Delivery Reality

[BroncoHooves]

Im sorry. I’m A math guy.
just an fyi my Differential Equations exam in college was only 2 questions and it took me over 3 hours.

Love Wolfram Alpha

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[OC4x4]

I think someone said they lowest number they saw was 10083xxx. Sorry, I just added 17k to your position.

I didnt need a reason to drink but now I've got one.

 

[Mke_80]

I didnt need a reason to drink but now I've got one.

WE might have a hint here on what Ford actually did all numbers start with 101 and if sequential looking at reservation page we would have 350000 + reservation that is if the 10083 made a typo and wanted to type 10183 otherwise since we don't see other 100 in the list we might suspect that Ford kept 100000 units for dealer stock and that if 10083 is true he is probably a dealer that forgot it was a secret! lol I might be overthinking this. Otherwise I am convinced that we would see more of the 100 series numbers. All the reservation 101 where made on the night of the reveal as soon as the reverve button got live . Does not make sense to have a 10083 in the lot unless there was private reservation before public reservation. Just thinking while typing !

 

[Broncolli]

I remember looking at the first forum Bronco ordered - and the number was 101014xxx something like that. So they started at 14000. Someone also mentioned the Mustang was a similar number. That being said - I am number 27k, so that puts 13k ahead of me and I got my order in around 10:30 launch night.

 

[XCR440]

Totally agree, if I could pick the build date on mine it would be 8 weeks after job 1, I'm guessing that'll be in the neighborhood of the ok to ship, when that happens, usually the just off the line start shipping and they slowly start working the backlog with first built being the last out.

Ask any dealer about the 2013 Fusions, had an early build that I didn't get until the 14's were orderable.

 

[xXChartmanXx]

So the timeline has become more clear, as well as the total reservations. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION

So there has been roughly 240,000 total reservations. And here at Bronco6G we have roughly 2,400 going to members. or 1/100
if I looked at the chart we have correctly about 2/3 (66.67%) or 1600 of you reserved your bronco within the first 48 hours (8pm 7/13-8pm 7/15) if that’s true for the entire USA we might be in for an interesting summer next year and here’s why.

figure only 2/3 (66.67%) will go through with ordering and purchasing. So 160,000. And 2/3 reserved that first 48 hours. So just over 100,000.

ford said deliveries will start in June 2021 (targeted) And extend into 2022. for the sake of this info I will guess it will end before the new year. So that’s 7 months to get all 160,000 out. Or 23,000 a month.

so it will take over 4 MONTHS (June - September) to deliver all the broncos ordered within those first 48 hours.
meaning If you ordered just 1 hour after someone else it could take a week longer to get yours.

BUT that’s we’re things get foggy.
Because Delivery’s will go in order AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to reservations.
however there are many factors at work.

1 Reservation Time - First in first out
2 First Editions - self explanatory
3 packaging (Body Style, Engine, Trim) - ford will try to build similar set ups at the same time.
4 Geographical location - where you are at will make a difference in time of delivery. People in the mid west will get their broncos before someone that orders at the same time as some one on the west cost.
5 Dealership size/ number of orders. - not a huge factor but if your ordering a bronco from BFE dealership it might take A little longer than city center mega dealer.

all of those factors aside from time of reservation could add a couple days To delivery.

dealer size and location is the main reason why you will be locked into your dealer on October 31st so ford can work out the logistics.

it will be interesting to see how long it actually takes ford to pump out all of these Broncos. Because 20-25,000 units a Month is a TALL ASK.

At full speed, the plant can do 28,000-30,000 cars a month (Of course there is no way they have 100% efficiency). And your numbers assume they are producing the cars the month they are delivered. Everything I've seen is the plan to start production in February. That would mean they could build up stock before shipping starts. Also i'm sure there is a limitation based on how many car haulers they can use. They may be able to contract out more, but assume there is a logistical limit to what they can ship in a month. Those would be good numbers to have. Also, no idea if they do this, but if they start producing in February would they start staging/moving some of the completed cars into the different regions and then do a final delivery to dealer from there? No idea how many cars they can store at the plant after manufacturing them.

 

[tgunn_ocs]

While trims being grouped together is a no brainer, I imagine time of actual orders in December will be just as important.

 

[perfectburrito]

This is Ford. Same company that scaled up Willow Run to push a completed B-24 off the line every hour in 1944. Pre-kaizen, pre-LEAN 6 Sigma, pre-robotics, etc.

