Have you been parked in a public space recently?
Judging from the pictures, it looks like the lower part of the spare was bumped and pushed inward, from the amount of space at the top versus the bottom of the spare from the door.
Anyone else have access to your vehicle? A teen or spouse that maybe backed into a garage wall or cinder post in a parking spot?
These doors won't just warp like that on their own, they are over engineered to support the weight of the spare.
Typically, the most plausible explanation is the right one. If it were me, I'd be looking into if someone bumped into my car or my car bumped into something.