Will dealer allocations push some early reservation holders to 23?

[ZackDanger]

So you got a priority order then? I know you took delivery of your bronco already. You would feel very different if you were one of the ones who just got the you’ll be getting a 2022 bronco email. My FE was always going to be built (maybe) priority orders don’t effect me but it does piss me off when Ford deviates from what they say to sling shot someone who isn’t 1/8 as invested as some people on here. I’m done replying to our conversation (not a argument and I’m not apoplectic) now.
Have a good day and weekend.

Hahaha. Nope.

Not only did I *not* get a priority... I don't have a Bronco... and furthermore, I did just receive the "your bronco is going to be a MY22" email!

And to add to that, my daily driver is on the auction block already without a solid plan for reliable personal transportation until my Bronco comes in... whenever that may be.

https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/thre...-my-daily-driver-without-a-bronco-plan.21467/

I think it's funny you're guaranteed a MY21 and upset about priority builds, and I'm in Bronco limbo and they don't bother me.

Just shows the diversity on the forum!



Cheers!

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[mmorgan]

Do the dealer stock units go against the allocation limit? If so this is very concerning. Commodities are still expected to be restrained well into 2022 so even if they are at full production, if your build has constraints and late res holders do not, they will bump ahead of you in line and take up another allocation. So if your build has a lot of sins, it's possible that you could continue to be bumped down the line and when the parts do come in to build your ride... ooops! We're all out of allocations for this year! Sorry!

Allocations will be the thorn in the side of reservation holders if needed in MY 2022.

 

[JT58Bronc]

Yes. I just got the E Mail and that I have to re-order in September or October. So discouraging. So that means into the 2022 or 2023 model year. And I am the absolute bottom of the barrel at my dealer so that means a 2023 for me, for sure.​

​

So I am out, not going to re-order. I was so excited back in July 14, 2020 at 6:00 AM when I put my reservation in- thought I might have it by late summer this year- such wishful thinking. My excitement is all gone now. I'll modify my 2019 Silverado truck or buy a Gladiator. If I really want a Bronco I will be better off finding one off a lot at a small dealer that had only a few orders and has allocation slots versus my dealer that had too many orders.​

​

In any case, I am done good luck to all of you on getting your Broncos!! Those of you who got your Broncos- you are very, very lucky.​

 

[West1]

Do the dealer stock units go against the allocation limit? If so this is very concerning. Commodities are still expected to be restrained well into 2022 so even if they are at full production, if your build has constraints and late res holders do not, they will bump ahead of you in line and take up another allocation. So if your build has a lot of sins, it's possible that you could continue to be bumped down the line and when the parts do come in to build your ride... ooops! We're all out of allocations for this year! Sorry!

Wow, you make a great but very depressing point. I hope Ford makes some type of accommodation so this does not happen.

 

[vrtical]

I still have not seen this part of my post addressed.

Your dealership is allocated 100 units. Due to part availability, your build isn't getting done. Meanwhile, others with non-constraint builds continue to get produced. By April, 100 reservationist orders (most of them placed way later than you) have been built and sold. Come June and you finally get the notice that all of the parts needed for your dream ride are in and it can finally be built! Yay! But.... oh no.... since your dealership already went through their 100 allocations you're SOL. Given the serious commodity constraints how is this not a highly likely scenario?

IMO The 22 allocation blocks at a dealer WILL cover their outstanding orders at least for all 21/22 converted, dealer and Ford know what they have on the books there is no estimating. No way is a 21 order going to go beyond 22 unless the res holder put it in 99.

 

[West1]

Yes. I just got the E Mail and that I have to re-order in September or October. So discouraging. So that means into the 2022 or 2023 model year. And I am the absolute bottom of the barrel at my dealer so that means a 2023 for me, for sure.​

​

So I am out, not going to re-order. I was so excited back in July 14, 2020 at 6:00 AM when I put my reservation in- thought I might have it by late summer this year- such wishful thinking. My excitement is all gone now. I'll modify my 2019 Silverado truck or buy a Gladiator. If I really want a Bronco I will be better off finding one off a lot at a small dealer that had only a few orders and has allocation slots versus my dealer that had too many orders.​

​

In any case, I am done good luck to all of you on getting your Broncos!! Those of you who got your Broncos- you are very, very lucky.​

Who did you receive the email from?

 

[BlueBronco]

I still have not seen this part of my post addressed.

