Units Produced MY21 & MY22

[KVK]

Basic high level analysis here.
- Reservations >200,000 (any conformation of the actual total?) and still accepting reservations.
- Units produced MY21 60,000-70,000.
- MY22 MAP produces 2,500 units per week. Full production for 52 weeks is 130,000 units.
- I’ll split the difference and estimate 65,000 units MY21 with 130,000 units MY22 = 195,000 units to be built if there aren’t anymore covid supply chain problems or plant shutdowns in CY21.

I understand an estimated 25% of reservations will be canceled. I’ve got a 9/29 reservation. Appears to me I might not make MY22. Correct my numbers and set me straight. Thanks

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[ZackDanger]

Basic high level analysis here.
- Reservations >200,000 (any conformation of the actual total?) and still accepting reservations.
- Units produced MY21 60,000-70,000.
- MY22 MAP produces 2,500 units per week. Full production for 52 weeks is 130,000 units.
- I’ll split the difference and estimate 65,000 units MY21 with 130,000 units MY22 = 195,000 units to be built if there aren’t anymore covid supply chain problems or plant shutdowns in CY21.

I understand an estimated 25% of reservations will be canceled. I’ve got a 9/29 reservation. Appears to me I might not make MY22. Correct my numbers and set me straight. Thanks

You're making a ton of assumptions or compounding rounding errors.

Ford is telling us that we can expect deliveries extending into MY22... I would think with all of their research and planning (their livelihood relies on it), if they think they'll get it done by the end of CY22, that it's safe to believe them...

...And many people here are assuming they're rounding *up* on their conversion rate.

 

[lobbs611]

A very optimistic 75% conversion rate would be roughly 150,000 of your estimated 200,000 reservations. By your guestimations you can make 195,000 in the first 1.5 model years. You would have everyone converted taken care of in MY22 with 45,000 to spare.

A 30% conversion rate would almost guarantee every reservation holder a MY21. A more realistic 40-50% rate would have the converted reservations taken care of sometime in Spring, barring major setbacks for certain popular options.

 

[Ed Morris]

Even if only 25% of the reservation holders drop out, it seems like they should be able to get the rest in by the end of MY22 unless they run into some pretty serious production problems. (Which is always possible, I suppose, but hopefully not likely.)

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