversions. Ford doesn't show us the math so all of this is speculation base on everything that has happened up to this point.

Sorry for the long response.
 

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Sorry for the late response but one of the other guys can clarify clean up. I'm a fixed op guy and avoid the other side of the wall when all possible.
Now that we've gone though 5 evolutions with Bronco reservation, ordering, capacity, commodity and allocation I've got a comments. First, commodities have always been a limiting factor, probably more than production capacity. Ford sets the number of vehicles they are going to produce in a set time period which then get funneled down from the market areas to dealers. If your sales zone is selling the heck out of Escapes they will allot you more Escapes. If your days supply of F150s is high (ton on the lot not sold during the snapshot) even though its a fast mover, you aren't going to get the same allocation of "stock" as a dealer down the road that is selling everything they can get their hands on.

So the current Ford building model is capacity, commodity, distribution and control of number of builds they choose. Most of this is stuff is pretty tightly and regulated by the manufacturers and normal operating practices prior to the 'ronas.

When they announced Bronco the assumption was they were going to get around 80K reservations. If that would have held, even with the multiple models and trim levels and supply chain problems last year we can probably all agree they could have probably met the first year demand. Ford probably assumed most dealers would get 10-20 average with some bigger places 100+ which would have still been doable. Obviously it didn't go down that way and it still bewilders the hell out of me they were so out of touch with demand forecasts.

Once the reservation system opened, something big changed. Ford allowed customers to reserve models with no built in constraint backstops and in my opinion, too many models. Looking back we probably needed 3 models (2 and 4 door) with 3 trim levels and more a-la-carte options. If everyone would have reserved WT, BL or B models they still could have only built so many because of supplier constraints. There was no emergency stop built into the reservation process or clear communication about the possibility they can't build more than 60-80K. What they got was a good problem that caused bigger problems. Remember, they only planned for a mix of 60,000-80,000 for '21 and probably had adequate tier 1 supply to handle that.

What do they do now? You have 150% more orders than you do capacity or supplies, a mix of vehicles and options you have no control of, continuing global supply disruption and 175,000 pissed off people wanting what they ordered, now. All of the variables Ford exerted a lot of control over now are out the window and it's free for all. They told us from early that they wanted seed distribution of Broncos across the country, for optics and to try and be as fair as possible to customers dealers. Even with the best intentions this is no win for anyone including Ford, at least in the near term.

Ford only has so many Bronco bodies, powertrain combos, trims and accessories for the 60-80K they can build for '21. We have not been told how much of each commodity the initial orders were for or what the supplier's capacity is. If I can only get enough stuff to schedule 3,000 of a specific build and I have 9,000 orders wanting that combo how do you determine who get's built? If they are trying to be fair and spread it out they will survey the dealer body for that combo, how they are distributed throughout the markets, regions, zones and dealers, then time stamp of the customer with that time stamp. This isn't the plan they originally communicated so what do you do, build what you can, albeit out of "order" or not schedule production because someone with a later time might be built before an earlier stamp?

Our original allocation was supposed to be about 30% of our converted orders. We also heard if you converted more than 50 you might get extra or if your conversion % was north of 90% you might get a few extra. From what I've seen on these boards some dealers have gotten well over 30%, some that had 5 may have been given 4. The only thing we had control over was a priority order, everything else Ford set. Some of the formula was registrations of competitive makes in the marker area, sales of certain vehicle lines and overall conversions. Ford doesn't show us the math so all of this is speculation base on everything that has happened up to this point.

Sorry for the long response.
Awesome information thanks.
 

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Some of the formula was registrations of competitive makes in the marker area, sales of certain vehicle lines and overall conversions. Ford doesn't show us the math so all of this is speculation base on everything that has happened up to this point.
Excellent and thorough response. I especially like this thought and was wondering if that was a factor. I live in the heart of Jeep country and every other vehicle on the road around here seems to be a wrangler. People love their Jeeps here so I'm sure Ford wants to flood this area to try and convert a lot of diehards. Makes sense to me. Or it might be a little bit of wishful thinking.... 🤞
 

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Sorry for the late response but one of the other guys can clarify clean up. I'm a fixed op guy and avoid the other side of the wall when all possible.
Now that we've gone though 5 evolutions with Bronco reservation, ordering, capacity, commodity and allocation I've got a comments. First, commodities have always been a limiting factor, probably more than production capacity. Ford sets the number of vehicles they are going to produce in a set time period which then get funneled down from the market areas to dealers. If your sales zone is selling the heck out of Escapes they will allot you more Escapes. If your days supply of F150s is high (ton on the lot not sold during the snapshot) even though its a fast mover, you aren't going to get the same allocation of "stock" as a dealer down the road that is selling everything they can get their hands on.

