My unified theory of build priority. (Please prove me wrong)

[Drex]

After trying to puzzle all the pieces together; the anecdotal walk ins and dealer stock (perhaps using fake retail orders, green and blue window attackers anyone?) getting serviced before identical reservation order stories, the recent Ford email stating they would pause retail orders to prioritize (presumably) reservation orders (with no change in allocation formula to count the existing reservations), the current stated policies of Ford still not prioritizing reservation orders over deal stock, and the worth of the reservation timestamp essentially being a tie breaker of sorts at each individual dealership and it leads me to only one theory that fits.

We know that Ford doesn't consider reservation numbers when allocating builds, but there still should be at least some reservations that can be built at the dealers who are getting more allocations simply because they aren't building that many Broncos. The number of short time order waits seems far too high, meaning the number of stock and walk in orders reportedly getting filled/scheduled on this forum alone in a few months seems statistically improbable in the extreme.

They shouldn't be getting scheduled that fast if reservations took priority in all allocations at each dealer. Again, only one working theory of which I can fit all the pieces; the reservation orders are initially automatically set at code 19 and the timestamp breaks that down to the individual order as the production priority, however since Ford went back to the traditional allocating system after the initial bait and switch reservation system, we have all assumed they didn't go all the way back, that the reservation orders have priority in all cases. I do not believe that is true. I think Ford went all the way back to the old system and the dealer priority codes trump the reservation timestamps if the dealer puts in a lower priority code. That if a dealer has all orders set at the same code, using 19 for example, the reservations get scheduled first (and there is nothing that says they are in Ford's policies, but we assume), but if the dealer uses a code like 10 on a walk in order or fake retail order for stock, they would get looked at before any reservation order sitting at 19. That would explain it all; short waits for some very late orders at certain dealerships, the emails from Ford make sense, etc.

It would give a dealer the ability to push orders they deem more important to the front of the line at that dealership and there is no doubt in anyone's mind that the dealers were screaming for that ability as they were used to having it before the reservation system was started, would just be going back to the traditional allocation system that allowed it.

In any event, that is my theory, some dealers are giving walk in orders a higher build priority (lower number codes) than the reservation orders at that dealer and Ford is treating it as a higher build priority than a timestamp order at that dealer. It wraps all the information up in a neat package, even all the tiny little nagging things that didn't make sense that I didn't bother listing (a way to statistically game the name match percentage among others)

Please prove me wrong or tell me another theory that works with everything because it is extremely discouraging to think this is the case for the reservation order holders at some dealers. (and a further betrayal of Ford's reservations promises if they allow it.) Sadly, it just makes the most sense to me.

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[DUSTYcazOREGON]

After trying to puzzle all the pieces together; the anecdotal walk ins and dealer stock (perhaps using fake retail orders, green and blue window attackers anyone?) getting serviced before identical reservation order stories, the recent Ford email stating they would pause retail orders to prioritize (presumably) reservation orders (with no change in allocation formula to count the existing reservations), the current stated policies of Ford still not prioritizing reservation orders over deal stock, and the worth of the reservation timestamp essentially being a tie breaker of sorts at each individual dealership and it leads me to only one theory that fits.

We know that Ford doesn't consider reservation numbers when allocating builds, but there still should be at least some reservations that can be built at the dealers who are getting more allocations simply because they aren't building that many Broncos. The number of short time order waits seems far too high, meaning the number of stock and walk in orders reportedly getting filled/scheduled on this forum alone in a few months seems statistically improbable in the extreme.

They shouldn't be getting scheduled that fast if reservations took priority in all allocations at each dealer. Again, only one working theory of which I can fit all the pieces; the reservation orders are initially automatically set at code 19 and the timestamp breaks that down to the individual order as the production priority, however since Ford went back to the traditional allocating system after the initial bait and switch reservation system, we have all assumed they didn't go all the way back, that the reservation orders have priority in all cases. I do not believe that is true. I think Ford went all the way back to the old system and the dealer priority codes trump the reservation timestamps if the dealer puts in a lower priority code. That if a dealer has all orders set at the same code, using 19 for example, the reservations get scheduled first (and there is nothing that says they are in Ford's policies, but we assume), but if the dealer uses a code like 10 on a walk in order or fake retail order for stock, they would get looked at before any reservation order sitting at 19. That would explain it all; short waits for some very late orders at certain dealerships, the emails from Ford make sense, etc.

It would give a dealer the ability to push orders they deem more important to the front of the line at that dealership and there is no doubt in anyone's mind that the dealers were screaming for that ability as they were used to having it before the reservation system was started, would just be going back to the traditional allocation system that allowed it.

In any event, that is my theory, some dealers are giving walk in orders a higher build priority (lower number codes) than the reservation orders at that dealer and Ford is treating it as a higher build priority than a timestamp order at that dealer. It wraps all the information up in a neat package, even all the tiny little nagging things that didn't make sense that I didn't bother listing (a way to statistically game the name match percentage among others)

Please prove me wrong or tell me another theory that works with everything because it is extremely discouraging to think this is the case for the reservation order holders at some dealers. (and a further betrayal of Ford's reservations promises if they allow it.) Sadly, it just makes the most sense to me.