Your dealership is allocated 100 units. Due to part availability, your build isn't getting done. Meanwhile, others with non-constraint builds continue to get produced. By April, 100 reservationist orders (most of them placed way later than you) have been built and sold. Come June and you finally get the notice that all of the parts needed for your dream ride are in and it can finally be built! Yay! But.... oh no.... since your dealership already went through their 100 allocations you're SOL. Given the serious commodity constraints how is this not a highly likely scenario?

Those 100 allocations in your scenario are spread out evenly over the 12 month model year. So, while your scenario is possible, the spreading out of allocations will reduce the constraint effect.

The spreading of allocations instead of strict time stamp builds is what many are up in arms about. In the same month of actual MY22 production it is possible that dealer X may be delivering October reservations while dealer Y is still working through their July reservations and dealer Z has burned through all their reservations and is now taking delivery of dealer stock units.

 

[West1]

IMO The 22 allocation blocks at a dealer WILL cover their outstanding orders at least for all 21/22 converted, dealer and Ford know what they have on the books there is no estimating. No way is a 21 order going to go beyond 22 unless the res holder put it in 99.

Or converted the order after 3/19/2021, correct? Isn't an order after 3/19/2021 essentially a guaranteed expected 2022 delivery?

 

[TheWoo]

I still have not seen this part of my post addressed.

Your dealership is allocated 100 units. Due to part availability, your build isn't getting done. Meanwhile, others with non-constraint builds continue to get produced. By April, 100 reservationist orders (most of them placed way later than you) have been built and sold. Come June and you finally get the notice that all of the parts needed for your dream ride are in and it can finally be built! Yay! But.... oh no.... since your dealership already went through their 100 allocations you're SOL. Given the serious commodity constraints how is this not a highly likely scenario?

That's not how allocations get distributed. If your dealer is allocated 120 for the year, they're going to get about 10 a month. They aren't going to "burn through" all their allocations by June.

When scheduling for January happens, they'll get 10 scheduled builds. Then Feb, Mar, etc. If on one of those months none of the 120 orders they have can be built because of constraints, then a stock vehicle will be added.

Yes, stock counts against allocations, but only because Ford can only make so many Broncos. Someone would be out of luck in the year regardless of allocations.

Yes. I just got the E Mail and that I have to re-order in September or October. So discouraging. So that means into the 2022 or 2023 model year. And I am the absolute bottom of the barrel at my dealer so that means a 2023 for me, for sure.​

​

So I am out, not going to re-order. I was so excited back in July 14, 2020 at 6:00 AM when I put my reservation in- thought I might have it by late summer this year- such wishful thinking. My excitement is all gone now. I'll modify my 2019 Silverado truck or buy a Gladiator. If I really want a Bronco I will be better off finding one off a lot at a small dealer that had only a few orders and has allocation slots versus my dealer that had too many orders.​

​

In any case, I am done good luck to all of you on getting your Broncos!! Those of you who got your Broncos- you are very, very lucky.​

You have a June 14 6am reservation? There's no way you're at the bottom of your dealer's list with that time.

Do what you want, but if your dealer has a lot of orders they'll have lots of 22 allocations. A small dealer won't have a bunch of allocations unless they have lots of orders.

 

[mmorgan]

Don't assume allocations next year will look anything like allocations this year.

The reason why MY21 Allocations < MY21 Orders is because of production capacity. Six months at diminished capacity (even before the problems) fell far short of the total number of reservations and orders.

Basically, total MY21 production capacity divided by total number of dealers, got us the MY21 allocation numbers.

Weekly Bronco production should be significantly higher in MY22... as long as it's close or equal to whatever orders are in the system... no one would get pushed to MY23.

So, the real questions are:

How many active orders will be left in the system come MY22?
How many Broncos can Ford produce in MY22?

Without rehashing the discussions and numbers already discussed on this board for a while, the back-of-the-napkin indicates that Ford should easily be able to fulfill all outstanding orders in MY22.

(Of course, if there are new or ongoing production woes, another pandemic, a worker strike, MAP sinks into the ground... or anything similar catastrophic, we'd have to redo those calculations.)

I agree with your logic here but: Do new orders/reservations fall AFTER the old outstanding orders or get blended in because of allocations. Old + new orders should easily outnumber production capacity during 2022 - unless sales collapse.
Only Ford can answer this question.

