Will dealer allocations push some early reservation holders to 23?

[Baddie64]

Math says they are somewhere in the 9500 range of new tops that are needed to get back to ground zero to start MY22. At the end of July into August, the weekly build sheets where showing they were capable, I don't know why people think its only a 100 tops a month, this isnt May/June. Dirt Mountain was built in less then a couple weeks of work.

I believe Ford can get these Broncos out. I have zero confidence Mic issues have all been addressed. I have zero confidence Webasto could churn out enough to catch up in MY22 even if all the mic issues get fixed. Softies will get theirs.

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[Username_not_found]

It’s possible. I think that the under invoice/adm dealers screwed it up for everyone. If everybody would’ve charged MSRP no one would’ve had to of moved their reservation. Once they threw the allocation BS in they threw out the reservation system.

If this is the case it's still on Ford for allowing that to happen. Ford could direct dealers to only allow reservation orders to sell at MSRP, but chose instead to let them charge as they see fit. Right or wrong Ford has at every turn shown they will prioritize their dealerships over customers.

Ford: "reservation timeslot determines your place in line. All reservations will be filled before dealers get stock"

Ford: "each dealer will be allocated a fixed number of broncos which may mean certain early reservations wait longer at one dealership than later at others."

Ford: "build configuration will impact timing of production which may see later reservations getting built before some early ones."

Ford: "We're giving each dealer 2 mannequin models which may use several of the constraint items that are delaying your build."

Ford: "We've created VIP orders for dealers to give as they see fit which can pull people from the back of the line all the way to the front and may require you to wait a bit longer for your build."

Ford: "We're having trouble with the hardtops, if you have a hardtop you may have later reservations with soft get in ahead of you for allocations. ALSO dealers may get stock units before all reservations are filled to sell at whatever ADM they please."

Ford: "All not already built non-FE hardtops are pushed to MY22 (at least), but don't worry your MSRP is totally price protected (we won't do anything to stop your dealer from charging you more though), and reservation still TOTALLY determines your place in line and DEFINITELY isn't meaningless.

 

[ZackDanger]

So with the latest news from Ford I honestly don’t think I will even see my Bronco next year!!

my dealer was only going to have 16 non FE allocations this year and I was number 20. I believe only one FE has been delivered to the dealership so far. Which means I still have 19 people in front of me. If allocations are similar I could actually not fall into allocations next year Due to ford not filling any of their orders from this year. My reservation is from early am 7/14. I have a 2 dr on order. This is insane. They should lose this allocation crap at this point and fill orders by reservation number when they are back up and running. otherwise you are potentially going to have early reservation holders still without their bronco next year while people with much later reservation dates get theirs. So frustrating.

Don't assume allocations next year will look anything like allocations this year.

The reason why MY21 Allocations < MY21 Orders is because of production capacity. Six months at diminished capacity (even before the problems) fell far short of the total number of reservations and orders.

Basically, total MY21 production capacity divided by total number of dealers, got us the MY21 allocation numbers.

Weekly Bronco production should be significantly higher in MY22... as long as it's close or equal to whatever orders are in the system... no one would get pushed to MY23.

So, the real questions are:

How many active orders will be left in the system come MY22?
How many Broncos can Ford produce in MY22?

Without rehashing the discussions and numbers already discussed on this board for a while, the back-of-the-napkin indicates that Ford should easily be able to fulfill all outstanding orders in MY22.

(Of course, if there are new or ongoing production woes, another pandemic, a worker strike, MAP sinks into the ground... or anything similar catastrophic, we'd have to redo those calculations.)

 

[Who iz]

Don't assume allocations next year will look anything like allocations this year.

The reason why MY21 Allocations < MY21 Orders is because of production capacity. Six months at diminished capacity (even before the problems) fell far short of the total number of reservations and orders.

Basically, total MY21 production capacity divided by total number of dealers, got us the MY21 allocation numbers.

Weekly Bronco production should be significantly higher in MY22... as long as it's close or equal to whatever orders are in the system... no one would get pushed to MY23.

So, the real questions are:

How many active orders will be left in the system come MY22?
How many Broncos can Ford produce in MY22?

Without rehashing the discussions and numbers already discussed on this board for a while, the back-of-the-napkin indicates that Ford should easily be able to fulfill all outstanding orders in MY22.

(Of course, if there are new or ongoing production woes, another pandemic, a worker strike, MAP sinks into the ground... or anything similar catastrophic, we'd have to redo those calculations.)

Logical thought stream...Although painted white hard top is looking to be earliest '23 regardless.

 

[ZackDanger]

Logical thought stream...Although painted white hard top is looking to be earliest '23 regardless.

It is absolutely MY23.... all painted MOD tops are MY23.

