When Will I Get My BRONCO?? - Granger Ford

[Drex]

Ford literally can’t produce enough MY21 Broncos to meet (anticipated) demand, and has stated that many people, particularly late reservation holders, won’t be able to receive their Bronco until MY22...

...and then Ford communicated with the dealers that they think they can only make about 30% of ordered Broncos in MY21, so expect to only see 30% of your orders in MY21, and the rest will follow in MY22...

No. You are conflating reservations with orders, there is not going to be 100% conversion. Even at 70% conversion, which Ford seems to believe will happen and 30% (of reservation numbers) allocations, that means that 43% of expected orders will be allocated. The percentage of allocated orders will rise very quickly if the percentage of conversion drops under 70%

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[ZackDanger]

No. You are conflating reservations with orders, there is not going to be 100% conversion. Even at 70% conversion, which Ford seems to believe will happen and 30% (of reservation numbers) allocations, that means that 43% of expected orders will be allocated. The percentage of allocated orders will rise very quickly if the percentage of conversion drops under 70%

Totally.

I was frantically trying to type that rebuttal before I lost all my passion, and wasn’t being careful about the math or nomenclature.

 

[ATLUTDFAN]

I read this entire thread and I thought about the reasons I went with @Granger Ford for my reservation transfer back in August/September time frame. It was to secure $1000 ($1300 with x-plan pin) under invoice and know that I would not have to pay MSRP, ADM, and stupid bullS*** add ons for my Broncos. I am saving a ton of money on my orders. Most people that transferred to Granger realized the whole process was fraught with financial risk and that Granger was a solid bet.

Is it worth it to me to have a smooth buying experience? Yes!

Is it worth it to me and others to ensure low pricing? Hell yes, some even gave up an early reservation time stamp to get $2000 off invoice to save money.

Only other time I ordered a car and waited 6 months for release was a 2003 Nissan 350z. I happily paid MSRP and put down a $1000 deposit and did not think anything of it. I am older and wiser now and don’t have to be the first person on the block. In my case with FE reservations the difference in price between my Granger deal and paying ADM could be as as much as $6000-$15000 per Bronco.

I don’t currently know their allocation number and it does not matter until the orders are converted; however I am sure anyone who transferred to dealers offering under invoice pricing will be extremely happy in the end.

Just reflect on the possibilities for accessories with the money saved either with FORD or aftermarket.

BTW I am on my 5th Nissan Z. It is a low mileage totally stock 2003 350z Track model (22,000 miles actually) car I have fixed a few nits on. I don’t plan on ever selling or wrecking my Bronco.

 

[SamR]

Well, sounds like one dealership is feeding you the apple, before cutting your throat.... maybe some of these bargains that got people to switch dealers,may or may not be able to hold up their end of the bargain. With Ford limiting how many units they are able to receive. Now, they can obviously say you WILL get your bronco... but when.. late 2022 ? Just my useless observation.

I’d just like to point out that a lot of us granger buyers have been following what’s going on and it’s pretty easy to figure out. Not to mention they have said they will be letting us know where we stand just not publicly. I know myself and a few others have been outspoken about this all falling into our plan and NOT being a detriment.

 

[nminus1]

All this math and the conversations regarding it lead me to this conclusion (and if you think I'm wrong then please post..)
Anyone who reserved in the first 3 days, (the graph shows 14, 20 and 10%) the first 44% of reservations will get a 2021 model. When? In 2021 I would guess.
44% of the estimated 70% of reservations (Ford expects 70% conversion of the 190k reservations) equals 133k vehicles, I think they can make about 80k of those this year., no way 133k. JMO.
Ok so I and anybody who reserved on 7/13-7/15 will get their Bronco this year. After that who knows. My only advice would be:
If you really want one, like me, then wait and just let the process, in which all of us CANNOT control run its course. Keep your expectation low, but be optimistic.
Let us know what you hear as the year continues, we are all in this together. If this is too much for you, which I think we all understand, then cancel your reservation and let the rest of us get our Broncos. Hang in there, looking forward to my Bronco is a positive thing, don't let it become a negative thing. JMO.

 

[Efthreeoh]

The reason Zach used the mathematical gymnastics is that Ford has only given an estimated allocation so a dealership with 10 may lose or gain allocation by the time that April arrives...

Ford has set nothing in stone for any dealership just some ideas of what may happen...

When the ordering is finalized and Ford has set the final allocation, and the commodities are handles then you will know where you are on the list...