 

[Philvis77]

I think Ford was almost there if they would have taken the "Ford Bronco Store" concept further, but I dont know all the $ details that the dealers / unions have in place that would not allow such a concept. Dealers make more money on service / after sales sales other then warranty work.

The dealership lobby is 100 years old and VERY powerful. It would get real messy.

 

[BroncOBabe2.7]

That's not how allocations get distributed. If your dealer is allocated 120 for the year, they're going to get about 10 a month. They aren't going to "burn through" all their allocations by June.

When scheduling for January happens, they'll get 10 scheduled builds. Then Feb, Mar, etc. If on one of those months none of the 120 orders they have can be built because of constraints, then a stock vehicle will be added.

Yes, stock counts against allocations, but only because Ford can only make so many Broncos. Someone would be out of luck in the year regardless of allocations.

You have a June 14 6am reservation? There's no way you're at the bottom of your dealer's list with that time.

Do what you want, but if your dealer has a lot of orders they'll have lots of 22 allocations. A small dealer won't have a bunch of allocations unless they have lots of orders.

Thanks for the clarification. I didn't realize they were spread out monthly. Still, it doesn't give me any warm and fuzzy feelings knowing that my order could be built but won't simply because of allocation limits. I think that's garbage, especially for the really early reservations. Yeah, I understand trying to distribute the product evenly and in a typical year I would agree that's probably the best way. But this year isn't typical and the launch has been a disaster and I really think timestamp should be a much higher consideration in this scenario, even if it means Granger gets a hefty portion of the builds that month. That seems fair given the current situation.

 

[ZackDanger]

I agree with your logic here but: Do new orders/reservations fall AFTER the old outstanding orders or get blended in because of allocations. Old + new orders should easily outnumber production capacity during 2022 - unless sales collapse.
Only Ford can answer this question.

They would be "blended in" in the sense that if there are no buildable older reservations, they would build a newer reservation before a stock order... everything goes in the queue to be built, with ranking based on when the reservation was made.

...but I think you're underestimating the rate at which new orders dropped off after reveal night.

Once more broncos start hitting the roads I'm sure we'll see some small increase in orders, but for the most part the vast majority of people who were going to order a Bronco already have.

There will be an extraordinarily small number of people who have yet to walk into a dealership to place an order, find out the wait time, and decide to go through with it.

 

[mmorgan]

I don't think allocation will be formulated in the deliveries going forward...
They'll go strictly my reservation and commodities for MY22 (pre-March 2021 rez holders)

This is why Ford needs to clarify this issue. I believe allocations will be needed and used for the dealers.

 

[WCP-82]

I still have not seen this part of my post addressed.

Your dealership is allocated 100 units. Due to part availability, your build isn't getting done. Meanwhile, others with non-constraint builds continue to get produced. By April, 100 reservationist orders (most of them placed way later than you) have been built and sold. Come June and you finally get the notice that all of the parts needed for your dream ride are in and it can finally be built! Yay! But.... oh no.... since your dealership already went through their 100 allocations you're SOL. Given the serious commodity constraints how is this not a highly likely scenario?

My scenario. I was Allocation #104 out of 109 at Stephen's Auto Center. I reserved on 7/14 @ 4:00 pm. As of December 2020 SAC had about 330 total reservations.

So 226 reservations were behind me. If there were no more reservations after December (unlikely but I don't know the numbers) and all 226 converted to order (again unlikely but it's the only number I have and may be offset by post December reservations) I will use the 226 number in this situation.

226 Broncos reserved and ordered after me. Take rate for four doors was around 60%. There are now 135 four doors behind me in line. A recent poll on here showed 44% have switched to soft top. That means a potential 60 Broncos behind me are buildable for 2021.

If the same percentages hold true for orders ahead of me in line then the 103 reservations would be 60 4 doors with 26 buildable (soft top). I have already seen on the SAC thread that they were delivered two non FE two doors. That makes it 28 in line ahead of me.

28 get built, 60 get pulled ahead and the allocation hit is 88 for 2021. That leaves 21 Allocations for 2022. With 103 ahead of me reduced down to 75 after builds that puts me #76 out of the remaining 21 allocations.

I am potentially sitting 55 units outside of allocation. If allocation is still a thing and no additional units are awarded to Stephens than when exactly will me 7/14 reservation fall in line nationally?

I know my methodology has some flaws but just trying to get a feel for the future.

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