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Wolfpack

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Depending on when they open up in Feb there could be 4 rounds of scheduling before then. Figure in Nov they will schedule for January, Dec for Feb, Jan for March and then Feb for April. That is potentially 40k Broncos based on the average of 11.5k units built per month and figuring in a plant shut down. My napkin math shows between 60k and 90k eligible orders for MY23 (230k reservations minus 170k built to date plus walk-ins) of which only a fraction (half?, two thirds?) will convert and of which about 20k(?) have already been scheduled for MY23. Again, napkin math and speculation on my part but I don't think the backlog is as big as everyone thinks it is.
Great points. I wasn't thinking about scheduling in the coming months going beyond February. That would definately put a dent in the backlog. Wish we knew how many orders are outstanding and have been converted. Selfishly I don't want a new February walk in order getting a Heritage with a Mod top before me. I've waited a long time, like others, for that mod top. We shall see.
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vrtical

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my low VIN number 23 order has already moved out an entire month, I think its hogwash to expect putting any meaningful dent in first year reservation backlogs which we all know are not 4 door soft top big bends, its a snails pace at best.
 

HishamF

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The higher the trim the more margin FoMoCo makes. It would be financially irresponsible to 'push' lower trims if the parts supply is available either on site or within scheduled arrival.
Not necessarily, higher trims need more chips, components, and work to get it done. Margin between the trims isnt as different as you think. If anything im pretty sure the base model probably has the highest margin since it basically only has the basics, and of course being the easiest to build.
 

HishamF

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my low VIN number 23 order has already moved out an entire month, I think its hogwash to expect putting any meaningful dent in first year reservation backlogs which we all know are not 4 door soft top big bends, its a snails pace at best.
Let’s assume the banks open Feb 2023. Is it realistic to expect a MY23 Bronco to be built by the end of the year? Or are we basically ordering MY24 Broncos at that point?

I’d like to get one when they have a model refresh, is it still looking like MY25 will be when the changes happen?
Nov 21 will be the last day to convert your previous orders. Ford will know then whether Feb23 will be a good window for new orders. Im guessing 75% of those who had previous orders have converted to new ones, and many who have converted have already received their build dates, I am somewhat confident that new order holders will get their broncos faster than previous eyars, especially with supply chains easing up.
 

BlueBronco

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Pretty sure there is enough in the queue to run out MY23 with no more orders, but it seems Ford likes to build backlog, its good for the stock portfolio.
my low VIN number 23 order has already moved out an entire month, I think its hogwash to expect putting any meaningful dent in first year reservation backlogs which we all know are not 4 door soft top big bends, its a snails pace at best.
I am curious, how big do you think the current backlog is??
 

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nwGTS

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Not necessarily, higher trims need more chips, components, and work to get it done. Margin between the trims isnt as different as you think. If anything im pretty sure the base model probably has the highest margin since it basically only has the basics, and of course being the easiest to build.
Those 'chips and components' have a higher total margin than the total margin of parts shared between the base and other trims. 'work' is hourly on the line which doesn't stop moving. Parts are carted just-in-time to installers. Because of the opportunity cost of time when upgraded parts would be installed, it costs more in 'real' labor time to build a base.

This isn't something I'm simply pontificating. This cost model is shared across the entire large-scale automotive industry.
 

vrtical

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I am curious, how big do you think the current backlog is??
I don't think your math you stated is that far off except Ford is building dealer stock and what they can build which isn't pure back log. I also suspect walk in orders from MY22s are pretty hefty, it was open for what 8 months. Nobody knows numbers outside the first wave but what if the cumulative orders up until MY22 shut off is closer to 300k units (speculating)? I just feel the lag is still more than 10 months. I think we know Ford is still trying to get early 21 orders done, to me there is a continual issue somewhere that is not being addressed or as other tin foil hat theories, the prioritization of those orders is not what we think it is. The discussions have been bleed to death, but they will continue as there isn't any transparency to say otherwise. On another note, its somewhat looking promising that I get an actual Bronco based off my original order date of 1/30/21 two years later. I am the poster child for a business case lol.
 

stuckinohio

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The higher the trim the more margin FoMoCo makes. It would be financially irresponsible to 'push' lower trims if the parts supply is available either on site or within scheduled arrival.
I was/am under the impression that constraints are causing availability issues of high demand parts. I don't deny they want more profits.

I'd like them to ditch their allocation formula and make sure all reservation/current order holders vehicles are built. Then they can open up order banks again for new people.

But I understand they can't/won't do that because of pressure from dealerships, their ability to build meagerly equipped Broncos versus loaded highly desirable vehicles, etc.
 

dingle87

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I was/am under the impression that constraints are causing availability issues of high demand parts. I don't deny they want more profits.

