Delivery Reality

[KyTruckPlant]

I was talking to a guy at the Public viewing of the Bronco at The Michigan Assembly Plant and he says they are building 540 Rangers a day, I do not know if that is per shift or both shifts combined. He said when they come back from shutdown they are going to be running 60% Broncos and 40% Rangers.

I think that is a per day figure.
It looks like they average 270~280 per shift.

Sponsored

 

[Badgerbrown]

For the most part, I don’t care when I get it - I just want them to build it RIGHT.

 

[tyrobronco]

I was talking to a guy at the Public viewing of the Bronco at The Michigan Assembly Plant and he says they are building 540 Rangers a day, I do not know if that is per shift or both shifts combined. He said when they come back from shutdown they are going to be running 60% Broncos and 40% Rangers.

So if we take these numbers, we are talking about 2 and a half months to make the first 25,000 Broncos.

 

[Cooknn]

If the numbers we're hearing are correct, the Bronco could end up being Ford’s new Model T. They'll sell a million of them if they can produce. IMHO, they should be retooling every possible production facility to build Bronco’s. My dad retired at what once was the St. Paul, MN truck plant. I think they built F150’s there. Can't understand why they knocked it down. With the Mississippi River right there they were able to generate their own electricity ?

 

[tyrobronco]

My dad retired at what once was the St. Paul, MN truck plant. I think they built F150’s there. Can't understand why they knocked it down. With the Mississippi River right there they were able to generate their own electricity ?

There are plenty of short-sighted decision makers only interested within 6 months vs far-seeing.

I really hope Ford doesn't make the mistake of hurrying Broncos out to capture the initial excitement and instead sees that if they make a great truck they will have a cash cow for the next 10+ years.

Nothing will kill the Bronco faster than a bunch of rabid fans demonstrating what a rushed PoS it is - and on the other hand, nothing will cement the Bronco as a great utility vehicle than a bunch of fans touting how great it is.

 

[rcbickle]

So the timeline has become more clear, as well as the total reservations. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION

So there has been roughly 240,000 total reservations. And here at Bronco6G we have roughly 2,400 going to members. or 1/100
if I looked at the chart we have correctly about 2/3 (66.67%) or 1600 of you reserved your bronco within the first 48 hours (8pm 7/13-8pm 7/15) if that’s true for the entire USA we might be in for an interesting summer next year and here’s why.

figure only 2/3 (66.67%) will go through with ordering and purchasing. So 160,000. And 2/3 reserved that first 48 hours. So just over 100,000.

ford said deliveries will start in June 2021 (targeted) And extend into 2022. for the sake of this info I will guess it will end before the new year. So that’s 7 months to get all 160,000 out. Or 23,000 a month.

so it will take over 4 MONTHS (June - September) to deliver all the broncos ordered within those first 48 hours.
meaning If you ordered just 1 hour after someone else it could take a week longer to get yours.

BUT that’s we’re things get foggy.
Because Delivery’s will go in order AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to reservations.
however there are many factors at work.

1 Reservation Time - First in first out
2 First Editions - self explanatory
3 packaging (Body Style, Engine, Trim) - ford will try to build similar set ups at the same time.
4 Geographical location - where you are at will make a difference in time of delivery. People in the mid west will get their broncos before someone that orders at the same time as some one on the west cost.
5 Dealership size/ number of orders. - not a huge factor but if your ordering a bronco from BFE dealership it might take A little longer than city center mega dealer.

all of those factors aside from time of reservation could add a couple days To delivery.

dealer size and location is the main reason why you will be locked into your dealer on October 31st so ford can work out the logistics.

it will be interesting to see how long it actually takes ford to pump out all of these Broncos. Because 20-25,000 units a Month is a TALL ASK.

With the COVID19, Civil Unrest, Elections, and who knows what else? Yeah, I think PATIENCE is the word of the day!

 

[Raptor911]

I put my order in on 7/20 and I don't mind waiting til fall to take delivery. I want Ford to put a few thousand units under their belt before I get mine.

 

[OC4x4]

So if we take these numbers, we are talking about 2 and a half months to make the first 25,000 Broncos.

I thought I was doing pretty good ordering on 7/14, then saw a thread that the reservation numbers started at 10100000. If true, then I'm about 89,000 in line. With a 35% conversion rate, this would knock it down to roughly 31,000. Ford will have to produce 5167 units per month for me to get it delivered by Christmas 2021.....I sincerely hope your correct and get a September delivery The wait is worth it for me, either way. On a different note.....This has been a great distraction from watching downtown Portland getting torched every night.

 

[cybersal]

I'm one of those that couldn't get in the first night, so I went to bed and did it the next morning. A good night sleep that probably cost me about 8 weeks.

You slept Release Night? I was on the Forum until 130am, couldn't sleep, and was back on at 6am!

 

[Akwoolf]

So the timeline has become more clear, as well as the total reservations. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION

So there has been roughly 240,000 total reservations. And here at Bronco6G we have roughly 2,400 going to members. or 1/100
if I looked at the chart we have correctly about 2/3 (66.67%) or 1600 of you reserved your bronco within the first 48 hours (8pm 7/13-8pm 7/15) if that’s true for the entire USA we might be in for an interesting summer next year and here’s why.

figure only 2/3 (66.67%) will go through with ordering and purchasing. So 160,000. And 2/3 reserved that first 48 hours. So just over 100,000.

ford said deliveries will start in June 2021 (targeted) And extend into 2022. for the sake of this info I will guess it will end before the new year. So that’s 7 months to get all 160,000 out. Or 23,000 a month.

so it will take over 4 MONTHS (June - September) to deliver all the broncos ordered within those first 48 hours.
meaning If you ordered just 1 hour after someone else it could take a week longer to get yours.

