Coronovirus discussions

[Timsvtgen1]

How're those numbers working out for you now? We'll be at 60k this week, and may not have hit the peak yet. And we also know, have admitted, that these are not the complete numbers, because people died before being tested. Hell, some states, like the CA you talked about, are going to exhume and do autopsies all the way back to december. Also, 60k flu deaths a year is considered a very bad year, and we were lucky to have missed the most of flu season on this thing, it would've been alot worse if it had started spreading in sep/oct time frame instead of feb/mar. And estimates from CDC put 2-3million infected, as of right now.

And, Z-pacs, zinc, and hydrobullshit have all proven to be completely, and utterly, ineffective. Anyone who even though that a Zpac would be effective against a virus needs to give up their human card, because you do not have a friggen brain. Zpac is an anti-biotic. Virus =/= bacteria. in no way, shape, or form would any anti-biotic help vs a virus. But, that's 1st grade knowledge there, did you pass that grade?

And then there is hydrobullshit. Now, I've been mostly a supporter of our commander in chief since day 1. But after the last 4 months? to hell with that. The guy had invested at the start in this hydro-bullshit manufacturer, then started touting up its miracles to bump its stock so he makes money, despite the fact that the fatality rate of the drug itself is worse than this disease (but better than those it is designed to treat), and of there being zero to little evidence that it helped at all.

The only two saving graces right now are that the summer is upon us, and temp+humidity has shown to decrease the R0, and also that the R0 was fairly low (~3), so with a decent enough number of people obeying stay at home, and wearing masks, the R0 has dropped to about 1.2, which is a very slow, gradual growth. With heat and humidity increasing, we should be seeing the R0 drop below 1 within the next week or two. And that means a decease in cases for the next 5 months. until temps drop, everyone has forgotten about this shit, and then it hits again with an R0~3, but with 10-20k active cases (vs the few hundred thousand at the moment), and it is back into the 100s of thousands within 2 weeks before anyone reacts.

Oh, then lets talk about fucking immunity? Zero previous corona-virus's have had a complete immunity, ever. And zero have had a partial immunity that lasts beyond 2 years. So, why is this one going to be different? Herd immunity may not even work with this thing, or not very effectively, just like it doesn't with the common cold (which a few of the virus' that cause that are corona-virus). Without a vaccine, we are looking at a perennial disease with a >0.1% fatality rate. Yeah, 0.1%sounds really small. If 1/3rd of the population catches this every year, similar to other endemic diseases without complete vaccines (flu when the vaccine misses the target, common colds, etc) then that is 100k dead, per year. This would put it at number 5 for highest causes of death per year in the U.S., and this is some conservative numbers I'm spouting. But right now, we have seen a few days where this is the leading cause of death with such things as cancer, heart disease, injuries, averaged out over the year.

If the final tally on the fatality rate even remotely approaches 1%, you are talking 1 million plus dead a year, the highest cause of death by a factor of 2.

So yeah, no big fucking deal.

Oh, right, it mostly only effects old folks, right? I'm 38, overweight but not obese, an alcohlic, but no liver disease yet, no major medical issues. I am,according to the numbers, completely safe. I have less than a 0.03% chance of dying from this thing. But, I love my parents. They aren't as young as me (imagine that...), and are not as in good of health, obese, alcoholics with heart issues...their chances approach 5-7% for their age range. again, much better than not. If you had a 5-7% chance of dying every time you drove your truck, would you still drive every day?

So yeah, get a clue. There are some serious implications on this virus, some of it may get better once we have a better understanding, but as of where things sit, and look, right now, this is not a good prognosis unless we actively curtail activities that will lead to it's spread.

While I don’t totally disagree with your broad sentiment, ZPacs are quite effective in some of these cases in which the virus causes bacterial pneumonia by way of a secondary infection - much like the common flu does the in some cases. But in any case I’m sure the Mayo Clinic has one hell of a amateur forum for this.. can’t we go back to Broncos?

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[FirstOnRaceDay]

I’m so sick of Covid at this point!

its only killed~100,000 most of them (80%+) over the age of 60. Roughly the same numbers of the 2017-2018 flu season (94k)
And the number of deaths and ICU cases has flatlined.

remind me again why we have the WORLD shut down for flu season again?

if your that worried. Isolate nursing homes and keep elderly at home. Other than that ITS JUST THE FLU! Only difference is it takes 2 weeks or so to recover vs 2-3 days. But in terms of lethality and who it’s targeting, it’s no different than the average flu season.

 

[JimmyDean]

I’m so sick of Covid at this point!

its only killed~100,000 most of them (80%+) over the age of 60. Roughly the same numbers of the 2017-2018 flu season (94k)
And the number of deaths and ICU cases has flatlined.

remind me again why we have the WORLD shut down for flu season again?

if your that worried. Isolate nursing homes and keep elderly at home. Other than that ITS JUST THE FLU! Only difference is it takes 2 weeks or so to recover vs 2-3 days. But in terms of lethality and who it’s targeting, it’s no different than the average flu season.

a) the 17/18 flu killed 61k estimated, the 94k is the upper 95% , the lower is in the 40k range
b) we are not even in peak season yet for COVID to do its damage give it 4 months
c) very nicely empathetic attitude you have 'well, ya lived a good life, good luck!' really hope people show you more compassion when you need help.