I'd like them to ditch their allocation formula and make sure all reservation/current order holders vehicles are built. Then they can open up order banks again for new people.

But I understand they can't/won't do that because of pressure from dealerships, their ability to build meagerly equipped Broncos versus loaded highly desirable vehicles, etc.
This is exactly why they'll open up to new orders. Their shit high pressure dealers, who don't/didn't have a high volume of reservations want their dealer stock or ability to order for customers they'll hit with ADM. At least that's my take. Good luck everyone.
 

stuckinohio

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This is exactly why they'll open up to new orders. Their shit high pressure dealers, who don't/didn't have a high volume of reservations want their dealer stock or ability to order for customers they'll hit with ADM. At least that's my take. Good luck everyone.
YEP.
 

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WildTrak23

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Out of curiosity, I have an early June MY22 reservation order in line at my dealer. Who says when they open up the ordering again it will be close to the front of their line for his dealership to make into a Money down order. So My ?? would be do the MY22 reservation holders have a chance of getting in before the MY23 "NEW" orders open up? Or is that All going to be at the same time in Feb. 23? He has already had me send in the MY 23 build sheet as an update. I appreciate any insight. Respectively submitted!!
 

22OBX

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February isn't long enough. Unless it's February 2024. There are too many of us who have been waiting too long
They should build another 50k by the end of February, that’s 4 months of production. Surely there isn’t more than 50,000 waiting at this point. That would be over 200,000 produced, right?
 

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Out of curiosity, I have an early June MY22 reservation order in line at my dealer. Who says when they open up the ordering again it will be close to the front of their line for his dealership to make into a Money down order. So My ?? would be do the MY22 reservation holders have a chance of getting in before the MY23 "NEW" orders open up? Or is that All going to be at the same time in Feb. 23? He has already had me send in the MY 23 build sheet as an update. I appreciate any insight. Respectively submitted!!
If I understand this correctly. Your dealer hasn't placed your order yet for MY23 and you're a MY22 order currently? If so, you better convince your dealer to put your order in by Nov 21st. Or it'll get wiped out of the system.

Whether or not you're "ahead" of the new orders placed when they open up the ability to new customers will be up to your dealer and how the priority code orders, along with what your build specs are. If you have a SAS Badlands with all the bells/whistles and tow package, but the walkin 23 order holder puts in for a Big Bend 2.3 softtop, I have a feeling that order might jump you. But in the end it all comes back to dealer allocation and how many units they get allocated each month.

Good luck.
 

nwGTS

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I was/am under the impression that constraints are causing availability issues of high demand parts. I don't deny they want more profits.

I'd like them to ditch their allocation formula and make sure all reservation/current order holders vehicles are built. Then they can open up order banks again for new people.

But I understand they can't/won't do that because of pressure from dealerships, their ability to build meagerly equipped Broncos versus loaded highly desirable vehicles, etc.
Certainly parts constraints adds a variable to the supply side, but it (generally) doesn't change costs. I'm going to put a giant asterisk on that and state that some auto manufacturers will negotiate a higher priority in line with part manufacturers by paying a bump on top of hard goods. So, in some cases costs do increase as has been the case over the past two years. This also assumes raw materials for suppliers hasn't increased nor labor costs which has been thrown out the window over the past two years.

Let's replace 'high demand' with 'over demand'. We're finding that, generally, those over demand parts happen to also fall into the bucket of high margin.

Ford's decision to keep the line moving and build what they can when they can is the best business decision. It, unfortunately, has an unavoidable negative impact on customer sentiment and brand good will. However, not enough negative impact to stop the line.

I could keep going with enough different variables to be a dissertation, but my statement here and your last statement in bold are the gist of it.
 

stuckinohio

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Out of curiosity, I have an early June MY22 reservation order in line at my dealer. Who says when they open up the ordering again it will be close to the front of their line for his dealership to make into a Money down order. So My ?? would be do the MY22 reservation holders have a chance of getting in before the MY23 "NEW" orders open up? Or is that All going to be at the same time in Feb. 23? He has already had me send in the MY 23 build sheet as an update. I appreciate any insight. Respectively submitted!!
For some reason I'm not totally understanding your question and current situation, but I can tell you that:

it's entirely possible that you or anyone has a chance at getting built if your dealer has more allocation than they have orders and you have already placed an order for a MY22 and renewed that order for a MY23. It happened often during 2022 wherein new walk in orders off the street got built very soon after placing their fresh order. Whereas current reservation/order holders still didn't get built due to allocation formulas.

I am hoping that Ford stands by their statement they basically want to clear out existing orders before opening up new orders. BUT I'm not holding my breath on that due to constraints and allocation formulas.
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