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Will Rivian be worth more than Ford?

Carolina Jim

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CNBC today:
  • Rivian Automotive, electric vehicle maker backed by Amazon and Ford, filed for an initial public offering on the Nasdaq.
  • Its paperwork shows Rivian had a $994 million net loss on zero revenue in the first six months of 2021.
  • In September 2021, Rivian beat Tesla, GM and Ford to the market with an electric pickup, the R1-T, which has received glowing early reviews.

Like Tesla, Rivian remains a non-unionized automaker for now. The company’s filing acknowledged that this status could change and impact labor costs.

Rivian is also following in Tesla’s vertically integrated footsteps. This means it sells its electric vehicles directly to customers rather than through franchised dealerships, provides its own vehicle service and repairs, and is investing in a network of charging stations for Rivian owners to use.
Amazon and Ford each own more than 5% of the company.
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Hornet

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Why is Ford an investor in a company that's making an EV pickup,that will compete with their F150 EV?
As for value anything is possible... at one point Nikola had a market cap bigger than Ford.
 

Rahkmalla

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The idea of a fledgling company that has yet to build a vehicle for sale having a larger market cap than Ford is kind of bonkers. But whatever, interest rates suck so you can't save you money you have to invest, and every investor is looking for the next moonshot instead of aiming for sustainable growth. Get rich quick (and be wrong) is the American dream.
 
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Carolina Jim

Carolina Jim

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I don't have a crystal ball, but here's my guess:

ICE was developed in 1860, so obviously a very mature tech. Once a device has been totally optimized, and everyone knows how to make it, you reach parity and commoditization.

"Parity and commoditization" perfectly describe vehicles today, where only nuance differentiates one maker from another.

If, and that's still an if, plugs replace petrol, the dominant value proposition will become 'range'. 500+ miles between charges is already on the table. 'Range" evolution might well follow the same curve as chip processing speed over the past 40 years. If all that happens, its curtains for Ford...as they neither pioneer new tech, nor adapt well to change.

So...its very possible that All these Broncos we're getting are Heritage Editions.
 

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MayhemMike

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My Magic Eight ball is in the shop at the moment for routine maintenance so I can’t provide an answer to your question at this time.
 

MaverickMan

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Why is Ford an investor in a company that's making an EV pickup,that will compete with their F150 EV?
As for value anything is possible... at one point Nikola had a market cap bigger than Ford.
It was an investment in shared technology. They invested as part of a deal. You develop this end, we will develop that end. Later we will share and tag team clothsline Elon Musk back to Mars.
 
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Carolina Jim

Carolina Jim

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MaverickMan

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I don't have a crystal ball, but here's my guess:

ICE was developed in 1860, so obviously a very mature tech. Once a device has been totally optimized, and everyone knows how to make it, you reach parity and commoditization.

"Parity and commoditization" perfectly describe vehicles today, where only nuance differentiates one maker from another.

If, and that's still an if, plugs replace petrol, the dominant value proposition will become 'range'. 500+ miles between charges is already on the table. 'Range" evolution might well follow the same curve as chip processing speed over the past 40 years. If all that happens, its curtains for Ford...as they neither pioneer new tech, nor adapt well to change.

So...its very possible that All these Broncos we're getting are Heritage Editions.
Well when I read up on Fords involvment with Rivian years ago, it very much sounded like they were paying someone to develop new tech for them to share later.

As for adapting to change, I think building a dedicated offroader, modular convertible to compete in a market where there is demand is adapting to change. I guarantee I am probably the poorest regular on this forum and I bought 200 shares of Ford for that reason, half of which I bought when it was low, the other half has been $75 a paycheck. Ford has been investing in the right technologies for years and that will see them into a bright future.
 

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Carolina Jim

Carolina Jim

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that will see them into a bright future.
You might well be right; I don't hate Ford, and 2 years ago I didn't have Any opinion on them at all. But here are the tea leaves I'm reading:

In the world of vehicles, there aren't many key players, and heritage is a big big deal. The tech world is more broadly distributed; dominance shifts with the next best mousetrap; and often the new kid on the block earns the most kudos.

I believe vehicles in 20 years will be dominated:
  • 1/3rd by battery superiority, which Ford is pretty late to the game on
  • 1/3rd by general technology, which ain't Ford's strength
  • 1/3rd by the carriage

With a whole new propulsion technology to deal with, Ford's tepid history in most Csat categories, unions and dealer networks holding them back...they got a tall hill to climb
 

MaverickMan

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You might well be right; I don't hate Ford, and 2 years ago I didn't have Any opinion on them at all. But here are the tea leaves I'm reading:

In the world of vehicles, there aren't many key players, and heritage is a big big deal. The tech world is more broadly distributed; dominance shifts with the next best mousetrap; and often the new kid on the block earns the most kudos.

I believe vehicles in 20 years will be dominated:
  • 1/3rd by battery superiority, which Ford is pretty late to the game on
  • 1/3rd by general technology, which ain't Ford's strength
  • 1/3rd by the carriage

With a whole new propulsion technology to deal with, Ford's tepid history in most Csat categories, unions and dealer networks holding them back...they got a tall hill to climb
By those numbers Ford is positioned perfectly. Their investment in Rivian for shared development and access to their chassis, which includes the battery. The fact that they also have their own battery system in the mach e and lightning means they have alot of battery work to draw from between the two.

As far ast technology, they have in general always been ahead in the domestic market atleast. From carbs, to displacement efficiency, to OHC, to fast hybrids(the old fusion), transmissions, early adoption of advanced intrumentation, and all the way back again to the streamlining of the assembly line. Ford has been a technological force for over a century and hasnt really stopped.

The carriage falls right into that Heritage with styleing such as the mustang, and broncos, and even the new maverick, that brings images of the past to feed the emotions of present day buyers.

Yes their unions and dealer networks are holding them back. However those are people and lives. Unless we are heading for a strictly distopian Idiocracy/Elysium/Chappie looking future. Companies that sacrifice a bit off the top for the lives of the people involved with them are a neccessity. Remember when their stock value was the lowest in 2020 they were first to jump in and start making ventilators and PPE to save lives.
 

AZ_Liberty

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Why is Ford an investor in a company that's making an EV pickup,that will compete with their F150 EV?
Generally a 5 to 10% ownership is going to come with some stipulations on technology and patent sharing. In this case, I remember it specifically being announced as a technology share agreement.

I think the Lightning is premature myself, and Ford is rushing it to market for the stock price bump. The range is terrible, and the charge times atrocious. The "miles per hour of charge" are half the Mach E since the thing is so heavy.

Ford makes great vehicles, but their EV tech is a bit behind the curve.
 
 


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