I agree, we should reopen, but stop spouting bullshit to make your point. and masks need to be made mandatory at least for the time being for everyone outside of their home/vehicle (unless they are interacting with like a drive through/curbside pickup then mandatory then). do this for a couple of months and watch the numbers, see if it can be loosened. And be damn prepared to tighten things up again when the weather cools.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

a) the 17/18 flu killed 61k estimated, the 94k is the upper 95% , the lower is in the 40k range
b) we are not even in peak season yet for COVID to do its damage give it 4 months
c) very nicely empathetic attitude you have 'well, ya lived a good life, good luck!' really hope people show you more compassion when you need help.

I agree, we should reopen, but stop spouting bullshit to make your point. and masks need to be made mandatory at least for the time being for everyone outside of their home/vehicle (unless they are interacting with like a drive through/curbside pickup then mandatory then). do this for a couple of months and watch the numbers, see if it can be loosened. And be damn prepared to tighten things up again when the weather cools.

I would argue most of the Covid deaths are over reported. Because cdc wasn’t pressuring hospitals to report flu deaths like they are Covid. Deaths are flatlining in America. CDC estimates by end of the year we won’t cross 140k deaths. So a 12 month period for Covid is 140k deaths (probably closer to 120k) and flu for 7 months is 90k+ tell me which is worse??? It’s very hard to argue.

and as I said why didn’t we shut the whole USA down in flu season of 2017-2018 (October threw March) when 90k+ died and 400k+ were hospitalized???

90% of ICU cases and deaths are 60+ years old (JUST LIKE THE FLU)

so again why do we have to shut the whole county down ?

 

[CSSM]

There would be a lot more deaths if we hadn't reacted the way we did. If we do everything right it will all look like an overreaction. That means it is working.

It is much more contagious than the flu and, even with closing things down, Coronavirus has killed at a much higher rate. It has killed more than the flu this year.

The real problem is anti-intellectualism - people not trusting the experts. If the experts say stay home, why not stay home? You haven't devoted your life to understanding viruses like they have.

 

[MaverickMan]

I would argue most of the Covid deaths are over reported. Because cdc wasn’t pressuring hospitals to report flu deaths like they are Covid. Deaths are flatlining in America. CDC estimates by end of the year we won’t cross 140k deaths. So a 12 month period for Covid is 140k deaths (probably closer to 120k) and flu for 7 months is 90k+ tell me which is worse??? It’s very hard to argue.

and as I said why didn’t we shut the whole USA down in flu season of 2017-2018 (October threw March) when 90k+ died and 400k+ were hospitalized???

90% of ICU cases and deaths are 60+ years old (JUST LIKE THE FLU)

so again why do we have to shut the whole county down ?

That logic would be like my wife wondering why the hell she had to go through chemotherapy if the tumors were just going to shrink after 6 months.

 

[Evanm14]

Interesting how the UAW had no chases of COVID when making masks and other safety gear but when it was time to build vehicles "someone got sick"? Hmmm....

 

[MaverickMan]

Interesting how the UAW had no chases of COVID when making masks and other safety gear but when it was time to build vehicles "someone got sick"? Hmmm....

it is my understanding that they were employee volunteers and were likely setup to work in much fewer numbers and were setup to work with better distancing than car production demands.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Interesting how the UAW had no chases of COVID when making masks and other safety gear but when it was time to build vehicles "someone got sick"? Hmmm....

its called UAW Workers making $6000 a month at home on unemployment vs $5000 working so any excuse they need they will use

 

[MaverickMan]

$3550 maximum unemployment after %15 taxes in michigan. Based on on 52 weeks divided by 12 (4.3 something weeks a month). This includes the 600 extra.

 

[BONESTOCK]

Dude....I'm just ready to get back to juijitsu. I miss folding laundry with people still in them and simulating maiming and murder.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

WE BETTER NOT SHUT DOWN AGAIN FOR A HAND FULL OF ALREADY SICK PEOPLE!

I love how the news is spewing lies about ICU cases in the USA “MASSIVE INCREASE” since when is 400 more ICU cases in TEXAS a huge increase? Or 500 in Arizona?

you do realize more people are hospitalized with the flu and pneumonia right? (Which drs are instructed to call it covid)

80% of ICU cases and deaths are from already ill people. Old people in assisted living. ITS NOT A PANDEMIC!

if we shut down again then we just better shut down the whole WORLD Every January- March to stop the flu from killing people too....

 

[MaverickMan]

I dont think we need a shutdown, but I do think we need people to get their heads out of their asses. Just take basic precautions dont do belly shots in a crowded pool to celebrate veterans because its memorial day. Wash your hands when you eat or after you pick your nose. Dont cram in places of buisness, call it social distancing if you want or just call it common courtesy. The US is still seeing just under 1000 deaths a day off it. Maybe %15 percent were so old they would've died anyway. so that leaves 7 to 800 dead atleast on top of all the other ways to die in this country, like walking and texting, drinking and driving, an the newly popular going to a protest.

So we do need to take it seriously, without freaking out. Thats what Bronco news is for.

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