So that is a reason why someone would *choose* to wait until MY23... but the point is, those are MY23 options, so if anyone is interested in a Bronco with the options that will be available in MY22, then I think the math supports that it's an option.

 

[Monster1926]

If this is the case it's still on Ford for allowing that to happen. Ford could direct dealers to only allow reservation orders to sell at MSRP, but chose instead to let them charge as they see fit. Right or wrong Ford has at every turn shown they will prioritize their dealerships over customers.

Ford: "reservation timeslot determines your place in line. All reservations will be filled before dealers get stock"

Ford: "each dealer will be allocated a fixed number of broncos which may mean certain early reservations wait longer at one dealership than later at others."

Ford: "build configuration will impact timing of production which may see later reservations getting built before some early ones."

Ford: "We're giving each dealer 2 mannequin models which may use several of the constraint items that are delaying your build."

Ford: "We've created VIP orders for dealers to give as they see fit which can pull people from the back of the line all the way to the front and may require you to wait a bit longer for your build."

Ford: "We're having trouble with the hardtops, if you have a hardtop you may have later reservations with soft get in ahead of you for allocations. ALSO dealers may get stock units before all reservations are filled to sell at whatever ADM they please."

Ford: "All not already built non-FE hardtops are pushed to MY22 (at least), but don't worry your MSRP is totally price protected (we won't do anything to stop your dealer from charging you more though), and reservation still TOTALLY determines your place in line and DEFINITELY isn't meaningless.

You hit the nail on the head. I understand the mannequins but they should’ve put a mileage limit. Some dealers are hoarding them and not letting anyone drive them. The vip shit was kinda the last straw for me, that was major bullshit that screwed a lot of people without them realizing it. If they wouldn’t of done allocations you would of seen Granger,Stephenson,Chapman get the lions share of Broncos. Ford could try but can’t stop adm. Im not sure they’re even allowed to tell the dealers no adm since technically they’re privately owned. I remember when dodge released the demon. They tried to tell the dealers sticker price only that’s exactly what they did. The dealers also sold “tickets” at 30k+ to have one of their allocations at sticker. Greed will find a way. I’ve tried to think of a way where I could screw Ford as much as they screwed me and there isn’t. Only way is to buy it and flip it. Make it worth my time atleast.

 

[Essmith94]

It’s possible. I think that the under invoice/adm dealers screwed it up for everyone. If everybody would’ve charged MSRP no one would’ve had to of moved their reservation. Once they threw the allocation BS in they threw out the reservation system.

You mean, get rid of a dealer model and just put the “actual” price that people will pay on the website. Then dealers could just be a showroom, delivery, and service center. What a novel concept.

 

[vrtical]

You mean, get rid of a dealer model and just put the “actual” price that people will pay on the website. Then dealers could just be a showroom, delivery, and service center. What a novel concept.

I think Ford was almost there if they would have taken the "Ford Bronco Store" concept further, but I dont know all the $ details that the dealers / unions have in place that would not allow such a concept. Dealers make more money on service / after sales sales other then warranty work.

 

[ZackDanger]

You hit the nail on the head. I understand the mannequins but they should’ve put a mileage limit. Some dealers are hoarding them and not letting anyone drive them. The vip shit was kinda the last straw for me, that was major bullshit that screwed a lot of people without them realizing it. If they wouldn’t of done allocations you would of seen Granger,Stephenson,Chapman get the lions share of Broncos. Ford could try but can’t stop adm. Im not sure they’re even allowed to tell the dealers no adm since technically they’re privately owned. I remember when dodge released the demon. They tried to tell the dealers sticker price only that’s exactly what they did. The dealers also sold “tickets” at 30k+ to have one of their allocations at sticker. Greed will find a way. I’ve tried to think of a way where I could screw Ford as much as they screwed me and there isn’t. Only way is to buy it and flip it. Make it worth my time atleast.

I hear your frustration but I feel the data just doesn't support these assertions.

The "Priority Builds" represented just the first week of production, and production started 1 week early. That meant that no one was "screwed"... and for the people who did receive that bump, it may have meant the world of difference. (People with trips planned, charity organizations that wanted one to auction off, people who were purchasing it for deeply meaningful and emotional reasons.) While it may have felt like 3,000 people were cutting in front of you in line, considering the scale of production, it wouldn't have even resulted in a change in which truck their bronco would ultimately be delivered on.

As far as allocation... whether it was done by dealer, or nationally, either way the first 30% of reservation holders were slated to receive a MY21 (before the latest news). Assuming a regular dispersion of reservation holders across all dealerships, Granger/Stephen/Chapman would have received the exact same number of Broncos no matter...