Hate to burst your theory bubble: I am an early reservation holder. My initial order was a 19 priority code. I did not get built as my Dealer never did get all their MY21 allocations or perhaps I would have. Pushed to MY22 and of course had to re-order in October 21. The priority code on that order is a 10. Knowing my Dealer, the relationship I have with them, buying another vehicle there 3 months ago....I feel confident I am at the top of their internal list. Even with that 10 code....it means crap nothing. I still sit here, no VIN, no build date, no confidence I will get my BD this year either. My Dealer is upset as well and says communication from Ford is terrible.
I agree with one thing; those walk-in orders and Dealer stock orders should never have been allowed. The special series Broncos should have been put on hold until the backlog is caught up. I saw a 2 door at a local Dealer and read 3-4 posts today of people ordering (walk-ins) a few months ago and their Bronco is either scheduled or built already. It's all a pile of crap at this point. 628 days and still waiting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DUSTYcazOREGON]

I am pretty sure this is how it works. When I placed my order, the GM (a friend of mine)said he could put a rush on it but cautioned me that it might take a while because I had some hard to get options. I got my build confirmation a month later.

Did you have a reservation or was it a "walk-in" order? Thanks

 

[Liberty]

Sounds very plausible. Ford and dealers want priority for orders that generate the most money. With reservation holders, they’re stuck with customers with price protection and demanding MSRP or less. Also, Ford said you could move your reservation, but what dealer is willing to accept them. ? If you weren’t willing to go with them in the first place, why would they move you to the front of the line?

 

[DUSTYcazOREGON]

Not quite sure what you mean. I am good friends with the GM and buy all my vehicles for my business through them. If I need something, I just call and they order it or find it..

Did you have a reservation prior to walking in and ordering. Most of us reserved 7-14-2020 and paid a $100.00 reservation fee. Then we ordered in October of that year when order banks opened up. A huge majority of us are still waiting and have not been built. It sounds like you are a walk-in order.

 

[airishfan]

Did you have a reservation prior to walking in and ordering. Most of us reserved 7-14-2020 and paid a $100.00 reservation fee. Then we ordered in October of that year when order banks opened up. A huge majority of us are still waiting and have not been built. It sounds like you are a walk-in order.

order banks did not open tell end or Jan of 2021 even for people who put in reservation on 7-14-20

 

[Lucchese]

. . The number of short time order waits seems far too high, meaning the number of stock and walk in orders reportedly getting filled/scheduled on this forum alone in a few months seems statistically improbable in the extreme.
They shouldn't be getting scheduled that fast if reservations took priority in all allocations at each dealer . .

you forgot the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle . . lol

Agreed - shocking to many - the newly introduced '22 build-week spreadsheets expose the myth of 'reservation priority' - last Fall & Summer many here suspected this, that only about half the build-dates were going to reservations - but the spreadsheets really blow the lid off - it's much worse, at least 80% of the build-dates have nothing to do w reservations, allocations, or constraints - there is no priority sorting algorithm - even the dealers themselves are shocked by new walk-in orders getting scheduled ahead of their dozens of early reservations at the same dealer

the whole scheduling mess mostly bullshit

Ford caved to the mega-dealers at every turn - first w 'allocations' & dealer stock - now just throwing reservations under the bus - scheduling is mostly about keeping big dealers happy, personal influence, special favors, & throwing darts . .

. . and the mega-dealers hate reservations

 

[gryphon1231]

After trying to puzzle all the pieces together; the anecdotal walk ins and dealer stock (perhaps using fake retail orders, green and blue window attackers anyone?) getting serviced before identical reservation order stories, the recent Ford email stating they would pause retail orders to prioritize (presumably) reservation orders (with no change in allocation formula to count the existing reservations), the current stated policies of Ford still not prioritizing reservation orders over deal stock, and the worth of the reservation timestamp essentially being a tie breaker of sorts at each individual dealership and it leads me to only one theory that fits.

We know that Ford doesn't consider reservation numbers when allocating builds, but there still should be at least some reservations that can be built at the dealers who are getting more allocations simply because they aren't building that many Broncos. The number of short time order waits seems far too high, meaning the number of stock and walk in orders reportedly getting filled/scheduled on this forum alone in a few months seems statistically improbable in the extreme.

