Thoughts on pending market crash?

[edgeflyer]

Is Wells Fargo a sign? Do you think we're going to see a crash soon? What indicators would you look for? I've been on the market quite a while, but I know there's some seasoned folks on here. Just curious to hear what others think.

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[72BroncoSand]

Im very concerned. Only been investing big money for about 18 months and doing very well. But feels like any day sh*t is about to hit the fan. Trying to force myself into reducing my portfolios but that is easier said then done.

 

[ColoradoGuy]

If I were in for the short term, I would probably be concerned right now. Long term folks may have some opportunities ahead.

 

[Blksn955.o]

I jumped in on Wells at like 26 last year. I think I will still be ok with that.

Would not shock if there is some pullback but it is still early into the exit of covid opening back up.

 

[PrepVet]

Not certain but probable. The political will in the US is currently to destroy the economy.

 

[Heffe66413]

If I were in for the short term, I would probably be concerned right now. Long term folks may have some opportunities ahead.

I agree- but it depends on your risk tolerance and your age. The closer you are to retirement, the more you need to play it safe. If your younger and concerned, then put half of your funds into very safe investments or even leave it as cash. If the market crashes then you have a buying opportunity.
however with all that being said- not losing money to me is more rewarding potential gains.

 

[Funkdoobiest]

I jumped in on Wells at like 26 last year. I think I will still be ok with that.

Would not shock if there is some pullback but it is still early into the exit of covid opening back up.

I don't think he's referring to Well's price in particular but Well's being the Canary in the Coal mine of a spectacular overall market crash.

 

[khatch]

I apologize in advance for all the numbers but I want to make a point about trying to time the market and/or letting fear of a crash keep you out of the market (long term).

If you take a simple example where the market rises 10% 4 out of 5 years but there will be a 20% drop during one of the 5 years, take a look at the outcomes vs. staying in cash for all 5 years (assuming 1% growth).

I have a family member who got completely out of the market when Trump was elected, which seemed to be emotionally driven, and he missed out on so many years of growth that it is unlikely any crash will ever make the decision the right one. If you want to invest long term, I believe "now" is always the right time to start... clairvoyants may disagree.

if you need invested money soon, for example to buy a Bronco, "get out while the gettings good" makes sense.

Final advice, don't take advice from people like me on the Internet.

Year 1	$ 100.00	-0.2​	-20​	$ 80.00
Year 2	$ 80.00	0.1​	8​	$ 88.00
Year 3	$ 88.00	0.1​	8.8​	$ 96.80
Year 4	$ 96.80	0.1​	9.68​	$ 106.48
Year 5	$ 106.48	0.1​	10.648​	$ 117.13
Year 1	$ 100.00	0.1​	10​	$ 110.00
Year 2	$ 110.00	0.1​	11​	$ 121.00
Year 3	$ 121.00	-0.2​	-24.2​	$ 96.80
Year 4	$ 96.80	0.1​	9.68​	$ 106.48
Year 5	$ 106.48	0.1​	10.648​	$ 117.13
Year 1	$ 100.00	0.1​	10​	$ 110.00
Year 2	$ 110.00	0.1​	11​	$ 121.00
Year 3	$ 121.00	0.1​	12.1​	$ 133.10
Year 4	$ 133.10	0.1​	13.31​	$ 146.41
Year 5	$ 146.41	-0.2​	-29.282​	$ 117.13
CASH
Year 1	$ 100.00	0.01​	1​	$ 101.00
Year 2	$ 101.00	0.01​	1.01​	$ 102.01
Year 3	$ 102.01	0.01​	1.0201​	$ 103.03
Year 4	$ 103.03	0.01​	1.030301​	$ 104.06
Year 5	$ 104.06	0.01​	1.040604​	$ 105.10

 

[edgeflyer]

What a great conversation and no trash talk. My concern right now is I got in early with lots of shares of DPLS and it is finally blooming, but I think it will see .50-1.00 by the end of the year. I hate to pull out now while I'm making awesome gains daily and give up all the shares I have at such a low cost basis. Also hate to lose all the gains I had too. My other stuff I'm good riding the ups and downs like always as I know it will come back eventually. Just curious other seasoned folks thoughts that aren't benefiting from spreading fear tactics. I read that one guy watched the NASDAQ composite vs the 50 sma to view market sentiment.

 

[edgeflyer]

I don't think he's referring to Well's price in particular but Well's being the Canary in the Coal mine of a spectacular overall market crash.

This

 

[Gamecock]

I don’t think a crash is imminent, but a correction probably is. Either way…I don’t know and neither does anyone else, so my firm belief is that everyone should be 75-100% in equities at all times. A lifetime of that has always yielded the best results over a “balanced” approach, or certainly over a super safe retirement approach. I am very, very fortunate that I invested until it hurt in from my early 20s and stayed almost all in stocks…I am mad I have been 5% in cash over the last couple of years…it cost me a “few Broncos”. Anyway, it is non-conventional and not for the weak at heart or for the active managers who want to spread you all over the place and mitigate risk at your expense. The argument for the approach is well laid out here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...est-egg-to-put-into-stocks-all-of-it.amp.html

 

[Username_not_found]

Not certain but probable. The political will in the US is currently to destroy the economy.

What are you doing at 3 in the morning trying to start a political argument on this forum?

 

[Gamecock]

What are you doing at 3 in the morning trying to start a political argument on this forum?

That sounded like an opinion with no personal attack…he wasn’t very argumentative.

 

[Colorado buff]

Short term vs long term. Quality companies vs penny stocks. If you are in quality they always bounce back

 

[doink]

Time in the market>timing the market.

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