Summer '21 order - ETA based on production rates

[AJKitebrder40]

Ok, so.....I'm sure this has been discussed quite a bit, but I figured I'd break it down on one thread to see if my estimates are semi-accurate based on information right now (which obviously is subject to change). I thought I could hold out but my JKU is really starting to have some issues, so waiting until Fall '23 for a Bronco might not be feasible. Build is 4dr. Badlands, 2.3L, Manual, MIC (which I'm not changing if I can help it).

So........my order date was August 13, reservation late July '21. Let's figure there's 150k orders ahead of me, let's assume 10k of those have been built at this point with the MIC delays and catch up on Dirt Mtn.

Assuming no other COVID issues, etc. and a build rate of 8k per month, that's roughly 96k/year factoring in issues/holidays, etc. let's say 90k. That would mean a year and a half from now roughly (assuming that out of the probably 200k+ reservations they have now, they convert 150k or some mix of dealer vehicles, etc.)

That would be Spring '23, is that what we are thinking given the MIC issues, COVID, etc.?

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[indio22]

Ok, so.....I'm sure this has been discussed quite a bit, but I figured I'd break it down on one thread to see if my estimates are semi-accurate based on information right now (which obviously is subject to change). I thought I could hold out but my JKU is really starting to have some issues, so waiting until Fall '23 for a Bronco might not be feasible. Build is 4dr. Badlands, 2.3L, Manual, MIC (which I'm not changing if I can help it).

So........my order date was August 13, reservation late July '21. Let's figure there's 150k orders ahead of me, let's assume 10k of those have been built at this point with the MIC delays and catch up on Dirt Mtn.

Assuming no other COVID issues, etc. and a build rate of 8k per month, that's roughly 96k/year factoring in issues/holidays, etc. let's say 90k. That would mean a year and a half from now roughly (assuming that out of the probably 200k+ reservations they have now, they convert 150k or some mix of dealer vehicles, etc.)

That would be Spring '23, is that what we are thinking given the MIC issues, COVID, etc.?

I reserved/ordered around same time as you. The delivery timeline you suggested is a long ways off. A lot can happen. I'd advise don't put any money down if the delivery date goes out that far, to give yourself options.

 

[AJKitebrder40]

I reserved/ordered around same time as you. The delivery timeline you suggested is a long ways off. A lot can happen. I'd advise don't put any money down if the delivery date goes out that far, to give yourself options.

Yeah, I only have $100 down, just wondering my options, debating ordering a '21 JLU before the order banks close.

 

[Jazer]

There are a lot of factors that come into play - it’s not *just* a timing thing… The availability/constraints of certain components is a main factor, as well as your dealer allocations and where in line you are with your given dealer. No one can give you an ETA at this time. There are first day reservation/first day order holders that haven’t heard a peep yet..

I am a late reservation/order holder (6/21) My specific dealer think based on my build and their allocations I have a good shot of recieving one of their earlier 2022s…. But with that said, I’m not expecting anything in the first 1/2 of 22. If I get lucky, hell yes, but I am not expecting anything for quite awhile.

 

[imstimpy]

So........my order date was August 13, reservation late July '21. Let's figure there's 150k orders ahead of me...

Assuming no other COVID issues, etc...

My order was submitted on 9/1/2021. I've done similar math. Unfortunately, there are so many moving parts.

Assume max capacity is 6,000 per month due to production challenges, then that means they finish the year at ~44,000 units and an annual production rate of ~72,000.
Assume they've hit max capacity at 8,000 per month, then that means they finish the year at ~52,000 units and an annual production rate of ~96,000.
Assume they can incrementally improve production each month through the rest of the year, capping at 12,000 per month, then that means they finish the year at ~62,000 with an annual production rate of of ~144,000.

Given the projected year end production from 44,000 to 62,000, an estimated annual production of 62,000 to 144,000, and a reservation conversion of 150,000, there is a range of ~18 mos to ~7 mos [(150k - 44k / 6k) to (150k - 62k) / 12k] for new orders to be built.

But wait!

The above ignores the known constraints: hard tops.

If MIC 2.0 is not resolved and 100% of production is shifted to soft tops (a meager 9% of the B6G orders tracked), then ~14,000 soft tops have to be produced before new soft top orders are processed.
If MIC 2.0 is in production, but at 50% capacity, then [insert math here].
If MIC 2.0 is in production at 100% capacity then all reservation-based orders can be processed.

And then...

We still have to contend with other existing or not-yet realized pandemic-related constraints (chips, engine pallets), force majeure, logistics failures, etc.

Finally (or rather firstly)
Dealer allocation might arbitrarily shift your build forward or backward.

 

[AJKitebrder40]

Yeah, I'm in my beater, hoping it holds out. I think it will although it keeps throwing curveballs at me. That and I'm torn on leaving Jeep to be honest.......the JK has been a really great vehicle for 15 years for me.

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