...additionally, by doing it at the dealer level, each dealership would be able to anticipate ahead of time exactly how many Broncos they were slated to get, and be able to communicate to their customers, and literally bank on the knowledge. Imagine the Mom & Pop local dealer that had 1 or maybe 2 MY21 Broncos slated to come in for their 3-6 loyal local orders... that they were really looking forward to getting for people into the showroom and generating buzz and publicity, and sell to their small town... and then being told they wouldn't receive any Bronco in MY21 because Granger/Stephens/Chapman was slated to get 362 instead of 360.


I get that this whole situation has been fraught with emotion, but I've been trying to make it a point to look at things pragmatically, and I've found that while frustrating in general, Ford is doing what seems like is best for everyone. Sure, not everyone is going to be absolutely tickled with the outcome, but considering what they have to work with, I think they are doing a commendable job.

$0.02

 

[WuNgUn]

I don't think allocation will be formulated in the deliveries going forward...
They'll go strictly my reservation and commodities for MY22 (pre-March 2021 rez holders)

 

[mpeugeot]

The biggest problem is that your reservation number means absolutely 0 without dealer allocation. You could have the 50th order, but if your dealer was allocated 10 Broncos, and 10 of those orders were lower reservation numbers than you... guess what... No Bronco.

 

[ZackDanger]

The biggest problem is that your reservation number means absolutely 0 without dealer allocation. You could have the 50th order, but if your dealer was allocated 10 Broncos, and 10 of those orders were lower reservation numbers than you... guess what... No Bronco.

Right, because in that scneario Ford can only produce 10 broncos in MY21.

If you took your 50th reservation to a dealership with 100 broncos worth of allocation, you'd just end up being #500 on their list.


Allocation isn't some slimy sneaky thing Ford did to punish Bronco reservation holders... it's literally just the ratio of MY21 broncos they can produce to the number of total orders.... which equaled about 1/3... meaning only the first 30% (ish) of reservation holders *could* receive an MY21.

If you aren't in your dealership's first 30%, it only means that statistically you aren't in the first 30% nationally either... so you wont be in the first 30% anywhere.

 

[TheWoo]

I don't think allocation will be formulated in the deliveries going forward...
They'll go strictly my reservation and commodities for MY22 (pre-March 2021 rez holders)

Allocations is how every vehicle is distributed to dealers. It will absolutely continue to be used.

Too much energy is extended complaining about allocations ruining everything without really understanding how they work. It's simply a way to distribute total annual production over the country. While you can find exceptions, for the most part people are going to get their Broncos in the same general time frame as they would under a straight timestamp system.

Allocations for 22 are likely to be between 2 and 3 times as large as 21 allocations. @ZackDanger did a good job laying out some logic in here.

 

[Tonka1]

I think the only people that won't get their orders satisfied next year will be those holding out for a painted hard top which Ford has said will be available for MY23. That is assuming the commodity constraints and hard top issues are resolved. Dealer allocations make no sense at this point due to underestimating the demand for certain options. Ford will build and fill the orders that they can meet.

 

[Monster1926]

I hear your frustration but I feel the data just doesn't support these assertions.

The "Priority Builds" represented just the first week of production, and production started 1 week early. That meant that no one was "screwed"... and for the people who did receive that bump, it may have meant the world of difference. (People with trips planned, charity organizations that wanted one to auction off, people who were purchasing it for deeply meaningful and emotional reasons.) While it may have felt like 3,000 people were cutting in front of you in line, considering the scale of production, it wouldn't have even resulted in a change in which truck their bronco would ultimately be delivered on.

As far as allocation... whether it was done by dealer, or nationally, either way the first 30% of reservation holders were slated to receive a MY21 (before the latest news). Assuming a regular dispersion of reservation holders across all dealerships, Granger/Stephen/Chapman would have received the exact same number of Broncos no matter...

...additionally, by doing it at the dealer level, each dealership would be able to anticipate ahead of time exactly how many Broncos they were slated to get, and be able to communicate to their customers, and literally bank on the knowledge. Imagine the Mom & Pop local dealer that had 1 or maybe 2 MY21 Broncos slated to come in for their 3-6 loyal local orders... that they were really looking forward to getting for people into the showroom and generating buzz and publicity, and sell to their small town... and then being told they wouldn't receive any Bronco in MY21 because Granger/Stephens/Chapman was slated to get 362 instead of 360.


I get that this whole situation has been fraught with emotion, but I've been trying to make it a point to look at things pragmatically, and I've found that while frustrating in general, Ford is doing what seems like is best for everyone. Sure, not everyone is going to be absolutely tickled with the outcome, but considering what they have to work with, I think they are doing a commendable job.

$0.02

So if your in line at a bakery for blueberry (that’s all they sell) donuts. The bakery has 20 blueberry donuts for the day, there are 30 people in line. They open 10 mins early and let 10 people in from across the street they each buy a blueberry donut. No one got screwed?

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