My dealer was precise. He said they got X allocations (Bronco units) based on the number of reservations (by time stamp) the dealership had as of September 19, 2020, which was the dealership allocation deadline set by Ford. So on Sept. 19th Ford allocated units at slightly less than half of the reservations. Like I said, I reserved late (past the Sept. 19th date) so I fall well outside the initial allocation limit the dealership received.

If my dealer can be that precise, I would think any dealer could also be precise and knows exactly how many MY '21 Broncos it is going to receive from Ford to fill orders based on the Sept. 19th allocation cut off date.

What Granger posted was a simple linear graph of the number of orders that convert from an estimated reservation conversion rate (percentage). The other graphic was an estimated reservation distribution over time, also just mathematical either.

I was reacting to the poster who implied Ford was not clear on the Bronco delivery process based on reservation conversions, but Granger is being clear. Meaning Granger is setting an example that Ford should follow. That is not the case as evidenced by your response to my initial post, Ford is no less "clear" than Granger. People on this Forum keep shitting on Ford about practically every little issue, without sound reasoning. This is one such example.

 

[Efthreeoh]

Ford literally can’t produce enough MY21 Broncos to meet (anticipated) demand, and has stated that many people, particularly late reservation holders, won’t be able to receive their Bronco until MY22...

...and then Ford communicated with the dealers that they think they can only make about 30% of ordered Broncos in MY21, so expect to only see roughly 30% of your orders in MY21, and the rest will follow in MY22...

This is closely what my dealership communicated to me based on the precise numbers he used in his communication to me yesterday.

It's just reality.

 

[Efthreeoh]

I’m not sure how your dealer can tell you that for sure since reservations haven’t converted to orders yet. What if they have 2/3 of their reservations cancel without orders. You are then MY21. Zach was as clear as he could be without knowing how many will convert.

You really think on average, a dealership is going to lose 66% of its reservations?

 

[ronstar]

Everyone is disecting Granger's posts trying to figure out when they will get their Bronco. Truth is that Granger will have little or no impact on when we receive our Broncos. It's all Ford.

Ford did the reveal.
Ford established the reservation system.
Ford did the release.
Ford established the allocation process.
Ford came up with a list of options that would be late availability (tops, etc)
Ford is scheduling manufacturing.
Ford came up with another list of options that will delay getting a Bronco (2 dr, 2.7, Sasquatch,..)
Ford will delver the number of Broncos they choose to produce to whoever they want to deliver to on a timeline of their choosing.

Every delay so far has been because of Ford. Most are justified in my opinion, based on what I've read.

Given past history and uncertain future supply chains, I'm sure there will be more delays. I don't think that Ford (and certainly not Granger) can tell us at this time when we will get our Broncos with any certainty. It would be a guess on their part, and one that could be months away from the truth.

 

[Heffe66413]

My dealer was precise. He said they got X allocations (Bronco units) based on the number of reservations (by time stamp) the dealership had as of September 19, 2020, which was the dealership allocation deadline set by Ford. So on Sept. 19th Ford allocated units at slightly less than half of the reservations. Like I said, I reserved late (past the Sept. 19th date) so I fall well outside the initial allocation limit the dealership received.

If my dealer can be that precise, I would think any dealer could also be precise and knows exactly how many MY '21 Broncos it is going to receive from Ford to fill orders based on the Sept. 19th allocation cut off date.

What Granger posted was a simple linear graph of the number of orders that convert from an estimated reservation conversion rate (percentage). The other graphic was an estimated reservation distribution over time, also just mathematical either.

I was reacting to the poster who implied Ford was not clear on the Bronco delivery process based on reservation conversions, but Granger is being clear. Meaning Granger is setting an example that Ford should follow. That is not the case as evidenced by your response to my initial post, Ford is no less "clear" than Granger. People on this Forum keep shitting on Ford about practically every little issue, without sound reasoning. This is one such example.

What happens to the dealers that can’t fill their allocation numbers. With Ford giving the ability to transfer dealers, I am sure many dealers who had initial orders will end up with far less because they are jackasses to deal with. So when a dealer can’t fill their allocated number - which dealer get them?

 

[Rickey498]

I canceled my first two orders and went for the October deal because a. I knew some of the things I wanted would be late availability, b. the 2000 off invoice, and c. I knew it would push me into MY22 which would give me more options for ordering my Bronco. The only thing I am worried about, and Ford has changed their position this several times already, is that since @Granger Ford and @Zach@Granger have so many reservations that they won’t be able to fulfill all of them in 2022, and dealers will getting regular inventory before all the reservations are fulfilled. Perhaps Granger could provide some clarification on this. I don’t mind the wait, I just hope does what they said they were going to do from the beginning and fulfill all the reservations first. I am also going to need a plate holder on the front and a granger bronco sticker on the back.