A quarter of a million Broncos is a tall order, but they've got this...

 

[Razorbak86]

This is Ford. Same company that scaled up Willow Run to push a completed B-24 off the line every hour in 1944. Pre-kaizen, pre-LEAN 6 Sigma, pre-robotics, etc.

A quarter of a million Broncos is a tall order, but they've got this...

Imma pass that along to Gov. Whitmer and kindly suggest she take a back seat on this one.

 

[regularbronco]

I remember looking at the first forum Bronco ordered - and the number was 101014xxx something like that. So they started at 14000. Someone also mentioned the Mustang was a similar number. That being said - I am number 27k, so that puts 13k ahead of me and I got my order in around 10:30 launch night.

Our confirmation order email from Ford was 806 pm six minutes after open. My number is 101180xx, thats 14,000 number higher than someone at 10:30. Not sure about the numbers being chronological, some other factor in there.

 

[jaruss01]

Two major factors that work to our benefit...compared to what the analysis implies

1.

2/3rds of forum enthusiasts placed their order in the first 48 hours. i HIGHLY DOUBT that figure remains true for the other 99% of reservations from non-forum members. As OP's math assumes.

Wasnt there some speculation that there was 30/40/50k reservations during the first two days? Probably VERY loose numbers. But i doubt 2/3s of the 230k reservations were within the first 48 hours. A vast majority of non-enthusiasts reservation holders probably didnt even know when the reveal was going to happen. I have a feeling many may have seen all of the news articles after the reveal, started looking into the new bronco, reviewed the trim levels, and thereafter decided to throw down $100 bucks. Id be surprised if those series of events occurred all within the same day after the night of the reveal. I could imagine if 2/3rds of the reservations may have been within a week of the reveal, but not the day after the reveal. Compare that to a forum member who is getting advice on setting up their Ford account to gear up the night of the reveal, and has pre-reviewed all trims, and obsessed over this moment for 12+ months.

PLUS, you could always go back to see the date that Ford announced that the timing was pushed from "Spring" to "June". They didnt make that announcement on Day 3 after the reveal? Which leads me to believe that the 230k reservations were not as front loaded as we imagined. Likely more spread out over week 1 into week 2, rather that 48 hours of the reveal.

2.

I personally think there will be a 50% fall out on reservations converting to orders.

Which is probably a still a strong number when you consider what the conversion rate will be for Cybertruck reservation holders (similar marketing play). In the world we live in today, there may be 10s of thousands of people that reserved just to post a screenshot on social media, or to tell their friends, and have little to no interest in taking delivery. Ford (and teslas) marketing strategy works beautifully as a revenue generator and hype, but i dont think we could honestly believe that 2/3rds of 230k reservations will be filled.

How many idiots threw $100 bucks in the pot after seeing intriguing press release photos and the lowly advertised starting trim prices. Tons of people are not aware how the "Wrangler" pricing structure works. People on this board think we know everything about the Bronco, and still have big hesitations on how much these additional options will cost. Just image Joe Shmoe who thinks ~$3-4k of options will get them what they want (like other car pricing structure). Not to mention the elongated timing....how many want to wait until 2022 to spend $5k more than they thought it would cost?

And while not as impactful, but still a point to be made - what about current lessees? reservation holders that are timing up their current lease expiration date. It's very easy to lessees to say screw these delays, and walk into a dealership with 1,000 bucks and walk out with a new replacement lease (as opposed to extending a lease, running out of time, getting a long term rental to bridge the gap, etc, etc).

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

This just got posted a few minutes ago on Twitter ...

 

[mkennedy009]

This is a re-post of a video at the F150 plant in Dearborne

@9:35 they talk about 1300 trucks per day, or a truck every 53 seconds.
Not saying they can do that with the Bronco unless it is a big money maker like the F150.
251 working days x 1300 = 326,300 units.

It is possible to get the 240,000 reserves in 184 days or 37 weeks. Jan 1st to Sept 9th.

 

[BroncoHooves]

This is a re-post of a video at the F150 plant in Dearborne

@9:35 they talk about 1300 trucks per day, or a truck every 53 seconds.
Not saying they can do that with the Bronco unless it is a big money maker like the F150.
251 working days x 1300 = 326,300 units.

It is possible to get the 240,000 reserves in 184 days or 37 weeks. Jan 1st to Sept 9th.

Don't forget F150 is made at two plants, one in Kansas City.

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