BUT that’s we’re things get foggy.
Because Delivery’s will go in order AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE to reservations.
however there are many factors at work.

1 Reservation Time - First in first out
2 First Editions - self explanatory
3 packaging (Body Style, Engine, Trim) - ford will try to build similar set ups at the same time.
4 Geographical location - where you are at will make a difference in time of delivery. People in the mid west will get their broncos before someone that orders at the same time as some one on the west cost.
5 Dealership size/ number of orders. - not a huge factor but if your ordering a bronco from BFE dealership it might take A little longer than city center mega dealer.

all of those factors aside from time of reservation could add a couple days To delivery.

dealer size and location is the main reason why you will be locked into your dealer on October 31st so ford can work out the logistics.

it will be interesting to see how long it actually takes ford to pump out all of these Broncos. Because 20-25,000 units a Month is a TALL ASK.

Another possible source of delay that has been tossed around: Michigan Governor

I remain positively optimistic...

 

[Razorbak86]

Delivery Reality... I have been noodling over this issue a bit, using a little "cowboy math" ?, which seems appropriate for a Bronco forum, and here is what I have come up with so far...

Starting Assumptions (Sources in Parenthesis)

1. Bronco reservations = 230,000 units (anonymous insider referenced on another thread).

2. Reservation conversion rate (% of reservations that convert to actual orders) = 50% (SWAG). ‍?‍

3. Pre-COVID capacity of the Michigan Assembly Plant ("MAP") in Wayne, Michigan = 5,300 units per week (Wikipedia). ?

4. Post-COVID efficiency = 67% of Pre-COVID efficiency (SWAG). ?‍

5. MAP production split between Broncos and Rangers = 60% Broncos / 40% Rangers on average, although the split likely varies significantly each week (anonymous MAP employee referenced on this thread).

"Cowboy Math" ?

A. Units ordered = 230,000 Bronco reservations X 50% reservation conversion rate = 115,000 Bronco units ordered.

B. Production rate = 5,300 units/week pre-COVID capacity X 67% Post-COVID efficiency X 60% Bronco production split = 2,131 Bronco units/week on average.

C. Time required to fill initial orders (Delivery Reality) = 115,000 Bronco units ordered / 2,131 Bronco units/week = 54 weeks.

Ugh!

Since my reservation was made on 7/20/2020, I am a little late in the queue, so I will be settling in for a long wait, if my assumptions are realistic. ?

Hopefully, I am being waaayyyyyyy too conservative ?, and I'll end up looking like an idiot ?, but I'll be getting my Bronco sooner, and I'm OK with that.

So while we all sit here twiddling our thumbs and waiting for the order window to open, please feel free to rip my analysis apart so I can refine it and make it better. Insider tips are welcome via PM, and I promise to protect your anonymity.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

Delivery Reality... I have been noodling over this issue a bit, using a little "cowboy math" ?, which seems appropriate for a Bronco forum, and here is what I have come up with so far...

Starting Assumptions (Sources in Parenthesis)

1. Bronco reservations = 230,000 units (anonymous insider referenced on another thread).

2. Reservation conversion rate (% of reservations that convert to actual orders) = 50% (SWAG). ‍?‍

3. Pre-COVID capacity of the Michigan Assembly Plant ("MAP") in Wayne, Michigan = 5,300 units per week (Wikipedia). ?

4. Post-COVID efficiency = 67% of Pre-COVID efficiency (SWAG). ?‍

5. MAP production split between Broncos and Rangers = 60% Broncos / 40% Rangers on average, although the split likely varies significantly each week (anonymous MAP employee referenced on this thread).

"Cowboy Math" ?

A. Units ordered = 230,000 Bronco reservations X 50% reservation conversion rate = 115,000 Bronco units ordered.

B. Production rate = 5,300 units/week pre-COVID capacity X 67% Post-COVID efficiency X 60% Bronco production split = 2,131 Bronco units/week on average.

C. Time required to fill initial orders (Delivery Reality) = 115,000 Bronco units ordered / 2,131 Bronco units/week = 54 weeks.

Ugh!

Since my reservation was made on 7/20/2020, I am a little late in the queue, so I will be settling in for a long wait, if my assumptions are realistic. ?

Hopefully, I am being waaayyyyyyy too conservative ?, and I'll end up looking like an idiot ?, but I'll be getting my Bronco sooner, and I'm OK with that.

So while we all sit here twiddling our thumbs and waiting for the order window to open, please feel free to rip my analysis apart so I can refine it and make it better. Insider tips are welcome via PM, and I promise to protect your anonymity.

I definitely see them hiring more people to fill those lines for the bronco. So I’m sure the production numbers will go up after the new year.

 

[fomoco]

I was told there would be no math.

 

[FirstOnRaceDay]

I was told there would be no math.

Im sorry. I’m A math guy.
just an fyi my Differential Equations exam in college was only 2 questions and it took me over 3 hours.

 

[JaxGtc]

I thought I was doing pretty good ordering on 7/14, then saw a thread that the reservation numbers started at 10100000. If true, then I'm about 89,000 in line. With a 35% conversion rate, this would knock it down to roughly 31,000. Ford will have to produce 5167 units per month for me to get it delivered by Christmas 2021.....I sincerely hope your correct and get a September delivery The wait is worth it for me, either way. On a different note.....This has been a great distraction from watching downtown Portland getting torched every night.

I think someone said they lowest number they saw was 10083xxx. Sorry, I just added 17k to your position.

Sponsored