 

[Zach@Granger]

What happens to the dealers that can’t fill their allocation numbers. With Ford giving the ability to transfer dealers, I am sure many dealers who had initial orders will end up with far less because they are jackasses to deal with. So when a dealer can’t fill their allocated number - which dealer get them?

No dealer will get more allocation than they have reservations. So in theory if a dealership has 100 reservations and they received an initial allocation estimate of 50, but they only convert 10 reservations to orders. The maximum allocation they would receive is 10, they could receive less. That is why the initial allocation is only an estimate.

The remaining allocation would be spread amongst other dealers based upon the same criteria that the estimate has been figured. Reservations converted to orders, jeep/4Runner sales, and share of nation sales.

 

[Used2jeep]

On Build & Price!?!?!?!???

Without glitches? You have some of the good stuff there, lol.

I've got a barrel-aged version of one of my favorites that says it won't be on B&P that soon.

Miami huh?

 

[Zach@Granger]

I canceled my first two orders and went for the October deal because a. I knew some of the things I wanted would be late availability, b. the 2000 off invoice, and c. I knew it would push me into MY22 which would give me more options for ordering my Bronco. The only thing I am worried about, and Ford has changed their position this several times already, is that since @Granger Ford and @Zach@Granger have so many reservations that they won’t be able to fulfill all of them in 2022, and dealers will getting regular inventory before all the reservations are fulfilled. Perhaps Granger could provide some clarification on this. I don’t mind the wait, I just hope does what they said they were going to do from the beginning and fulfill all the reservations first. I am also going to need a plate holder on the front and a granger bronco sticker on the back.

This is going to be interesting to see how things play out. I can't imagine a scenario where Ford is not building stock units for 2022MY, but depending on how the order conversion ratio shakes out will determine when that starts. 200,000 reservations at 70% = 140,000 orders. Take 60-70K off for 2021 MY. that leaves the balance at 70-80k units. The 2022 MY will be a longer run with production exceeding 100,000 probably coming in around 120,000-130,000 units (all dependent upon Covid supply issues obviously). So I think it would be safe to say no longer than 6-8 months in 22MY production will stock orders be produced at the most optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your view point) projections. If that number drops to 50% 100,000 - 60-70k units for 21 leaves a balance of 30-40k units for 2022 MY reservations which would be 3-4 months of production and leave the majority of reservation holders with their Broncos before summer 2022. I think this is the most likely scenario.

How Ford will handle the transition from reservations to stock orders I'm not sure. Say one dealer has 400 reservations left and all the other dealers have exhausted theirs. How will that be handled? I'm not sure.

I know now, on a normal "stock" unit like an F-150 or super duty, which is in high demand. A dealership will receive priority if they place a retail order over a stock order. So even if we as a dealership don't have allocation, ford performs a "retail sweep" and prioritizes all retail orders before stock orders. They will hold back a percentage of production to fulfill this need. So I can potentially see a scenario where stock orders are being built alongside retail orders that are reservations. To be clear, this is all speculation and I'm not sure that Ford even knows how all that will work.

I don't think its hard to imagine stock orders of a Big Bend with a soft top being produced before a retail order of a wildtrack with a painted hard top for a customer because of commodity availability. It would be unwise of Ford to stop production of a vehicle when demand is available for stock units, just to wait to have reservations of higher demand items to be prioritized.

 

[Efthreeoh]

Everyone is disecting Granger's posts trying to figure out when they will get their Bronco. Truth is that Granger will have little or no impact on when we receive our Broncos. It's all Ford.

Ford did the reveal.
Ford established the reservation system.
Ford did the release.
Ford established the allocation process.
Ford came up with a list of options that would be late availability (tops, etc)
Ford is scheduling manufacturing.
Ford came up with another list of options that will delay getting a Bronco (2 dr, 2.7, Sasquatch,..)
Ford will delver the number of Broncos they choose to produce to whoever they want to deliver to on a timeline of their choosing.

Every delay so far has been because of Ford. Most are justified in my opinion, based on what I've read.

Given past history and uncertain future supply chains, I'm sure there will be more delays. I don't think that Ford (and certainly not Granger) can tell us at this time when we will get our Broncos with any certainty. It would be a guess on their part, and one that could be months away from the truth.

May 2021 is the time frame Ford said it would know and tell me my expected delivery date, from an email I received yesterday.

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