They shouldn't be getting scheduled that fast if reservations took priority in all allocations at each dealer. Again, only one working theory of which I can fit all the pieces; the reservation orders are initially automatically set at code 19 and the timestamp breaks that down to the individual order as the production priority, however since Ford went back to the traditional allocating system after the initial bait and switch reservation system, we have all assumed they didn't go all the way back, that the reservation orders have priority in all cases. I do not believe that is true. I think Ford went all the way back to the old system and the dealer priority codes trump the reservation timestamps if the dealer puts in a lower priority code. That if a dealer has all orders set at the same code, using 19 for example, the reservations get scheduled first (and there is nothing that says they are in Ford's policies, but we assume), but if the dealer uses a code like 10 on a walk in order or fake retail order for stock, they would get looked at before any reservation order sitting at 19. That would explain it all; short waits for some very late orders at certain dealerships, the emails from Ford make sense, etc.

It would give a dealer the ability to push orders they deem more important to the front of the line at that dealership and there is no doubt in anyone's mind that the dealers were screaming for that ability as they were used to having it before the reservation system was started, would just be going back to the traditional allocation system that allowed it.

In any event, that is my theory, some dealers are giving walk in orders a higher build priority (lower number codes) than the reservation orders at that dealer and Ford is treating it as a higher build priority than a timestamp order at that dealer. It wraps all the information up in a neat package, even all the tiny little nagging things that didn't make sense that I didn't bother listing (a way to statistically game the name match percentage among others)

Please prove me wrong or tell me another theory that works with everything because it is extremely discouraging to think this is the case for the reservation order holders at some dealers. (and a further betrayal of Ford's reservations promises if they allow it.) Sadly, it just makes the most sense to me.

Your theory is missing one key element, constrained parts/options. Ford factors this in when deciding which orders to build reservation or not.

If an order has a an option or package that has a constrained part chances are it's going to get skipped over for an order that does not, regardless of the order code the dealership sets.

 

[wetdog]

628 days the Kobayashi maru of ordering systems are in play.

 

[markpilip]

Your theory is missing one key element, constrained parts/options. Ford factors this in when deciding which orders to build reservation or not.

If an order has a an option or package that has a constrained part chances are it's going to get skipped over for an order that does not, regardless of the order code the dealership sets.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner. Occam suggests it was simply the supply chain constraints that FUBARed all the planning for a high demand vehicle. The output was a couple of spewings of half-produced Broncos to dirt/ice/mud/dust Mountain. I'd bet there will be more.

 

[MayhemMike]

Walk-ins keep getting tossed around. I am sure if a walk in order is placed at a dealership that doesn’t have the allotments, then it isn’t getting built/ delivered any time soon either. I do believe Ford is building stock vehicles in order to keep the line up and running. I say that based on how certain models show up at dealerships in waves . As an example, a few Base manual models have been showing up on local dealer lots in the past few weeks.

 

[Beach_Bum]

It's odd that B6G will hold on to certain premises as being etched in stone - "Priority Codes 10-19 carry the same weight". While at the same time, we have witnessed Ford back-track on promises and policy through this launch. Yes, for MY'21, we were all told the PC 10-19 had no influence on scheduling. But with the allocation change for MY'22 so did the priority considerations of orders for scheduling.

Now, first and foremost, allocation is the #1 constraint. If the dealer doesn't have an allocation, then a stripper Base isn't getting built. Ford will also balance the scheduling such that the dealer's allocation is the target to be met. It will fluctuate. No dealer is guaranteed X amount of Broncos.

For MY'22, the PC on an order does influence the priority among all the orders at that dealer, but not all the orders in the system. Some dealers have been adamant in not giving any preference such that all are set at PC'19.

I have benefited from the MY'22 PC. I submitted 3 identical orders at 3 different high allocation dealerships. 2 were set at PC'19 and the 1 was set at PC'10. 3 1/2 months from MY'22 order banks opening, I received a VIN and build day for the PC'10 order. It is built (3/14) and at the dealer (3/31) waiting for me to take delivery (4/13).

 

[kevin.gt]

Other possibilities: there are different lines per dealer for walk ins and reservations. Or each trim has a line (there are 10 badlands in front of yours, but a nearly identical walk in BD Sasquatch gets built). Or their scheduling prioritizes similar builds for efficiency.

Your priority code guess is possible, but we just don’t know.

Regarding why they stopped taking orders, I don’t think it was to prioritize reservations. I think its just that they don’t need any more “filler” builds. Late last year we had a lot of hard top reservations. hard tops were a major constraint. News was out suggesting people change to soft tops. I believe there was a short window where walk ins could “jump the line” by selecting the right options. That quickly changed when reservations changed orders to soft tops, and probably more importantly, ford had a major “chip” shortage fiasco affecting just about every bronco. I don’t believe any specific option is a greater constraint than the general “chips” needed for even a base model. Obvious that ford has enough orders for the year and needs no more filler builds, orders were stopped for ‘22.

 

[Bronco cat]

Did you have a reservation prior to walking in and ordering. Most of us reserved 7-14-2020 and paid a $100.00 reservation fee. Then we ordered in October of that year when order banks opened up. A huge majority of us are still waiting and have not been built. It sounds like you are a walk-in order.

Order banks opened in January of 21, build and price opened in October…..

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