So the current Ford building model is capacity, commodity, distribution and control of number of builds they choose. Most of this is stuff is pretty tightly and regulated by the manufacturers and normal operating practices prior to the 'ronas.

When they announced Bronco the assumption was they were going to get around 80K reservations. If that would have held, even with the multiple models and trim levels and supply chain problems last year we can probably all agree they could have probably met the first year demand. Ford probably assumed most dealers would get 10-20 average with some bigger places 100+ which would have still been doable. Obviously it didn't go down that way and it still bewilders the hell out of me they were so out of touch with demand forecasts.

Once the reservation system opened, something big changed. Ford allowed customers to reserve models with no built in constraint backstops and in my opinion, too many models. Looking back we probably needed 3 models (2 and 4 door) with 3 trim levels and more a-la-carte options. If everyone would have reserved WT, BL or B models they still could have only built so many because of supplier constraints. There was no emergency stop built into the reservation process or clear communication about the possibility they can't build more than 60-80K. What they got was a good problem that caused bigger problems. Remember, they only planned for a mix of 60,000-80,000 for '21 and probably had adequate tier 1 supply to handle that.

What do they do now? You have 150% more orders than you do capacity or supplies, a mix of vehicles and options you have no control of, continuing global supply disruption and 175,000 pissed off people wanting what they ordered, now. All of the variables Ford exerted a lot of control over now are out the window and it's free for all. They told us from early that they wanted seed distribution of Broncos across the country, for optics and to try and be as fair as possible to customers dealers. Even with the best intentions this is no win for anyone including Ford, at least in the near term.

Ford only has so many Bronco bodies, powertrain combos, trims and accessories for the 60-80K they can build for '21. We have not been told how much of each commodity the initial orders were for or what the supplier's capacity is. If I can only get enough stuff to schedule 3,000 of a specific build and I have 9,000 orders wanting that combo how do you determine who get's built? If they are trying to be fair and spread it out they will survey the dealer body for that combo, how they are distributed throughout the markets, regions, zones and dealers, then time stamp of the customer with that time stamp. This isn't the plan they originally communicated so what do you do, build what you can, albeit out of "order" or not schedule production because someone with a later time might be built before an earlier stamp?

Our original allocation was supposed to be about 30% of our converted orders. We also heard if you converted more than 50 you might get extra or if your conversion % was north of 90% you might get a few extra. From what I've seen on these boards some dealers have gotten well over 30%, some that had 5 may have been given 4. The only thing we had control over was a priority order, everything else Ford set. Some of the formula was registrations of competitive makes in the marker area, sales of certain vehicle lines and overall conversions. Ford doesn't show us the math so all of this is speculation base on everything that has happened up to this point.

Sorry for the long response.

But here is one wrench in your concept foundation. Ford never shut off the reservations...still have not. If they had planned on only so many, and then got hit with the .. oh shit ... They would have turn off the reservations feature, told the world they got an overwhelming interest and will truly be able to fulfill reservations before dealer stuck.

Yet they continue to take reservations, continue to say they will prioritize them over dealer stock (which we know is a flat out lie).
 

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In my view Ford should have followed through with what they represented as the process. Direct to consumer by reservation time stamp and parts allocation. It should not have mattered what dealer sell what #'s of any other Ford. The demand regions of the country would have sorted themselves out by the people who were onboard early timestamped and converted their reservation to an order. The only reason I picked a dealership was because I had to, there was no determination at the time of reservation for which dealership I chose other than distance from my home. Placating dealerships was an error in my opinion. Ford came to the people for reservations, we responded and they threw us a curveball by dealing out from the bottom of the deck to support favored dealerships.
 
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But here is one wrench in your concept foundation. Ford never shut off the reservations...still have not. If they had planned on only so many, and then got hit with the .. oh shit ... They would have turn off the reservations feature, told the world they got an overwhelming interest and will truly be able to fulfill reservations before dealer stuck.

Yet they continue to take reservations, continue to say they will prioritize them over dealer stock (which we know is a flat out lie).
I wouldn't say a flaw in the theory because why shut it off now? If you are selling something do you worry about orders you already have or the ones you don't, and want? Call it greed or wishful thinking on Ford's part. We already know a ton of folks are going to wait for '22s. The question is, would they have orders in today, if the system would've shut reservations off when they hit capacity? Maybe but they still have a lot more soft and firm commitments than if they turned it off early. The idea of under promise and over deliver is not in play here.

My guess (hope) is in the next several months production will be a little ahead of schedule, commodity constraints will loosen up and more deliveries happen sooner than expected. This is best case. Ford says they are booked on Bronco probably through most of '22 so any orders that come on at this point, assuming current '22 orders follow through, will extend the problem of dealer "stock". Unless there are lease trade ins or trade in general, I don't see us getting a legit regular supply of stock units before the '23 model year. This is all good for Ford in one respect but doesn't help dealers if we are trying to turn a Jeep sale into a BR sale with nothing to do show and tell with.

Again, all theory based on observations over the course of this launch.
 
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In my view Ford should have followed through with what they represented as the process. Direct to consumer by reservation time stamp and parts allocation. It should not have mattered what dealer sell what #'s of any other Ford. The demand regions of the country would have sorted themselves out by the people who were onboard early timestamped and converted their reservation to an order. The only reason I picked a dealership was because I had to, there was no determination at the time of reservation for which dealership I chose other than distance from my home. Placating dealerships was an error in my opinion. Ford came to the people for reservations, we responded and they threw us a curveball by dealing out from the bottom of the deck to support favored dealerships.
How so? Ideally they would have the capacity, parts and time to build them in order but that's not the reality of the situation. Currently we are at the "build what you can" stage.

If you can prove Ford gave preferential treatment to "favored" dealers I would be very interested to hear it. They always tell us we are their favorite and got no more allocation than they originally estimated. I don't think Ford planned for how this has gone down so far because all that happens is you end up looking bad and constantly have to make excuses and keep changing the plans. Not good for them or the customer in the long run. Simply, they underestimated demand, kept playing the slot that keeps paying and now that the well intended plan has going in the toilet, can only build what they can. If anything this should be a lesson on how to not do this ever again. If it wasn't a new product with pent up demand, it could really be a scar on the brand.
 

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How so? Ideally they would have the capacity, parts and time to build them in order but that's not the reality of the situation. Currently we are at the "build what you can" stage.

If you can prove Ford gave preferential treatment to "favored" dealers I would be very interested to hear it. They always tell us we are their favorite and got no more allocation than they originally estimated. I don't think Ford planned for how this has gone down so far because all that happens is you end up looking bad and constantly have to make excuses and keep changing the plans. Not good for them or the customer in the long run. Simply, they underestimated demand, kept playing the slot that keeps paying and now that the well intended plan has going in the toilet, can only build what they can. If anything this should be a lesson on how to not do this ever again. If it wasn't a new product with pent up demand, it could really be a scar on the brand.
My point is the dealership should not have mattered. Orders came in sorted by Reservation timestamp. Built in order of full build parts availability and timestamp. Dealership only receives to deliver to buyer. If one dealership got the first 1,000 builds based on timestamp, so be it. Buyers would have understood that because that's the way it was presented.
 
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Just got some Bronco info from our sales zone manager. I'm relaying some of this because some of you might be in this situation and don't know. I would contact your dealer if you aren't sure if your order falls into this category.

"After the latest roof announcements, we still have a number of orders that are not buildable in WBDO. Currently 41% of our order bank has a compatibility error or is showing on material hold."
Not sure if this is zone specifically or all orders in general.
"Many of these orders have either the Black-Painted Modular Hard Top or Dual Roofs that will not be available for the 21MY. We are requesting that you update and submit these orders, by May 11th...."
"You will need to review every order, regardless of timestamp location, to ensure accuracy. Inaccurate orders will require cancellation - which causes the customer to lose their timestamp, and we will not be able to do this moving forward".
 
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My point is the dealership should not have mattered. Orders came in sorted by Reservation timestamp. Built in order of full build parts availability and timestamp. Dealership only receives to deliver to buyer. If one dealership got the first 1,000 builds based on timestamp, so be it. Buyers would have understood that because that's the way it was presented.
I agree but the plan changed and they are trying to build what they can. Beside the plan going to hades the big issue is communication. If they would have came out early and set the tone there may not be as many upset customers or dealers. Beside the one or two priority orders the folks in the crystal palace were kind enough to bestow upon the lowly dealer body, we have no idea how the cake is being made. All we can do is make sure the order is clean, prioritized correctly and if a constraint comes up, it's quickly communicated with the customer and changed if needed.
 
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